ROYALS OP-ED PAGE - Kansas City Royals Notes, News, Opinions and the Occasional Rant

Closing It Out

2005-10-11T08:23:00.000-07:00

I have come to the realization that the Op-Ed Page needs to be retired due to neglect. As such, I want to thank everyone who visited this site during the year and helped it become popular and led to my joining the MostValueableNetwork. Barring a change in circumstances, I will no longer be posting at this site on anything but an extremely sporadic basis, if at all.

Please be sure to catch me at the following TWO sites:

ROYALS AUTHORITY - For all my Royals opinions and analysis, plus those of Craig Brown of Warning Track Power. We alternate weekdays and seldom go a day without posting. Also, great links to other Royal sites from there, too. Hey, we both managed to post through an 106 loss season, imagine what we will do if KC becomes a contender!

BIG RED ANALYSIS - No, not a Nebraska football site, but one devoted to Nebraska Cornhusker basketball. Yes, I know a Royals fan AND a Husker basketball fan, yet I still manage to get up every morning. A new site that will dissect Nebraska basketball and college ball in general.

For those of you following my series on the Royals, Twins and A's from the mid 90's to the present, I posted part five of that series over at Royals Authority this morning. Thanks again, everyone, and I hope you join us at the above two sites.

Three Different Plans - 1999

2005-09-16T05:51:00.000-07:00

At last, I have returned to this long neglected series, sorry for the delay.

Part four of our series covers the 1999 season. In this season, both KC and Minnesota regressed in wins by 8 and 7 respectively. Oakland, after improving by 9 games from 1997 to 1998, jumped up by 13 more in 1999. Take a look at the numbers and general lineups for 1999.

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
W/L	64-97	63-97	87-75
Attdnce	1,506,068	1,202,829	1,434,610
Runs Scrd	856	686	893
Runs Allwd	921	845	846
98 Payroll	$23,812,000	$20,407,500	$32,657,500
97 Payroll	$37,118,000	$27,930,000	$27,112,000
Avg Age	27.0	26.6	30.0

THE 1999 LINEUPS

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
C	Kreuter	Steinbach	Macfarlane
1B	Sweeney	Mientkiewicz	Giambi
2B	Febles	Walker	Phillips
3B	Randa	Koskie	Chavez
SS	Sanchez	Guzman	Tejada
LF	Damon	Allen	Grieve
CF	Beltran	Hunter	Christenson
RF	Dye	Lawton	Stairs
DH	Je. Giambi	Cordova	Jaha
SP	Rosado	Radke	Heredia
SP	Suppan	Hawkins	Haynes
SP	Witasick	Milton	Oquist
SP	Appier	Mays	Hudson
SP	Stein	Lincoln	Rogers
CL	Montgomery	Trombley	Taylor
BP	Service	Guardado	Groom

The off season between 1998 and 1999 was filled with the kind of player movement to which only the local papers would pay any attention. The Royals traded Juan LeBron for Joe Randa, and signed Rey Sanchez and Chad Kreuter. The Twins 'biggest' signing was of amateur free agent Bobby Kielty and, as a sign of going really young, releasing shortstop Pat Meares. Oakland added veteran pieces to go around their emerging young offensive stars, signing Tony Phillips, Tim Raines and John Jaha.

Kansas City traded away two starting pitchers during the season: Kevin Appier to Oakland on July 31st (Ape still pitched enough for the Royals to be shown as one of their starters in the above chart) and Glendon Rusch to the Mets on September 14th. Unless you consider Blake Stein, Brad Rigby or Dan Murray a major league pitcher, they got nothing in return for them. The Royals were a potent offensive team in 1999, ranking 7th in runs scored and 3rd in batting average - that with only two regulars over 30 (Rey Sanchez at 31 and Chad Kreuter at 34). They sported two 24 year old starters in Jeff Suppan and Jose Rosado who both pitched over 200 innings, but the rest of the staff was weak, particularly in the bullpen where three of the four leaders in appearance had ERAs over 6.00.

Minnesota cut ties with long time closer Rick Aguilera on May 21, 1999, trading him to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse. Otherwise their big moves were simply by bringing up the fruits of their execellent early/mid nineties draft. Keeping in mind that Jacque Jones was the 4th outfielder on that team, the Twins in 1999 were basically the group we Royal fans have become all too familiar with. Radke was Radke (219 IP, 3.75 ERA) and 23 year old Eric Milton logged 207 innings, but the rest of the Twins' staff pitched like a staff with an average age of 26.

Oakland was active in the in-season trade market as they fought to contend in the A.L. West. On July 23rd they traded Kenny Rogers for Terrance Long, followed shortly by trading Jeff Davanon and others for Omar Olivares and Randy Velarde. IN addition to the aforementioned Appier acquisition, they also snagged Jason Isringhausen for Billy Taylor on July 31st. Although just 13th in team batting average, Oakland was 4th in on-base percetange and 4th in runs scored. Despite a somewhat hodge-podge pitching staff (Gil Heredia's 200 innings were 58 more than the next highest starter) and they used 3 different closers (Taylor, Doug Jones & Isringhausen), Oakland did manage to finish 3rd in ERA.

Kansas City may have regressed in terms of won-loss, but there were reasons to be excited. They had slashed payroll by $14 million and IMPROVED their offense. Sweeney, Damon, Beltran and Dye were all all-stars in the making and none were older than 25. Plus, KC's best pitchers were both 24. The Royals needed more pitching (dead last in team ERA), a lot more when you remember they were counting on Blake Stein, Mac Suzuki, Dan Reichert and Chad Durbin to develop.
The Twins took their lumps in 1999, but had just one regular over 30 (Terry Steinbach) and only two pitchers over 30. They were 11th or lower in every offensive category except stolen bases (5th in the A.L.). Like KC, the Twins had two young starters in Radke and Milton and a whole bunch of question marks. However, Minnesota was looking to Joe Mays, Mark Redman and J.C. Romero to help in that area.
Oakland had fashioned a blend of young stars with some good veterans and made a good run at the playoffs. They had made trades as part of this run, but given up very little to do so. Besides adhering to the organizational code of getting on base, the A's also mashed 235 homers (2nd in the A.L.). They did sport 4 regulars over 30, but Tejada and Grieve were 23, Chavez 21 and Giambi still just 28. Their pitching staff, although a work in progress, was effective in 1999 and they had thrown 23 year old Tim Hudson into the mix.
Unlike Minnesota and KC, Oakland never went completely young between 1995 and 1999. Instead opting to blend veterans with young players, and bringing in their youngsters in phases. It was clearly an effective tactic. By contrast, the Twins had been biding their time for their prospects to get close and in 1999 pretty much turned the team over to them all at once. Kansas City had waffled between the two tactics, and spent too much money in the interim doing so, but frankly at the end of 1999 they did not look a lot different than either the Twins or the A's...on paper anyway.

The Draft and The Systems
The Royals selected Kyle Snyder with the 7th pick in the 1999 Amateur Draft. The Twins, picking 5th, selected B.J. Garbe and the Athletics, after nabbing Mark Mulder in the 98 draft, took Barry Zito with the 9th pick. Josh Beckett went number 2 to Florida, but then Eric Munson was the second most successful pick of the top 6 - so not a great early draft. Royal fans can salivate at having Zito (or Ben Sheets who went number 10) instead of Snyder, but KC then picked Mike MacDougal with the 25th overall pick and Jimmy Gobble with the 43rd. Looking at who went in the top 50 in this draft, the Royals really did alright in 1999.

Aside from the three mentioned above, Kansas City also drafted Wes Obermueller in round 2, Ken Harvey in round 5 and Mark Ellis in round 9.

Minnesota's 1999 draft was better than 1998, but then 1998 sucked. They picked Justin Morneau in round 3 and Terry Tiffee in the 26th.

After drafting Zito, Oakland added Ryan Ludwick in the second round and not much else. However, when you draft Hudson in 1997, Mulder in 1998 and Zito in 1999, you don't have to add much else.

The Royals system had Mark Quinn up for a look in September, but was otherwise filled with a bunch of pitchers long on potential and short on performance. Sal Fasano and Dee Brown were in the mix, too, but...well, nevermind.

After going very young in 1999, the Twins were ready to bring in A.J. Pierzynski to catch and had left field to Jacque Jones. As mentioned above, Mays, Redman and Romero, joined by Kyle Lohse were also in line to contribute. The Twins had not done a good job of drafting in the recent couple of seasons, but were young enough at the major league level to withstand that. Perhaps their only failing at this point was to not give David Ortiz a chance (just 20 at-bats in 1999)

Oakland had traded an old closer (Billy Taylor) for a young one (Jason Isringhausen) and was poised to unveil the second member of 'The Big Three'. Terrance Long (stop laughing Royal fans) was in line to improve the outfield and two young catchers, A.J. Hinch and Ramon Hernandez, were in the system.

Summary
Oakland had 'arrived' in 1999, almost making the playoffs and becoming an offensive force in the American League. They were in the process of turning a patched together, albeit effective, pitching staff into a major strength and had a bonafide superstar in Jason Giambi.

The Twins had gone young in a big way, paid the price and were hoping to have the right core to get dramatically better in 2000. There was talk of contraction in Minneapolis/St. Paul as attendance and payroll were both quite low. No one gave Minnesota a second thought, other than to think they might not exist in a couple of years.

The Royals had to be thinking they were on the edge of getting better. Their offense was better than Minnesota's and their pitching no worse. Oakland had contended in 1999 without a single star pitcher and great offense, could not the Royals do the same in 2000?

The new millenium was about to dawn and with it two contenders and an also ran.

Three Different Plans - 1998

2005-08-30T12:09:00.000-07:00

Part three of our series covers the 1998 season. All three teams improved marginally in their won-loss records from 1997 (see Part Two below) to 1998. Oakland by 9 games, Kansas City by 5 games and the Twins by 2 games. Here are the raw numbers and general lineups for 1998.

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
W/L	72-89	70-92	74-88
Attdnce	1,494,875	1,165,976	1,232,343
Runs Scrd	714	734	804
Runs Allwd	899	818	866
98 Payroll	$37,118,000	$27,930,000	$27,112,000
97 Payroll	$39,350,000	$27,150,000	$23,950,000
Avg Age	28.8	29.3	29.9

THE 1998 LINEUPS

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
C	Sweeney	Steinbach	Hinch
1B	King	Ortiz	Giambi
2B	Offerman	Walker	Spiezio
3B	Palmer	Coomer	Blowers
SS	Lopez	Meares	Tejada
LF	Conine	Cordova	Henderson
CF	Damon	Nixon	Christenson
RF	Sutton/Dye	Lawton	Greive
DH	Morris	Molitor	Stairs
SP	Belcher	Radke	Rogers
SP	Rapp	Hawkins	Candiotti
SP	Rosado	Milton	Haynes
SP	Rusch	Tewksbury	Oquist
SP	Pichardo	Morgan	Stein
CL	Montgomery	Aguilera	Taylor
BP	Service	Guardado	Mathews

Prior to the season, all three teams made some rather uninspiring 'station keeping' signings of or trades for veterans players. Kansas City went out and signed Hal Morris, Terry Pendleton and Pat Rapp. They also traded Blaine Mull (yeah, I don't know him either) for Jeff Conine. Minnesota signed Otis Nixon , Mike Morgan and Orlando Merced. Oakland did their part by signing the likes of Mike Blowers, Rickey Henderson and Kevin Mitchell.

The Royals most exciting news of the offseason probably generated no mention of all at the time. On December 16, 1997, they signed an amateur free agent by the name of Runelvys Hernandez. They also made a trade very early in the 1998 season, moving Mike Macfarlane to Oakland in exchange for Shane Mack. Jay Bell and Tom Goodwin were gone and Jermaine Dye appeared in just 60 major league games in 1998, so the Royals went from scoring 747 runs in 1997 to 714 in 1998. Kevin Appier was injured and his 236 innings and 3.40 ERA were replaced by Pat Rapp's 188 innings and 5.30 ERA and the pitching staff suffered accordingly.

Minnesota made a very interesting trade prior to the 1998 season. With Todd Walker slated to play second base for the Twins, they moved Chuck Knoblauch to New York for four prospects and cash. Two of those prospects were Cristian Guzman and Eric Milton. Walker proceeded to hit .316 in his first full season and the 22 year old Milton managed to log 172 innings. Outside of Walker and 39 year old Otis Nixon, however, the Twins had a very non-descipt offense and could not take advantage of a pitching staff that surrendered 43 fewer runs than in 1997.

Oakland improved by the most of all three teams in 1998 and it is not very hard to see why. After having no pitcher throw more than 134 innings in 1997, the A's had four starters log 175 innings or more, led by two veterans free agent signees in Kenny Rogers and Tom Candiotti. With essentially four rookies in their every day lineup, Oakland had just two pitchers on their staff under 25 (Jimmy Haynes and Blake Stein).

Although better than in 1997, there was no confusing any of these three teams for a contender. With the exception of Damon and part-timers Sweeney and Dye, the Royals offense was all nearing or over 30 years old. With Appier hurt and the 36 year old Montgomery compiling a 4.98 ERA as a closer, some of what happened to their pitching staff could not be helped. They still had a pair of promising 23 year olds in Jose Rosado and Glendon Rusch and late in the year added another young pitcher in Jeff Suppan. Minnesota was faced with replacing aging Paul Molitor, Terry Steinbach and Otis Nixon and the spectre of a declining Marty Cordova. They had young arms in Hawkins, Milton, Radke and Frankie Rodriguez, but a bullpen that had only one reliever of note with an ERA under 4.00. Oakland had handed shortstop to 22 year old Miquel Tejada (who hit .233 in 365 at-bats) and catcher to A.J. Hinsh (who hit .231 in 337 at-bats), but they did have the rookie of the year in Ben Grieve and an ever improving Jason Giambi to replace Mark McGwire. They had patched together a mostly veteran pitching staff to take the heat off a young offense and were rewarded by a team that was learning how to win.

The Draft and The Systems
The Royals selected Jeff Austin with the 4th pick in the 1997 Amateur Draft. The Twins, picking 6th, selected Ryan Mills and with the number two overall pick the Athletics made a spectacular pick of Mark Mulder. Sandwiched between KC and Minnesota was St. Louis' pick of J.D. Drew, but below those in the first round were a bevy of prospects: Austin Kearns (7th), Sean Burrougsh (9th), Jeff Weaver (14th), Brad Lidge (17th) and C.C. Sabathia (20th).

After Austin, the Royals also had the 30th and 31st selections, taking (and wasting) them on Matt Burch and Chris George (Brad Wilkerson and Aaron Rowand went 33rd and 35th). Other players taken by KC in 1998 were Paul Phillips in the 9th round and Shawn Sedlacek in the 14th.

Minnesota absolutely wiffed in the 1998 draft, the most notable player they drafted was Juan Padilla in the 24th round. As we will see, however, Minnesota had already done their good draftwork earlier.

In addition to Mulder (who followed the drafting of Tim Hudson in 1997), Oakland added one other solid ballplayer by picking Eric Byrnes in the 8th round.

The Royals system was about to contribute Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles, both of whom were up for a cup of coffee in September of 1998. Jermaine Dye was shuttling between Omaha and KC and Mike Sweeney was still toiling away behind the plate.

The outstanding season complied by Todd Walker was just the beginning of the Twins reaping the benefits of the good drafts of the early nineties. Corey Koskie, Doug Mientkiewicz, Torii Hunter and A.J. Pierzynski all had gotten a taste of the bigs with September callups and there was hope that Hawkins, Milton, Frankie Rodriguez and former number one pick Dan Serafini would join Brad Radke to form a young and talented rotation. Maybe even a raw talent like big David Ortiz might turn into something after hittin .277 with 9 homers in 278 at-bats in 1998.

Oakland had Ben Grieve to join Jason Giambi and were hoping their young shortstop Tejada would improve. Eric Chavez had hit .311 in 45 September at-bats and there were those two young arms, Mulder and Hudson, coming up to join the promising Jimmy Haynes.

Summary
The Twins and A's had both upped their payroll, mainly to plug gaps with veterans while they waited for youngsters to be ready. Oakland had invested wisely in Candiotti and Rogers to keep their team competitive and somebody (Mike Blowers) had to play third so Chavez could develop - particularly given the rookie Tejada was already playing on that side of the infield. Otis Nixon was better at 39 than Torii Hunter would have been at 22. While the likes of Ron Coomer and Terry Steinbach bought time for the Twins to develop Pierzynski and Koskie.

Even the Royals, while fielding a rather ininspring collection of veterans around Johnny Damon, had the offense on the way in Beltran, Sweeney and others. They even had some hope in some young arms. Probably Kansas City's biggest transgression at this point was carrying a high thirties million dollar payroll while both Oakland and Minnesota were saving money for later.

The winds of change, however, were about to begin blowing and three times that were so very similar for over ten years were suddenly about to get very different. Next installment: 1999.

Just a Quick Note

2005-08-30T07:26:00.000-07:00

Just a quick post to let you know that I am still continuing on with our "Three Different Paths" series detailing the Royals, Twins and A's from 1996 forward. A busy couple of weeks have kept me from doing the next post in the series, but will do so shortly.

As always, catch me over at Royals Authority along with Craig from Warning Track Power.

Also, welcome back to the Blogger world (can I say that if I also write for MVN?) to Kevin Agee at Kevin's Royal Blog.

Three Different Plans - 1997

2005-08-19T09:58:00.000-07:00

Part two of our study of KC, Minnesota and Oakland and the paths they took to success or oblivion focuses on the year 1997. As we discussed in the Introduction posted earlier (or below for those of you dealing in verticality instead of time), all three organizations experienced a great deal of success in the late eighties and into the early nineties and were, if not good, competitive in 1996 all finishing with 75 or more wins. Take a look at some of the overall numbers for 1997.

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
W/L	67-94	68-94	65-97
Attdnce	1,517,638	1,411,064	1,264,218
Runs Scrd	747	772	764
Runs Allwd	820	861	946
97 Payroll	$39,350,000	$27,150,000	$23,950,000
96 Payroll	$19,998,000	$17,390,000	$21,161,000
Avg Age	29.1	28.8	27.6

THE 1997 LINEUPS

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	KANSAS CITY	MINNESOTA	OAKLAND
C	Macfarlane	Steinbach	Mayne
1B	King	Stahoviak	McGwire
2B	Offerman	Knoblauch	Spiezio
3B	Paquette	Coomer	Brosius
SS	Bell	Meares	Bournigal
LF	Damon	Cordova	Giambi
CF	Goodwin	Becker	Mashore
RF	Dye	Lawton	Stairs
DH	Davis	Molitor	Canseco
SP	Appier	Radke	Karsay
SP	Rosado	Robertson	Prieto
SP	Belcher	Tewksbury	Telgheder
SP	Rusch	Hawkins	Oquist
SP	Pittsley	Aldred	Haynes
CL	Montgomery	Aguilera	Taylor
BP	Pichardo	Guardado	Small

Prior to the season, the Royals traded a young Joe Randa and disappointing Jeff Granger for veterans Jay Bell and Jeff King. They also swapped Keith Lockhart and Michael Tucker for Jermaine Dye and Jamie Walker. Although Dye was a couple of years away from being an effective regular, that was a nice trade (Walker was, and still is a servicable reliever in the majors). Putting that lineup in the table, makes you think that team should have been better (Bip Roberts and Mike Sweeney were the top reserves), just as it appeared on the eve of 1997.

The Twins big off season moves were the signing of two veteran free agents: Bob Tewksbury and Terry Steinbach. They had what they thought was a solid outfield for years to come in Cordova, Becker and Lawton and a young gun ready to become an ace (Brad Radke - maybe you've heard of him). Adding the veteran Tewksbury to a young staff (Latroy Hawkins, Todd Ritchie and Frankie Rodriguez) made a lot of sense.

Oakland traded John Wasdin to get Jose Canseco back, signed Brent Mayne and Dave Magadan and otherwise did nothing of note prior the beginning of 1997.

As the records reflect, none of the three teams were anywhere near good in 1997. The Royals, despite being in the middle of the pack in pitching (4 starters threw 170+ innings, wouldn't we kill for that now?), simply could not hit enough to win ballgames (12th in runs scored, 10th in average, 12th in slugging). Essentially, their veterans underachieved. The Twins finished 10th in runs scored and 13th in ERA, despite 240 innings from Radke and a 4.22 ERA from Tewksbury. Cordova, Becker and Lawton all hit .264 or below. Molitor and Knoblauch were both very good, but Ron Coomer was their 3rd best hitter - not exactly a recipe for success. Oakland simply could not pitch (team ERA 5.49). No one on the A's logged more than 134 innings and only veteran closer Billy Taylor managed to survive the season with an ERA under 4.00. Their offense, led by a young Jason Giambi, Matt Stairs and McGwire, was not bad, but nowhere near good enough to compensate for a staff that resembled...well, resembled the 2004 Royals.

The Draft and The Systems
The Royals selected Dan Reichert with the 7th pick in the 1997 Amateur Draft. The Twins, picking 9th, selected Michael Cuddyer and at number 11 the A's took Chris Enochs. To be fair, guys like J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells went in the top five and the only other really good players to go in the top fifty were Jon Garland (10th), Lance Berkman (16th) and Adam Kennedy (20th), so this draft was not exactly littered with obvious major leaguers.

After selecting Reichert, Kansas City picked Jeremy Affeldt in the third round and unless you want to count Kris Wilson, Jason Gilfillan and Mike Tonis, did not pull in any other players of note.

Minnesota nabbed Matthew LeCroy with the 50th overall pick, Michael Restovich in round two, J.C. Romero in round 21 and Nick Punto in round 33. Romero turned into a nice pick and LeCroy is serviceable, but truthfully the Twins had already laid their ground work with excellent drafts in the years preceeding 1997.

After whiffing on Enochs with the 11th overall pick, the A's did little better with the 21st overall pick, tabbing Eric DuBose. In fact, no one stands out in this Oakland draft, EXCEPT FOR A GUY NAMED TIM HUDSON (picked in the 6th round). Sometimes it only takes one player to make a draft. I think Tim Hudson qualifies as that type of player.

The Royals system had already produced regulars in Damon, Rusch and Rosado and two others who were traded for regulars (Tucker and Randa). Mike Sweeney was still proving that he could not play catcher, but was on the verge of an offensive breakout. Carlos Beltran, Mark Quinn and Jeremy Giambi were in the pipeline.

The Twins were stocked, although they may not have known just how well. Todd Walker had gotten his feet wet in the majors during 1997 and the 1990 and 1991 drafts had already accounted for 10 players on the major league roster. The pipeline was bursting with Torii Hunter, A.J. Pierzynski, Corey Koskie, Doug Mientcewicz, Jacque Jones and some guys who would not have an impact with the Twins but turned out alright: David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Jose Valentin, Travis Lee and Danny Kolb.

Oakland had Jason Giambi poised for stardom and likes of Mark Bellhorn, Tony Batista, Miguel Tejada, Ben Grieve and Eric Chavez at various stages of development. They also had drafted a future ace in Tim Hudson.

Summary
The Royals spent a lot of money on veteran hitting to joing a solid starting rotation and failed miserably. By mid 1997, they were sellers at the trade deadline. Minnesota had also spent some money on veteran players, but in an attempt to hold the line while their considerable minor league wealthy developed. Oakland was about to part ways with the Bash Brothers for good. They knew they had the offense coming up, could they ever find enough pitching?

Check back at the end of the week and see what happened as these teams rolled into 1998.

Three Different Plans - Introduction

2005-08-18T12:02:00.000-07:00

This is the first in a series of posts in which we are going to follow three organizations: Kansas City, Minnesota and Oakland. All three teams can be classified as 'small market teams', all experienced a great deal of success before the landscape of baseball changed dramatically in the 1990s and all had very similar records in both 1996 and 1997. It is the 1997 season that will serve as our starting point for this series. However, before we embark on a season by season analysis, let's first take a quick look at what these franchises did leading up to 1997.

TEAM PERFORMANCE BACKGROUND
Let us begin with our beloved Royals. Although they had not been in the playoffs since winning the 1985 World Series, Kansas City had remained competitive: finishing over .500 six of the next eleven years and winning over 70 games even in the down years. No, they weren't great, but the Royals were decent and at times still in a pennant race late in the season. In fact, before the strike prematurely ended the 1994 season, KC was 64-51 and giving every impression that they could win the division.

Minnesota had experienced greater successes (two World Championships and a 90-72 season in 1992) and also greater failures (1993 71-91, 1994 53-60, 1995 56-88). Oakland had been in three consecutive Series from 1988 through 1990 and won 96 games as late as 1992. Like the Twins, Oakland had fallen on hard times in the mid 90's winning just 68 games in 1993 and posting very average 51-63 and 67-77 marks in 1994 and 1995.

All three teams then made one last gasp at respectability in 1996 and fell back to earth in 1997. Take a look at the records for those two years:

1996 Records
Minnesota 78-84
Kansas City 75-86
Oakland 78-84

1997 Records
Minnesota 68-94
Kansas City 67-94
Oakland 65-97

DRAFTING BACKGROUND
Now, let's take a look at how these teams drafted leading up to 1997. One thing that truly stood out as I reveiwed past drafts: if the NFL draft is an inexact science, the NBA draft is all about projecting talent, then the MLB draft is pretty much like playing KENO. As such, I am not going to take time pointing out the spectacular failures all three organizations had, but instead will simply touch on those players that turned into decent to excellent major leaguers. You will be able to tell the success and depth of each year's draft simply by the number of players shown and the careers they had. The numbers in parantheses is the round in which the player was drafted.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
1990 - Phil Hiatt (8)
1991 - Shane Halter (5), Mike Sweeney (10), Joe Randa (11)
1992 - Michael Tucker (1), Johnny Damon (1), Jon Lieber (2)
1993 - Glendon Rusch (17), Sal Fasano (37)
1994 - Jose Rosado (12), Jose Santiago (70)
1995 - Carlos Beltran (2), Mark Quinn (11)
1996 - Jeremy Giambi (6), Jason Simantacchi (21), Kiko Calero (27)

This was not a horrible job of drafting, especially on the offensive side (the core of one of the best offensive teams in the A.L. in 2000 came from the above).

MINNESOTA TWINS
1990 - Todd Ritchie (1), Rich Becker (3), Pat Meares (12), Eddie Guardado (21)
1991 - David McCarty (1), Latroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13)
1992 - Dan Serafini (1)
1993 - Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Jose Valentin (3), Dan Kolb (11), Alex Cora (12)
1994 - Todd Walker (1), A.J. Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26)
1995 - Mark Redman (1), Doug Mientkiewicz (5)
1996 - Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2)

A lot of names here that formed the basis of the Twins success of the recent years. Imagine if some of these guys (Lee, Kolb, Varitek not to mention a guy named David Ortiz acquired in a minor league trade) had actually matured into the players they are now with the Twins.

OAKLAND A'S
1990 - Todd Van Poppel (1), Tanyon Sturtze (23)
1991 - Brent Gates (1), Darrell May (14)
1992 - Jason Giambi (2), Dan Wengert (4), Robert Fick (45)
1993 - John Wasdin (1), Jeff D'Amico (2), Scott Spezio (6)
1994 - Ben Grieve (1) *also drafted Ryan Drese & Tim Hudson as high schoolers but did not sign them this year
1995 - Ariel Prieto (1), Mark Bellhorn (2), David Newhan (17), Jeff Davanon (26)
1996 - Eric Chavez (1), A.J. Hinch (3)

It's kind of hard to disrespect a list that has Giambi and Chavez on it, but clearly Oakland was not outdrafting anyone in the early nineties. Some of these guys, however, (Wengert, Gates, Grieve, Spezio) gave Oakland some decent seasons before their production fell off.

So, that is where these three organizations stood on the eve of the 1997 season. A season in which all three would struggle mightily. In our next installment, we'll take a look at the lineups and the salaries that led to their dismal 1997 records, We'll also take a look at the 1997 drafts of all three teams.
Look at the names

Scoring Runs - The Good, The Efficient and The Ugly

2005-08-05T13:41:00.000-07:00

I thought it might be interesting to compare the American League when it came to how efficient various teams are when it came to scoring the runners they get on base and, obviously, how efficient they were at keeping their opponets from doing the same. Below is a table, in order by won-loss record, reflecting those numbers.

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Team	Total Base Runners	Pct Runners Scored	Opp Baserunners	Opp Pct Scored
CHI	1308	40.3%	1282	33.6%
BOS	1521	39.1%	1347	38.6%
LAA	1307	38.2%	1289	33.4%
OAK	1395	37.2%	1254	36.6%
NYY	1476	39.3%	1362	39.8%
CLE	1366	36.4%	1249	36.5%
TOR	1381	38.2%	1279	35.6%
MIN	1345	34.8%	1253	36.1%
TEX	1393	41.9%	1432	38.6%
DET	1329	36.9%	1296	37.6%
BAL	1351	37.2%	1391	37.5%
SEA	1267	37.3%	1377	36.2%
TAM	1373	37.1%	1535	42.5%
KCR	1281	36.9%	1508	40.6%

Although, it is not suprising to see all the teams with a shot at the post season to be among the most proficient at scoring their runners and generally (with the exception of the Yankees) much better at keeping their opponets from doing the same, here are some very interesting tidbits:

Chicago and Anaheim (yes, I said Anaheim intentionally) rank 11th and 12th in total number of baserunners - ahead of only mighty Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Yet, those two teams have dramatic spreads in the percentage of runners they score versus the percentage they allow to score. Chicago is second only to Texas in scoring 40.3% of their baserunners and Anaheim is well above average at 38.2%, but they both are at the top of the league in allowing less than 34% of their opponets baserunners to cross home plate.

Why is Minnesota fading in the wild card race? Well, look no farther than a league low 34.8% rate of baserunners scored. Although no one will confuse Minnesota with Texas offensively, the Rangers are putting less than one extra baserunner on base per game than the Twins. The Rangers, however, score their baserunners at a league leading 41% rate, fully seven points better than Minnesota. Why aren't the Rangers better (and they are over .500 anyway)? Well, the allow opponets to score 38.6% of their runners, identical to Boston and much better than New York, but at 1,432 baserunners allowed, the Rangers let too many guys on base (only Tampa Bay and Kansas City allow more).

These number reveal nothing earthshaking. After all, good hitting teams get guys on base and generally will hit more in. Good pitching teams will limit runners on base and pitch out of trouble when they do. Still, I believe that the above percentages do provide a glimpse into which teams combine good pitching with good defense and solid fundamental play which translates into low percentages of opponet baserunners scoring. On the offensive side, I think it reflects not only who can hit the ball, but hit the ball when it matters, move runners along when they need to, and run the bases efficiently.

For a recap of a dismal Royals' weekend, remember to check us out over at The Royals Authority.

Defensive Rating Inefficiencies

2005-07-31T20:14:00.000-07:00

Baseball was seemingly invented for statistical purposes. One can absolute be buried by batting and pitching stats. There are batting stats to overule batting stats to disprove other batting stats. Yet, when it comes to analyzing defense, statistical analysis is still somewhat scant.

Sure, you have the old reliable - fielding percentage - widely regarded as highly inaccurate. We have range factors and zone ratings, which surely give us a better picture of defensive performance. Then there is Defensive Efficiency, essentially the percentage of balls in play that a team turns into outs.

Does this translate into accurately reflecting a team's defensive prowess? Take a look at the Top 5 A.L. defensive teams according to defensive efficiency the last three years (2005 to date):

2005 - Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland, Seattle, Anaheim
2004 - Tampa, Seattle, Oakland, Chicago, Boston
2003 - Seattle, Oakland, Tampa, Chicago, Anaheim

Interestly, two of the top five in 2005 (Chicago and Anaheim) are also in the top five in fielding percentage. In 2004, Chicago and Oakland managed top fives in both categories, while in 2003 Chicago and Seattle managed the feat (Seattle actually leading the league in both categories).

I was not suprised to see Seattle number one in 2003, when they had essentially three centerfielders in the outfield (Winn, Cameron, Ichiro) and Tampa Bay, too, for all its faults, has speedy and proficient defensive players. Given their successes, Anaheim and Oakland being regular top fivers is not all that eyeraising. However, isn't interesting that the White Sox, a team that supposedly just committed to speed and defense this spring, have been solidly in the Top 5 in both Defensive Efficiency and Fielding Percentage all the way back to 2002?

Once adjusted for diffences in ballparks (courtesy Baseball Prospectus) the range in Defensive Efficiency from first to last is roughly .720 down to .670, year in year out. What does that translate into? Basically, it is five balls in play out of 100 that the best defensive team converts for outs that the worst team lets fall in for hits. Or, more to the point, one ball per game. What does one out mean? Not much in a 7-2 loss, probably a lot more in a 2-1 loss.

Still, is Defensive Efficiency the be all and end all in ascertaining defensive prowess? How do we account for missing the cutoff man, for an outfielder cutting off the gap and turning a probable double into just a long single? Or maybe even more importantly, keeping the runner on first from going first to third on a single. I imagine many, if not most, teams are intricately tracking evey ball in play, every exchange, every misstep, and attempting to compile this mountain of data into some usable measure, but they are not sharing that with the public.

Until such a time as the major leagues do provide this data, we may all be left trying to cobble together a clear picture of defensive worth from a myriad of old and new statisical measuring devices.

Why Do the Sox and Twins Win?

2005-07-21T09:31:00.000-07:00

White Sox Team Batting - 260/321/408/719
KC Royals Team Batting - 262/320/401/721
Minnesota Team Batting - 266/332/404/736

Well, there is an easy and obvious answer: PITCHING. Chicago and Minnesota are first and second in the American League in team earned run average (3.62 & 3.65 respectively), while our beloved Royals are second to last at 5.25. Is that all there is to it? If that was the only answer, then why would Cleveland and their 3.81 ERA (4th in the A.L.) be mired at the .500 mark (how many people in KC would love to be 'mired' there by the way?). The Indians .745 OPS is actually higher than both that of Chicago and Minnesota.

Well, let's dig deeper. With the Twins it really is quite simple. First, their pitching is very good top to bottom. Imagine how good it would be if J.C. Romero was pitching up to form. Secondly, the Twins' team batting line with runners in scoring position is: 283/370/435/805 allowing them to score 8 more runs in 2 less games than the Royals. Not a big difference, save that their pitchers are giving up more than a run less per game.

Then there are the White Sox, a team I freely admit I completely disrepected at the start of this season. A team I have spent all season waiting for it to drop off the edge of the earth. A team that is going to make the playoffs. A TEAM THAT HAS SCORED 39 MORE RUNS THAN THE ROYALS IN TWO LESS GAMES.

Pitching aside, and I by no means intend to minimize the impact of great pitching, the Sox being ranked 6th in the league in runs scored while posting similar hitting numbers to the anemic Royals is worth delving into. Let's take a look at four A.L. Central teams with runners in scoring position (no idea why I have ignored the Tigers, I just have - plus they are pretty much just in the middle of the road on all stats, including won-loss, so there's no statistical 'coolness' about them):
Minnesota - 283/370/435/805
Kansas City - 271/338/402/740
Chicago - 262/335/403/738
Cleveland - 256/334/380/714

Other than the Twins' proficiency (discussed above) nothing special here with regard to the Sox. They essentially hit the same overall as they do with runners in scoring position. Okay, how about with runners on base period?
Minnesota - 295/370/439/808
Chicago - 283/341/447/778
Cleveland - 259/327/396/722
Kansas City - 257/316/389/704

Now, both Minnesota and Chicago are pretty good hitting teams with runners on base, which in turn means they are moving runners into scoring position more often than either the Indians or Royals do. The Sox also hit home runs at a far greater rate than KC (114-77), but conversely Chicago has 28 LESS doubles and 16 LESS triples than the Royals. No wonder chicks dig the long ball. Yet, Cleveland with just 9 less homers and 42 more doubles than Chicago still cannot score runs at near the rate of the Sox and have squandered a pretty decent team pitching year.

Other sources have tracked runners in scoring position hitting and there is very little trend year to year, with teams or players. Throughout history, even the great 'clutch hitters' performances with runners in scoring position have varied dramatically. My guess is that is a very narrow statistical slice - hence the variation. Yet, runners on base anywhere anytime happens far more often. What a team does with a runner on first and one out would logically have a great impact on scoring runs.

The White Sox go from a below average offensive unit in general to an above average team anytime runners get on base. Not to mention that they have also stolen 102 bases this year (at a 73% success ratio). That's 102 times a single turned into a double, while giving up an out to do that only once every other game.

Simply put, clutch hitting (like the Twins have this year) is nice, but timely hitting (like the Sox have) combined with speed and pitching would appear to be lethal to opponets. The Royals' are not a good offensive team (yet) and a horribly young pitching team, so you can understand their problems. A team like the Indians, however, have the pitching right now and the power bats, but simply do not translate their power into runs. Come 2007, it will be interesting to see if the Indians and Royals can become efficient ballclubs like the Twins and Sox of today.

SHAMELESS PLUG: For daily Royals opinions and news - check us out at Royals Authority.

Statisically Speaking What is Average?

2005-07-17T19:03:00.000-07:00

Any reader to the blog or PLUG Royals Authority PLUG, or most any baseball orientated column has no doubt been inundated with many statistics. Foremost among those are the old reliable (if not very telling) batting average, Billy Beane's favorite on-base percentage, the manly slugging percentage, and my favorite OPS. Well, it dawned on me the other day that other than a general idea of what was a good number and a bad number, I really had never explored what was the league average.

To start with, the American League as a whole, posted these number for the 2004 season:
BA - .270
OBP - .333
SLG - .433
OPS - .766
So far, and not suprisingly, the numbers so far for 2005 are similar: 269/330/425/755
There is little differential league wide versus left handed pitching: 271/332/427/759
And, contrary to conventional belief, verus right handed pitching: 268/329/424/753

Okay, so the .760 range of OPS is average which is roughly what I always basically considered (actually 750 was always my mark - but I'm doing the writing so I get a break) and above .280 in batting average I have always considered decent. What I did find suprising was that the league average in on-base pct is just in the low .330s.

Now, if we stocked a team with 9 guys posting these numbers, would it go 81-81? Not with Darrel May pitching, but would it end up roughly in the middle of the back in the American League? Doubtful.

If you look at all the players who currently would qualify for the batting title in the American League 50 of the 74 are above .760 in OPS, or in other words better than average. Some teams viewed as being very good offensively have a large percentage above .760 (Baltimore 5-6, Boston 6-9, Texas 6-7). Some that are not very good offensively follow the trend also (Cleveland 3-8, Chicago 3-8, Oakland 1-4). Some defy logic (Minnesota 5-6, Seattle 3-7, Detroit 5-5). The Royals, our favorite offensivly challenged crew, actually have two of three eligible hitters above .760 (DeJesus and Brown) with Sweeney and Stairs above .760 but neither with enough at-bats to qualify.

All this really tells us is that a decent (or better) everyday player must hit above the league average. Less than 33% of regulars currently do not and I would wager that percentage will shrink as the season goes on (Sammy Sosa, Darrin Erstad and Aubrey Huff among others are just below the 760 line). Plus, if you are willing to include Texas and Detroit in the conversation, every team that currently has five or more eligible players above the league average is currently within striking range of the playoff race.

Finally, one final nugget. The league actually hits better across the board with runners in scoring position.
League Overall: 269/330/425/755
With RISP: 276/349/435/784

So, next time we say 'yeah, but he can really hit in the clutch' remember that actually most everyone does a little.

BIG NEWS - BIG CHANGES

2005-07-14T21:45:00.000-07:00

An exciting opportunity has presented itself to this humble writer, which will cause some changes in when I post here and where I post usually.

I, along with Craig over at Warning Track Power, have been asked to become part of the MostValuableNetwork.com. We will both be collaborating under the banner of Royals Authority.

Craig and I are planning to alternate posting days during the week, which will allow both of us to spend a little more time with each post as opposed to 'cranking' out a post each and every day. Those of you who read both Op-Ed and WTP will hopefully be delighted with our new site and product.

I have not forsaken the Op-Ed Page completely, however, and plan to post once every weekend and maybe another time during the week on the A.L. Central and baseball in general. For daily opinions, stats and flat out rants on the Royals from both Craig and myself, I hope all of you will join us over Royals Authority.

If you are typing in the link itself, here you go: http://royals.mostvaluablenetwork.com/

Thanks to everyone who has read this blog in the past and I hope you all join us over at The Authority.

Random Mumblings

2005-07-14T06:27:00.000-07:00

Doesn't it seem like a month since the Royals have played? And does it make me a less than well balanced individual that I am actually excited about this team getting back on the field? Quite frankly, I am hoping Zack Greinke went out and did nothing but party himself into the ground for three days. I often think pitching is a lot like golf in that the more you think and analyze the more you chunk it off to the right or hook it into the pond on the left - sometimes you just need to clear your head and pitch.

Anyway, check out the KC Star article with a bevy of Buddy Bell quotes today. Nothing earth shattering like "Shane Costa will bat second and play everyday" or "Man, that Terrance Long is not all that good, is he?", but a lot of snippets from the manager that give you something of an idea of what he thinks about his individual players. Two really stick in my head: "Buddy appreciates Angel Berroa's steadiness at short" - yes that made about half of my brain convulse too - and "DeJesus had done about all you can ask him to do", which I totally agree with. Sure, we would all like David to figure out how to steal bases, but that may come with more experience.

Trade or not trade, I see no point in playing Long more than a couple of times a week, if that. He is not part of our long-term plans (like DeJesus), he is not really helping the team that much (like Brown) and we already know what Terrance Long can do on a major league field (which we don't know about Costa). Here's hoping that our we see Costa/DeJesus/Brown in the outfield every day for the rest of the season. Stairs can get his at-bats at 1B/DH, maybe in a platoon with Graffanino - assuming one or both of them is not traded. That would give you a veteran hitter plus Sweeney in the middle of the lineup and allow our young guys to get all the at-bats they need. When/if you make another trade, then you have an opening for Ken Harvey..........................just seeing if you are paying attention, that would actually create an opening for Justin Huber.

Everyone take note of what the Colorado Rockies, a team nearly as inept as our Royals, did last night? First they traded Preston Wilson, a talented but overpaid player, for a young pitcher (Zack Day) and a young outfield prospect (J.J. Davis). Then they shipped struggling Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasick (yes, THAT Jay Witasick) to Oakland for Eric Byrnes. Here is what I like about those deals. The Rockies cleared some money so they have the flexibility to keep younger players (Byrnes, Barmes, Et.al.), but also acquired talent. Zach Day is no ace, but he can pitch in a major league rotation. J.J. Davis has power potential, which combined with Coors Field might be lethal (say speaking of that, playing in big Kaufmann Stadium should we really be looking for a power hitting outfielder or an outfielder with gap power and stolen base potential?). Byrnes is 29, so while not young and hip, he is still good and established and has years left to play. As I advocated several months ago (I think, maybe I just dreamt it), the Royals can be sellers AND buyers as the trade deadline approached. The Rockies, never noted as particularly well run, made in my opinion two very solid moves that will help their team in both the short and long run.

Let's hope Allard Baird is working under the same premise.

Who Gets Better & Who Gets Worse?

2005-07-13T06:31:00.000-07:00

The question for today is: how do Royal hitters far against a pitcher throughout a game? I thought this a mildly intriguing question at first, but as I assembled the stats my interest rose. What we are looking at is batting against a pitcher the first time in a game, second time, third time...you get the picture. There are two flaws in these stats: first it does not take into account if the hitter had faced the pitcher previously in his career and second, by the time you get to facing the same pitcher 4 times in one game your statistical sample is rather small. Mark Teahen, for example, has NEVER faced the same pitcher 4 times in the same game and John Buck has done so only once. While DeJesus has 27 at-bats in this scenario and Berroa 22, no one else on the Royals has more than 13 (Sweeney). So, keep these factors in mind as we move on.

OPS vs Pitcher 1st time in Game
Sweeney .908
Brown .807
DeJesus .749
Stairs .737
Buck .702
Gotay .681
Graffanino .664
Berroa .660
Long .660
Teahen .654
No big suprise at the top, with arguably the Royals 4 best hitters performing best. Oddly, Graffanino leads the team on on-base pct in this category at .366, however his slugging percentage the first time against a pitcher is a paltry .298. Matt Stairs ranks 4th despite a .248 batting average, thanks to 18 walks (a trend that continues the second time around).

OPS vs Pitcher 2nd time in Game
DeJesus .911
Berroa .908
Sweeney .825
Stairs .768
Brown .750
Teahen .723
Graffanino .608
Buck .589
Gotay .551
Long .488
Yeah, Angel Berroa at .908 (329/376/532) and that's with a decent sample of 85 plate appearances. Stairs sports an on-base pct of .393 the second time he faces the same pitcher, but only a .229 batting average. Once again, Graff has an odd lack of power in this category (.289 slugging, .289 average).

OPS vs Pitcher 3rd time in Game
Graffanino 1.233
Stairs 1.059
Sweeney .940
Long .906
Gotay .892
Brown .747
DeJesus .666
Teahen .584
Berroa .497
Buck .488
Hmmm, the four veteran hitters in the lineup are all dramatically better when they get a third crack at a guy - what a shock! What I find interesting in this category is Ruben Gotay who suddenly jumps from not very good to a major threat. Does this mean all he really needs is to gather more experience?

OPS vs. Pitcher 4th time in Game
Graffanino 1.500
Brown 1.300
Sweeney 1.038
DeJesus .826
Long .818
Gotay .762
Berroa .401
Stairs .282
Buck 0-1
Teahean 0-0
Remember, by now these numbers are pretty thin. Brown, Graff, Stairs have just 10 appearances like this and Long only 11. You can draw some conclusions from DeJesus, who is 8-27 and Berroa, who is 3-22 (that's 136/174/227 fans). What it does tell us if that given the opportunity to bat a fourth time against a pitcher, our veterans + DeJesus and Gotay, will light them up.

Essentially, the Royals can be boiled down into three groups for these categories. Guys who are pretty consistent the 1st time they see a guy all the way through the 4th time they see a guy. Players who get better the more they face one pitcher and finally, players that get worse.

The Consistent Ones (1st through 4th time vs. Pitcher OPS)
Emil Brown (807/750/747/1300)
David DeJesus (749/911/666/826)
Matt Stairs (737/768/1059/282)
Mike Sweeney (908/825/940/1038)
I give Stairs a pass on the 4th time through as he has just 10 at-bats and DeJesus, while hitting just .250 the third time up does still have a .338 on-base percentage. Again, these four have been our most consistent hitters, so this is no suprise.

The Improvers
Ruben Gotay (681/551/892/762)
Tony Graffanino (664/608/1233/1500)
Terrance Long (660/488/906/818)
Interesting how Graff not only improves the more he sees a pitcher, but hits with more power (7 extra base hits in 45 appearances). Does he change his approach once he gets familiar with a pitchers stuff on that particular day? Gotay has just 6 at-bats in the 4th time category, but his 11-34 with 2 homers the third time he faces a pitcher are encouraging numbers.

The Decliners
Angel Berroa (660/908/497/401)
John Buck (702/589/488/000)
Mark Teahen (654/723/584/na)
Angel is a freaking all-star in his 85 plate appearances against pitchers he is facing for the second time in one game (329/376/532/908) and an absolute minor leaguer after that (17-89, 3 BB, 18 K). His first time up numbers pretty much mirror his career numbers, so I have no idea what this means. Does it mean that the second time up, Angel sees the pitcher better, but by the next time the pitcher knows what Angel will swing at (anything)? Or does it mean that bad ball hitters get their bats on the ball 1 out of 4 times and it just happens to occur the second time around?
I am slightly discouraged by Buck and Teahen, who unlike Gotay, decline in performance as the pitcher sees them more. Those numbers indicate to me that there is a flaw in either their approach or swing that is being consistently exploited as pitchers work deeper into games.

Overall, these numbers simply reinforce what we already knew. Sweeney and DeJesus et.al can hit. Graff and Long are veteran journeymen that get better if they can get a two or three hacks at a guy (that might also explain why they are journeymen and not regulars). Berroa is Berroa and Gotay has a chance to get a lot better. As for Buck and Teahen, well, the jury is still out on them. Here's hoping for a better second half.

All-Star Ho Hum

2005-07-12T12:43:00.000-07:00

I should be excited about the All-Star Game, I used to be, but I have to admit little more than a passing interest in the contest the past few years. A passing interest in how Mike Sweeney and some former Royals perform is about all I will muster. Maybe when we are contending in 2007 and homefield advantange might mean something...

Anyway, for today, just a few tidbits stolen from various sources.

First, take a read of Joe Posnanski's column in the KC Star this morning. I ususally don't listen or read the whining about how the Royals are not able to keep their players and the whole unequal balance of baseball thing. That's the field we can surely figure out how to play on it just as Minnesota and Oakland and Cleveland and Washington have already done. However, I did find this morning's column interesting in that he compiled a roster of all the stars, sort of stars, decent players that we have traded or let go and came up with a payroll of just $75 million. I say just even though it is twice what the Royals are spending this year, because the average team salary is $73 million. I am in no way saying the Royals could have or should have spent the money, but it is interesting that number is not higher.

Allard Baird was on WHB this morning and indicated that if Alex Gordon does not sign within the next week, it would 'be difficult to start him in Wichita'. I found it interesting that when asked about college guys who spend little or no time in the minors, Baird responded that it was unlikely that Gordon could make the majors yet in 2005. We all assumed that, but it was interesting that Allard offered that instead of 'unlikely until late 2006' or something along that timeline.

Exactly what is the point, by the way, of Billy Butler playing any more in A-Ball? Yes, the California League is a hitters paradise, but c'mon .359 with 22 homers? I am pretty sure he has learned all there is to learn in High Desert. Besides, learning to catch fly balls in Wichita cannot be much different than where he is now.

If you want some opinions on team grades at the break, check out Warning Track Power and Daily Lancer. Also, keep a close watch here, as the Op-Ed should have some quais-exciting news in the next week or so.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the All-Star Break

2005-07-11T08:00:00.000-07:00

Not long ago (not even a week ago - maybe a day if you read this blog), the Royals were thought to have an upcoming starting rotation logjam after the All-Star Break. Both Denny Bautista and Brian Anderson were due to return, as was Kyle Snyder. It was widely assumed that Lima Time would come to an end, but then what? J.P. Howell would be well on his way to becoming a rookie phenom and Zack Greinke, well, he would surely be back to future ace form by then, right?

Well, today we learn that Brian Anderson is done for the year and Bautista is 'out indefinitely'. The KC Star also speculates that given Snyder's 80 pitch limit, that he will be optioned to the minors following his rehab stint. I think the Star is out of touch on that one - Snyder will be in the post-break rotation if for no other reason than J.P. Howell is doing a very good Chad Durbin imitation this days. Let us assume that, but then where is all the pitching depth?

What if Greinke continues to struggle? Quite frankly, that makes Jose Lima your third best pitcher....in the organization.....YIKES! All joking aside, can the Royals really trade Lima (assuming there is a trade to be made)? If you say that Howell is not ready (he isn't), then who would you bring in to take Lima's spot?

Jimmy Gobble has maybe found a niche in the bullpen and Jeremy Affeldt might just throw a gigantic hissy fit if KC moved him back to the rotation (not to mention that he himself is likely traded AND never really got it going as a starter anyway). Mike Wood, like Gobble, is probably more suited for relief work, and if we are building for 2007 there is no point in putting any of the above three into roles as a stop-gap measure - keep them working where you will need them in 2007.

So....now we're talking about Chris George (4.82 AAA ERA), Dennis Tankersly (4.84) and Danny Tamayo (5.44) in Omaha. How thin is the Omaha starting staff? These three are the only pitches with more than 10 starts in AAA. Shawn Camp, for godssake, is starting for Omaha. Maybe you give George his fifth last chance (I keep forgetting the guy is still just 25 - that's pretty amazing - check his birth records), or maybe you live dangerously and see if Tankersley finally 'gets it'. I think we know what happens here, might as well keep Howell up then, I guess.

What about AA Wichita? Well, unlike the offensive side where every Wrangler appears ready for the jump, none of the pitchers are probably there. Kyle Middleton (3.97 AA ERA) is the staff ace, but he's in his second AA season and is not viewed as a prospect (but then neither was Shawn Sedlacek). You have actual prospects in Brian Bass (5.67) and Mike Stodolka (5.90) who obviously do not appear to be ready, nor does Derrin Ebert (5.76). Intriguing numbers have been put up by Ryan Baerlocher, who sports a 2.59 ERA in 5 AA starts, but again, why rush him at this point? Might was well stay with J.P. Howell.

The next wave of pitching prospects in the system are all the way down in A ball: Kaanoi, Buckner, Gragg & Hughes in High Desert and Cota, Campbell and Christensen in Burlington. Although they are basically in the same draft as Howell, none of them are close to moving through the system like J.P. did (although you can debate whether he should have, but that's another column).

So, pick your poison. Stay with Lima. Trade Lima, for minimal value, and live with Howell growing up in the majors. Trade Lima, send down Howell, and take a chance on a minor league veteran (George, Tank) or a non-prospect (Middleton) or rush another prospect (Baerlocher or Bass). Frankly, and I cannot believe I am saying this, if Bautista is not coming back to much later in the season and given what little we might get in return for Jose, I stick with Lima Time - at least there will be some entertainment.

Post Break Rotation - What Do I Know?

2005-07-10T15:41:00.000-07:00

Just a few days after a speculated with certainty that the Royals would start of the post all-star break schedule with Runelyvs Hernandez and then D.J. Carrasco, we learned earlier today that Zack Greinke will get the nod on Thursday, follwed by Carrasco, then Lima and THEN Hernandez. The reasoning is that Runelvys' 109 innings so far may be putting him on a pace for a larger workload than the Royals think is wise having just come off arm surgery.

I am not sure, I buy that logic - particularly given that Runelvys' 1,752 pitches thrown so far this year is already three hundred more than he has ever thrown in a season. One could reason that if Hernandez was going to have arm trouble crop up again, it would have already happened. You could also, however, reason that somewhere on the road to 200 innings and 3300 pitches the Royals would be pushing their luck. I have no reason to doubt Kansas City's intentions - after all Runelvys has been their only season long consistent starter - but one might wonder why the organization did not start worry about that sometime earlier instead of routinely letting Hernandez top 100 pitches in his starts for three plus months.

Anyway, how about that post break rotation? Let's look at what opposing batters do against our five starters as they stand now, using my favorit string of 4 batting stats (BA,OBP,SLG,OPS):

Hernandez - 266/347/409/756
Carrasco - 270/344/365/706
Greinke - 309/364/476/834
Lima - 311/371/545/913
Howell - 330/444/534/974

D.J. & Runelvys numbers are fine...for your number 3 and 4 starters - the problem is that our perceived number one guy (Greinke) is pretty much turning opposing lineups into Mike Sweeney and our number two guy (Bautista) is hurt, young and enigmatic. That said, I am puzzled that we are sending Greinke out to start on Thursday - as if all he needs is a boost of confidence and off he goes. That could not be farther from the truth.

Zack, for all his talent, spent the early season getting guys out be being cute - exactly how many slow curves can you throw major league hitters? Apparently about two months worth. In relying more and more on his breaking, dare we say trick, pitches, Greinke managed to so screw up his mechanics that sitting at home watching on TV, this blogger (and his career .200 high school batting average) could call fastball or offspeed before the ball left Zack's hands. He has since gone more and more with the harder fastballs (a good thing), but Greinke's control in and out of the zone has paid the price. Would there really be any harm in sending him to Omaha for two weeks? Essentially missing one start for the big club and getting two in AAA to get 'right' again? Look, it was not just that horrible night in Arizona: for June, Greinke had an ERA of 10.08 in five starts, with opponets hitting .383 against him. July, so far, has been little better: 8.44 ERA and .400 opponet average in two starts. Maybe a few days off and a quasi-installation as staff ace really is all it will take, I hope so, but I am skeptical as to what we will see on Thursday.

A few other disturbing mini-trends to digest over the break. After a June in which Hernandez allowed opponets to hit just .185 in five starts (2.37 ERA), opponets have jumped him for a .347 average in his two July starts. You have to give Runelvys credit, though, despite that high average his ERA for those two starts is still just 3.65. You wonder if that is just a blip or a trend.

D.J. Carrasco has fared similarly in July, allowing 20 hits in 12 innings of work. Like Hernandez, D.J. too manages to allow far less runs than his periphals would indicate. Those two July starts came after a June in which his ERA was 2.84 and opponets hit only .245 against him. Again, both Hernandez and Carrasco fight you tooth and nail and they may just be guys who are better than their numbers would indicate, it is important that they continue to perform in the second half.

As for Lima (who instead of making all opposing batters Sweeney, instead makes them Vlad Guererro), the reasoning behind his start is simple. One, he has a 4.26 ERA over his last two starts and probably is two more average starts from at least becoming somewhat marketable. Second, J.P. Howell, he of 25 runs allowed in 26 innings, has pretty much done everything but drive himself to Omaha. I have no doubt that J.P. will someday be a valuable member of the KC rotation - maybe even as early as September 1 - but right now he needs to go somewhere and get his stuff under control. No one, especially lefties throwing less than 90 mph, survive walking more runners than they strike out.

The worst kept secret in KC is that Kyle Snyder will join the rotation after the break. No doubt in Howell's spot, although I would not be suprised is Snyder starts the Saturday or Sunday game in Detroit - bumping Hernandez and/or Lima back a day. I am excited about having Kyle back in the rotation, but we also need to temper our enthusiasm (we did not just call up Randy Johnson) and know that Snyder will be giving us 5 maybe 6 innings at best for most of the season as I am sure he will operate under a very tight pitch count.

Here's hoping this somewhat grim post on the starters spurs a string of good starts after the break. Hey, it has happened before.

The Art of the Three Way Deal

2005-07-08T13:58:00.000-07:00

No, you have not inadvertently logged onto a porn site, we are talking about three team trades here. There is not a lot of rocket surgery when it comes to the dynamics of a trade.

First, you decide the value of your players and those you wish to trade for. This value is a combination of skills, performance, age, salary and potential. Obviously, the goal it to get equal or more value than you give up. To the disdain of most fans, sometimes this value is more finanical gain than baseball gain, but that is the nature of the beast.

Second, you have to determine if the deal makes sense to your team. Does it fit in with your short and/or long term plans? Will this improve your team or is it just a deal for the sake of making a deal? If you are in a pennant race, will this deal keep a team you are contending with from making themselves better?

Third, can you sell it? You have to convince your trading partner to make the deal. You have to convince your owner this is a good deal. To some extent you have to make this deal something other than a public relations disaster (i.e. no one was happy the Royals had to trade Beltran, but they at least thought we got some value in the deal).

There are enough different angles to the above three factors to make a trade between two teams a difficult task at best, particulary when it comes to teams seeking some type of equal value in a trade. However, the introduction of a third team into the mix (maybe even a fourth) provides more flexibility in making a deal happen. For one thing, you have more players/prospects to throw into the discussion and for another, the idea of giving and getting equal value gets somewhat 'muddied'. No one would trade Jose Bautista for Justin Huber straight up, this year or last year or the year before or five years from now. Yet, Allard Baird's insertion of the Royals into a four team deal last summer yielded exactly that exchange for Kansas City.

So as we approach the trading deadline and rumors swirl everywhere from USA Today to ESPN to Royals Corner/Warning Track Power/Daily Lancer, et.al. to this humble blog, we need to think not in terms of one team as a trading partner, but in fact two or three in one deal.

Let's start with the San Diego Padres. Mark Loretta is hurt and they are apparently ready to give up on Sean Burroughs. Now, given that the Royals do not need yet another third baseman, a Graffanino for Burroughs trade would not work, nor would San Diego probably move Burroughs for just Graffanino. However, the Twins and Dodgers could sure use a third sacker and speaking of third basemen, the Marlins are not adverse to moving Mike Lowell. Now, this could get pretty crazy, if the Royals toss Affeldt and Stairs/Long into the mix. However, would San Diego take on Lowell's salary in exchange for giving up Burroughs and a prospect, plus get Graffanino? Would the Marlin's give up prized outfield prospect Jeremy Hermida if they were getting Affeldt AND Burroughs AND Stairs, plus clearing Lowell's salary off the books? Even if San Diego did not particularly want Lowell, would they want the Dodgers to get involved in this deal instead of them?

Okay, let's start over. Rumors circulated yesterday with regard to a Mike MacDougal to the Cubs for prospect Matt Murton, or maybe even Corey Patterson. Hopefully, the Royals would rather disband than trade for Patterson (he and Angel Berroa could exchange tips on how to swing at bat pitches), but somebody will be intrigued by Patterson. If the Royals are unable/unwilling to work out a direct trade with the Cubs or one with the Marlins (Affeldt for Hermida), perhaps there is some common ground that makes the deal work for all three.

Let's throw one more out there. The Yankees, who at least gave consideration to a Graffanino/Long for Robinson Cano deal a few weeks back, just brought up outfielder Melky Cabrera from Double A ball almost certainly for showcase purposes. You know The Boss is not going to stand pat and the Yankees are always nice to have in the mix if you need to have someone take on some salary. Now, you really want to get crazy, why not through the Phillies into the mix with slugger Ryan Howard. He would tempt the Yankees into giving up some talent or if you want to go even further out on a limb, you could through Sweeney into the mix and the Royals end up with Howard (unlikely and doubtful and based completely not in fact).

All of the above was pretty much just rampant speculation on my part and it is just as likely that the Royals will end up making no moves as anything remotely resembling any of the above. However, the point of this entire diatribe was simply to illustrate the possibilities that come alive when you begin to include multiple teams in a trade. Remember, two of the three major in-season deals the Royals made in 2004 were multiple team transactions.

Of Course They Won

2005-07-08T06:19:00.000-07:00

The Royals are 29-28 in games in which Angel Berroa has at least one hit (see yesterday's post for more on this). Something I did not look at was mulitple hit games. In games in which Angel has two or more hits, counting last night, Kansas City is now 13-6. Apparently, Angel's mojo is more powerful than the negative aura Jose Lima has been throwing out there.

To be fair, Lima was solid last night and actually had a stretch where he retired 11 batter in a row in which he actually lookd good. Three runs over 6 2/3 innings is not exactly dominating, but that is really what the Royals expected out of Lima all along. It may be too little too late for Lima Time (there are rumors floating that he will be released over the All-Star Break), but probably it earned him another start after the break - for no other reason that to see if you could generate some trade interest.

Hats off to Buddy Bell for two 'out of the box' managerial decisions last night. First, pinch running for Matt Stairs with Ruben Gotay in the 7th inning. You do not see a lot of pinch runners anymore, particularly outside of the 9th inning, but in this case Gotay beat the throw to third base on a sacrifice bunt. Sure, he did fall down rounding second on the play before and should have already been standing on third, but either way Stairs is not on third in the 7th inning. Second, with the bases loaded and a 3-0 count, Bell gave John Buck (and his hefty .230 average) the green light to swing away. He did, at a pitch he maybe should not have, but was rewarded with a single. Both Bell & Buck may have been somewhat lucky on that play, but I like the intent and I like the idea of going for the throat when you have the opportunity.

Kyle Snyder was in the dugout last night and is scheduled for one more rehab start (this time in Wichita) on Monday. He threw 70 pitches in his last start at Omaha and pitched well except for one bad inning that destroyed his line. There is a comment this morning that after Wichita, Snyder's next start may be Saturday the 16th in Detroit. Okay, Greinke goes tonight, Howell on Saturday and Carrasco on Sunday. You would assume that Runelvys gets the first start after the break, but after that I have not seen nor heard any info on probable starters. Carrasco could and should pitch next Friday on his normal rest (only he and Runelvys have pitched well enough to deserve that, by the way). Now, given what Lima did last night, and how Howell has struggled mightily after his debut, the assumption would be that J.P. goes when Snyder gets activated. Interesting that the Royals appear to be keeping Kyle on his normal four day rest and willing to push Greinke back (under that scenario, Zack would go 8 days between starts). I do not disagree with that concept, but it is interesting.

Thank you Shane Costa. After pontificating yesterday on how well the young outfielder avoids taking an 0-1 count to 0-2 (again see yesterday's post for more), Shane let that happen twice last night. He did get a hit though, which is more than I can say for the ever more annoying Terrance Long who posted a nifty 0-5 in the three spot, leaving 8 runners on base.

Finally, anyone else getting the feeling that David DeJesus is about to embark on a really good hot streak? Besides hitting the ball hard recently, I thought he had four really good at-bats last night (and one bad one). I have heard Royal fans describe him as 'average', 'serviceable', 'okay' and actually 'not good', but his numbers for his first two seasons are better than Johnny Damon's and frankly, I think DeJesus will be far better than 'serviceable'.

Berroa and Winning - A Scary Fact

2005-07-07T07:40:00.000-07:00

I have a tendency to focus on certain players throughout a season. Either because I like them (DeJesus, Costa), am frustrated by them (Berroa) or fascinated by them (Greinke). As such, it is probably no suprise that after winning two straight games I could not help but notice that Angel Berroa went 5-7 in those two wins. And of course, that sent me looking into stats.

In 28 wins, Angel Berroa is 43-177 for a .368 batting average. In games the Royals lost, Angel is 38-209 for a .182 batting average. Now, obviously there is a lot more going on to contribute to wins than just Berroa getting hits and in stands to reason that the more guys getting hits, the more likely a team is to win. Without devoting my day to it, my guess is that there are a majority of players who have higher averages in games won by their teams than in those lost, but I found this split (nearly 200 points) to be rather dramatic. For a little more fun, Berroa has registered at least one hit in 56 games this year: the Royals are 28-28 in those games. I freely admit this is a fairly skinny statistical analysis, but it does point out how much better this team would be if Angel Berroa 2003 was playing instead of Angel Berroa 2005.

Anyway, moving on. As I mentioned above, I like Shane Costa. He just looks like a hitter to me. Once he learns that just because his quick bat can get to the inside pitches does not mean he has to swing at them, I believe Costa could be very, very solid. At the minimum, good enough to hold down left field in 2006 as we wait for Butler, Maier, Gordon to arrive.

Interesting stat on Shane. In 66 plate appearances, he has encounterd 49 0-1 counts. Of those 49, however, only 13 times (26.5%) has the he fallen behind 0-2. By comparision, our favorite whipping boy Angel Berroa has let an 0-1 count go to 0-2 121 out of 227 times (53.3%). As Angel is an easy one to look statiscally superior to, let's take a look at David DeJesus. He has gone from an 0-1 count to 0-2 49.7% of the time (93 out of 187). Now, the one problem you can see is that 74% of the time Costa is behind 0-1, compared to just 55% for DeJesus and 65% for Berroa. This past weekend, we document Angel's production decline paralleling his increase in 0-2 counts, so Costa's ability to stay away from 0-2 is important.

More fun stats on Costa. His 5 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances, just 7.6%, compares very favorably to Berroa's 17.7% strikeout percentage (seems like more doesn't it?) and DeJesus's 13.5%. Even as far back as college, Shane has had a very low strikeout number. Although Costa has not and probably will not ever get a lot of walks, he does work the count. Almost one quarter of his plate appearances have gone to a full count (24.2%), while Angel goes full just 10.3% of the time and DeJesus 13.5% of the time. I have no idea if getting a lot of full counts is good or bad, although the more pitches you see generally the better idea you have of hitting a pitcher, but if we assume Costa may someday be a number 2 hitter you would like his ability to work the count. In the same area, Costa's pitches per plate appearance rival that of DeJesus, who I think does a pretty decent job of working counts himself. DeJesus checks in at 3.61 pitches per appearance, Costa at 3.59 and Berroa at 3.46. Bottom line, trade or no trade, come August 1st Shane Costa should be our everyday leftfielder.

One final note, D.J. Carrasco and Runelvys Hernandez may not have been anywhere near to lights out in their starts, but those two guys go to battle for you. If the Royals can ever get to where these two are our number 3 and 4 starters, we will have a very good rotation.

Sometimes You Just Need Some Breaks

2005-07-05T20:29:00.000-07:00

When you go an entire holiday weekend basically not scoring ANY runs, something a little unorthodox has to happen to help a team out. Something like being doubled up in hits by your opponet, but still managing to outscore them 8-6. Something like scoring 8 runs and not getting a hit after the 4th inning. Something like one of your top two starters (currently) giving up 10 hits in less than six innings and still surviving to win. Basically, sometimes you have to have a little luck.

I got into this a little over the weekend in my post about Angel Berroa, but just to reinforce the point: of the seven Royal hits, four came with the batter ahead in the count and two more came at basically neutral counts. The one hit that came with the batter down in the count? Of course, it was Angel Berroa (down 0-1).

Although Andy Sisco allowed one inherited runner to score and allowed one run himself, the bullpen was basically solid. Although Jimmy Gobble should thank the Royals' organization for moving the fences back a few years ago. Also nice to see MacDougal slam the door after seemingly going months without a save situation. Some feel KC should trade Mike if given the opportunity, but I am beginning to get more and more confident in his ability to be a quality closer.

One last interesting stat for this short post: Royal hitters only swung at six of thirty-four first pitches. Usually the team swings at roughly 33% of first pitches and when things are going well, take in the low 40 percentile of the remaining first pitches for strikes. Tonight, they took a cut at less than 20% of the first pitches and still took less than 40% of the remaining first pitches for strikes - odd numbers, indicating that the Seattle pitchers were not exactly painting the zone. Like I mentioned earlier, sometimes you just need some luck to get back on track.

In Search of Offense

2005-07-05T07:12:00.000-07:00

The numbers are everywhere right now. You cannot read any article about the Royals this morning that does not blast you with the ineptitude of our offense as of late. Fourteen losses in the last sixteen games, three shutouts in the last four games, and worst of all: scoring runs in ONE (1) of the last THIRTY-TWO (32) innings.

Buddy Bell has not sat still, I liked the swapping of DeJesus & Berroa at the top of the order and liked even more putting Gotay in the two spot and dropping Berroa down in the order. Truthfully, however, Bell's hands are somewhat tied right now. First, the Royals are not going to dip into the farm system quite yet for Justin Huber, Aaron Guiel, Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, Mitch Maier, insert the name of anyone you think can hit better than Angel Berroa here. While it is highly likely that some of those names may surface by August, that is not going to help the Royals score runs in July. Secondly, KC is trying to market veteran hitters like Tony Graffanino, Matt Stairs and Terrance Long, so Bell cannot simply hand an everyday spot to Shane Costa because he does need to showcase the talents of the veterans. Bottom line, until late July when the trade market comes alive, the Royals are going to have to figure out how to score runs with the guys on the roster right now. Having delved into the future often on this blog (as have most Royal bloggers), let's instead focus on how to score runs from now until July 31st.

Now, these guys have scored runs in the past (for stretches in May and June they scored runs on par with anyone in the league), so you could stay the course and hope the offense revives itself. However, what would I rant about then? So, my proposition is to really shake things up in the batting order - I mean, exactly what is the downside?

So, here is the official Op-Ed Page Royals lineup sure to score more than once every thirty innings:

Tony Graffanino, 1B - Next to Stairs, Tony's .375 on-base percentage is the best on the team. No, you wouldn't bat him here for a season, but for a month, when you are showcasing him, why not?

Ruben Gotay, 2B - His June batting numbers are 275/354/478/833, not bad at all. It is time to put him in a pressure spot and see what Gotay does. With Donnie Murphy waiting in the wings, it is time to find out about Ruben.

David DeJesus, CF - I really have no complaints about David leading off and fully expect his .348 OBP to end up in the .360-.370 range by season's end, and long term he really does strike me as a number two hitter, but remember we are talking about a couple of weeks here. His .761 OPS is fourth on the team, so batting him third is not all bad, especially if he has runner on and....

Mike Sweeney, DH - Tell me Gotay and DeJesus would not get a bunch of pitches to hit with the one respected hitter in our lineup coming up behind them. Sure, Mike has batted third for pretty much ever and has done nothing to make that look foolish, but let's put our power bat in the cleanup hole and see what happens.

Emil Brown, RF - If we put Sweeney in the four spot to drive in runs, you have to protect him, and the best protection we have is the power hitting right handed corner outfielder we do not think we have: Emil (292/361/467/827).

John Buck, C - Okay, why put a .221 hitter in the six spot? Well, for starters in June, Buck was at 277/299/400/699, still not good, but getting better. He has some power, you have to play him, and he could enjoy some protection in the form of....

Matt Stairs, LF - The Canadian has an on-base percentage of .383 and one more walk than strikeouts - not bad for a guy known as a free swinger. Yes, we need to showcase Terrance Long too, so he could play leftfield and hit here also. If you are playing Long and you want to play Stairs also, we propose batting Stairs 3rd and moving DeJesus to the leadoff or two spot depending on whom you are sitting (either Graff or Gotay). Long does not provide Buck any protection in our opinion, so our primary lineup would be Stairs here.

Angel Berroa, SS - Check out our Sunday post below for an overview of just how bad Berroa has gotten. Maybe sitting down at the 8th spot, after Stairs has worked a walk, might help. Like Buck, you HAVE to play him, and he does have to bat somewhere. I toyed with putting Angel in the five spot, protected by Emil Brown, but decided having our opponets treat Sweeney like Barry Bonds just to get to Angel was not an offensive plus.

Mark Teahen, 3B - Mark's June numbers of 282/322/353/675 are slowly rising to just below average and I still see hope for him becoming a doubles machine. With no pressure (I mean it is not like Angel will be sitting in scoring position that often when Teahen comes up) and a veteran hitter in Graff up behind him, Teahen should get some pitches. No, you do not want your everyday third basemen batting ninth, but again this is only for a few weeks.

Okay, there it is, a quick three week fix. Will it make the Royals an offensive juggernaut? Doubtful. In fact, it may do nothing, but it is something different - which may be all that is required to score at least SOME runs. Anyone who reads this blog probably knows that I am a fan of Shane Costa and would love to see him get everyday at-bats, but as mentioned above the vets (Stairs, Graff & Long) have to be showcased and you cannot sit Emil Brown down so for now, Costa has to sit - maybe you even put him in Omaha for three weeks to stay sharp. Once the trade deadline comes and goes, I firmly believe you give Costa left field for two months and see what he can do. At the point, also, you revamp the lineup to a more conventional setup - maybe check out Royals Corner for his proposed lineup come August - it looked good to me.

I have a bold prediction for tonight: The Royals will score (sarcasm intended).

The Many Lives of Jose Lima

2005-07-04T21:55:00.000-07:00

Exactly how many starting rotation lives does Jose Lima have? He is arguably the most ineffective starting pitcher in the league this season - if you narrow the field to only those starters who have not missed a start then there is probably no argument at all. Yet, despite his struggles, things 'happen' that allow Lima to live on.

First, and although it is unlikely the Royals would have made a move quite so quickly, Lima was at least given breathing room by injuries to Denny Bautista and Brian Anderson and Kyle Snyder. At his apparent last chance, Lima proceeded to completely shut down his old team (as an aside apparently Lima's spite for old teams only lasts two years as he is completely inadequate against the Tigers this year).

Now, in the span of a week, with it a virtually foregone conclusion that Lima's Time is winding down, he first pitches an average start, but the rotation around him is ridiculously horrible. Then, perhaps his main competitor in rotation-ville, J.P. Howell begins to look more and more like someone who pitched in the College World Series just a year ago. I will be shocked if Howell remains in the majors past the all-star break - he is going to be good, just not yet.

Finally, Denny Bautista leaves his rehab start in Omaha after three innings with a 'twinge' in his shoulder. At best, delaying Denny's return to active duty in KC towards the end of July and at worst, delaying it far longer.

Thus, Lima survives the callup of Kyle Snyder (expected around the break as surely J.P. Howell goes down then) and can breath easy until at least the return of Brian Anderson, who has just started his rehab assignment in Wichita and is not due in KC until July 20th at the earliest.

Lima Time must have some serious voodoo working on his side - now, if he could only use that power for good instead of evil.

The Downfall of Angel Berroa

2005-07-03T19:04:00.000-07:00

The Royals as of late have struggled mightily with consistently scoring runs. There are a myriad of reasons, of course, starting with Mike Sweeney's injury to sheer inexperience to somthing as simple as a team just going through a cold spell. Angel Berroa, however, stands out as a sore spot amongst many KC followers, with an annoying tendency to swing at bat pitches in crucial situations. Sure, we could say the same about John Buck or Mark Teahen or Ruben Gotay or any of the veterans, but perhaps we cast a more critical eye towards Angel simply because he WAS rookie of the year (and legitimately so, I might add).

I decided to take a look at Angel, year by year and month by month, looking for some kind of statisical indicator that would give us hope that he would someday rebound to that second half 2003 form. Here are his yearly stats:

2003 - 287/338/451/789 - 21 of 26 SB, 29 BB, 100 K
2004 - 262/308/385/693 - 14 of 22 SB, 28 BB, 87K
2005 - 239/281/340/621 - 4 of 8 SB, 11 BB, 59K

Obviously, a steady decrease in production across the board. Sadly, it is not that Angel is trying to hit homers and has lost his ability to hit for average, or is sacrificing power for average, or trying to get on base at the expense of power AND average - he is simply losing production right across the board.

How about Berroa, month by month? My favorite, easy stat, OPS (on-base pct + slugging) reveals what most of us know: Angel is a streaky hitter at best and is usually very good or all too often very bad. In the fifteen full months that Berroa has been in the majors he has an OPS over .900 twice, over .800 once, over .700 four times. I think .700 is marginally okay, .750 is starting to be considered good in my book. Anything under .650 I would consider below average and Angel has logged in seven months below that mark (three below .600).

The 900+ months were back to back in June/July of 2003 and Berroa managed to top the 700+ mark in three other months in his rookie of the year season. So, yes, he was pretty decent with the exception of .647 May for most of the 2003 season. Quick stat for 2003: in July of that year, Berroa had an OPS of .907 and a batting average of .323, but an on-base percentage of just .337. Curiously, in June of that year, he hit .327 with a .383 on-base percentage.

In 2004, Berroa was horrific in April and May (.580 & .577 respectively), very good in June at .793, back to bad in July/August then rebounded after his demotion to Wichita with a September 2004 of 321/379/453/832. There is no pattern in any of this, Angel often follows some of his worst months with one of his best and seldom pieces two or three good months together in a row. After extremely fair to below average months in April and May of 2005 (.648 & .660), Berroa had arguably his worst offensive month ever in June checking in at just .229/.277/.305/.582.

Now, I ran some numbers trying to find something tangible. My first thought was to compare the difference between on-base percentage and batting average: thinking that a larger gap between the two would indicate greater patience at the plate and theoritically better production. As I indicated above, however, one of Berroa's best months was when he hardly walked at all and two of his worst were where the gap between on-base percentage and batting average were greatest.

Then I stumbled upon something. Doesn't it seem like the count is 0-2 on Angel all the time? Well, in 2003, when Angel appeared to be destined for stardom, he had 635 plate appearances and encountered 173 no balls/two strike counts (27.2%). Conversely, that same season, Berroa had 99 instances where the count got to 2 balls/no strikes (15.6%). Now, you do not even need to keep stats to know that no one hits very well 0-2 (except Ken Harvey, apparently) and everyone hits better 2-0 - that is not what I am after here.

Take a look at the same numbers for 2004:
554 plate appearances, 167 0-2 counts (30.1%), 79 2-0 counts (14.3%)

And 2005 so far:
333 plate appearances, 119 0-2 counts (35.7%), 31 2-0 counts (9.3%)

Comparing 2003 to 2005, Angel Berroa has gotten down in the count 0-2 8.5% more often and is getting ahead in the count 2-0 6.3% less. Over the course of an entire season the equates to 50+ extra at-bats that Berroa is digging himself into an 0-2 hole. Given that a hitter is easily 100 points better ahead 2-0 than behind 0-2 (I just made that number up, but it has to be close) you can see why Angel has gone from an undisciplined but productive hitter to simply undisiciplined.

One parting fun (or not so fun) stat. In 559 career plate appearances in which Berroa has found himself down no balls and two strikes, he has managed to work himself a walk exactly ONE (1) time.

I do not know if you can coach a player back out of this hole, I am certain that the Royals will give Angel every opportunity to do so. Especially given that he does have a long term deal and a possible replacement is probably a season away yet (Avile, Murphy). This is quite obviously a trend, not a slump, and at some point you have to stop portraying a shortstop with a .281 on-base percentage and a .621 OPS as a cornerstone of your team's future. We are not at that point, yet, but I can see it on the horizon.

Andrew Sisco and a Curious Statistic

2005-07-02T05:53:00.000-07:00

I have to be honest. I fully intended this post to be a disertation on why Andrew Sisco should not be brought in with runners on base - instead be a 'start of inning' guy, because it sure seemed like Sisco allows alot of inherited runners to score. Well, while he has not exactly slammed the door every time out, Sisco has inherited 30 runners and allowed only 13 to score. For a young guy who started the season with zero experience, that really is nothing to complain about.

And frankly, Sisco's apperance had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. As soon as Runelvys allowed a run it was pretty apparent the Royals were done. Paul Byrd was the pitcher Royal fans came to love in 2002 last night (and the one they should have/could have traded for Marcus Giles that year) and Kansas City was pretty much helpless against him. Not to mention we batted out of order to start the game due to a lineup card snafu...hey, it happens....in slow pitch softball, not the good leagues, the beer drinking ones, but I digress.

Overall this season, Sisco has appeared in 33 games, pitched 41 innings, allowed just 30 hits, struck out 43 and walked 24. A young power pitcher up from A ball is going to be wild on occasion and his 24 walks, while not great, are certainly not bad. Opponets are batting just .207 against young Andrew and slugging a pathetic .283 - Sisco has allowed just 5 extra base hits - for an OPS of just .601. Essentially, the league is Angel Berroa when Sisco is on the mound.

With runners in scoring positions, hitters post a .266 batting average with a .702 OPS, going 11-41 with 9 walks. That is still not horrendous, but it does show that Andrew is not quite as effective in this situation as he is overall - again, a young guy who has never been a reliever - we should expect this. BUT HERE IS A BAD STAT:

With runners in scoring position and two outs the league is 8 out of 24 with 5 walks - that is a .333 batting average with an OPS of .823. While the league generally is Berroa-like against Andrew, in this very clutch situation the league becomes Mike Sweeney.

Now, I have no explanation for this. It could be bad luck, it could be Sisco has faced an inordinate number of experienced, good hitters in those situations or it could be a case of a young guy getting a one or two outs and letting up just a little - thinking he was in the clear when he actually had one more out to go. Like I said earlier, the numbers reflect that Sisco has not been as bad in inherited runners as the perception is.

Bottom line, Andrew Sisco is a piece of the puzzle the Royals are trying to assemble for contention in 2007. Whether it is in the pen or the rotation at that point remains to be seen. I would expect that his numbers may get better regarding our discussion above - you could see Sisco being just plain dominant in a late innings role (setup or closer) - well, you HAVE seen it at times already. When Andrew starts making the league hit .207 against him in clutch situations, he will quite simply be one of the best relievers in the game. I think he has that kind of ability and is another reason Royal fans should be excited about the future.

Now...about that batting order.........

End of June Numbers Crunch

2005-06-30T13:22:00.000-07:00

With an off-day for the end of the month, I thought we would take the opportunity to look at some statistical splits so far this year. The end of the month also falls conveniently near the midway point of the season (77 games) and since I have every intention of being less than 100% the morning after KC plays its 81st game (a result of the annual 'midway point blowout'...or maybe it's the 4th of July, either/or) we will use this as our halfway point also.

With regard to individual numbers, my favorite stat is OPS (on-base pct + slugging pct). I freely admit that there are far smarter and more detail orientated statheads who probably have tens of more accurate offensive indicators, but OPS to me seems to be a very solid indicator of offensive performance. Hence, that will be the basis for the following rankings.

Team Leaders vs. LHP

Sweeney - 1.042
Buck - .851 (if only the world was full of southpaws)
Brown - .840
Berroa - .741 (yes, Angel Berroa)
Graffanino - .719

Matt Stairs actually has an OPS of .925, but in only 24 plate appearances, so I did not put him in the 'official' rankings. That is a small sample, but I was really quite suprised he posted such a number versus southpaws. Who were the worst you ask? I bet you could come close to guessing: Long (.469), Gotay (.517) and Teahen (.662) - although to be fair, Teahen's OPS v righties was only slight better at .673. As a team, KC has an OPS of .703.

Team Leaders vs. RHP

Costa - .858

Stairs - .848

Brown - .839

Graffanino - .807

DeJesus - .792

I debated about putting Costa in here as he has just 49 plate appearances, but I like Shane and decided that was enough to get in the standings. Buck is the worst of the regulars at .554 and Berroa is equally as weak at .582. Surpisingly, Sweeney's OPS of .766 is less than Gotay (.768) and Long (.773). None of those are that bad, in fact, they are decent, but I did not expect quite such a big split between lefty & righty as Sweeney so far has. Gut feeling: if he stays healthy the second half, those splits will narrow. As a team, the Royals' OPS versus the righthanders is .721.

Team Leaders - Runners on Base

Stairs - .885

DeJesus - .881

Brown - .868

Graffanino - .812

Sweeney - .782

Honorable mention goes to Ruben Gotay at .781. Here is a disturbing number for you: as a team with runners on, the Royals have an OPS of .689, their opponets have an OPS of .888. It is possible I am not a genius, but THAT cannot be good.

Team Leaders - April

Stairs - .897

DeJesus - .828

Sweeney - .760

I stopped at the top three for two reason. The 4th best OPS in April was BELOW .700 and that player was Eli Marrero. How bad was April? Four Royal everyday players (Brown, Gotay, Graf and Buck) had OPS numbers below .600. As a team, the Royals checked in at just .666.

Team Leaders - May

Sweeney - 1.021 (no suprise, he was an animal in May)

Graffanino - .959

Brown - .895 (funny what playing everyday can do)

Stairs - .857

Gotay - .772

Did you know that Angel Berroa's OPS was actually 17 points higher than that of DeJesus in May (.660-.643)? Terrance Long was a pathetic .514 for the month and Eli Marrero was 3-35 (anyone notice I do not care for Marrero?). As a team, the Royals were a more respectable .716.

Team Leaders - June

Brown - .939 (anyone NOT guess that?)

Long - .938

Graffanino - .836

Gotay - .833

Stairs - .825

Honorary notice to David DeJesus at .810, a full 167 points better than May. Angel Berroa was a noticeably horrendous .582 for the month. You have to like the Gotay number and you have to hope that Mark Teahen has a month or two in that range in the second half (he has so far consistently been in the mid .600's, not a great range in which to be consistent) to give us some hope that the rookie third sacker is going to be a hitter in this league. For the month, KC was a very decent .760 as a team. They also hit .288 as a team for the month of June and despite an end of the month slump scored the same number of runs as they did in May, only in two less games.

Overall Team Numbers

Overall, the Royals are not in a particularly impressive position in the American League:

Runs - 13th (333)

Average - 10th (.262)

On-Base - 13th (.318)

Slugging - 12th (.397)

OPS - 13th (.716)

Keep in mind that the Royals were horrible in April and the first half of May and they have shown dramatic improvement in June. Taking into account only the June games, here is how Kansas City ranks:

Runs - 9th (120)

Average - 4th (.287)

On-Base - 5th (.341)

Slugging - 10th (.418)

OPS - 10th (.758)

The above point to an obvious lack of power (i.e. slugging which begets OPS which leads to runs scored), not really too suprising with Sweeney hurt most of the month and Stairs, while playing very well, not hitting for all that much power. Still, it is encouraging that the batting average and on-base percentages are in the top third of the league - while somewhat meaningless when it comes to scoring runs, those numbers do give us some reason to hope for better offense in the second half.

The disturbing trend, and I don't think you can blame this all on a horrific start, is the Royals' performance with runners on base so far this season:

Average - 14th (.250)

On-base - 14th (.307)

Slugging - 14th (.382)

OPS - 14th (.689)

Pick your favorite batting statistic, it does not matter, Kansas City is dead last in the A.L. with runners on base. Gotay hitting better as the season progresses helps as would a healthy Sweeney (took a genius to come up with that didn't it?), but you are also going to need Teahen, Buck and Berroa to produce in the clutch - something they have been unable to do so far.

I have not delved into the pitching, mainly because this post would go on for pages, and also because the numbers of a young pitching staff to me seem more meaningless than the numbers compiled by young hitters. Right or wrong, I do not know, but that is my feeling. That does not mean we won't analyze the staff, just not today.

Bottom line for the Royals if that they went 12-14 in June. On the surface not that impressive, but a dramatic improvement over April and May. Before the season, this writer (and I think most educated Royal fans) thought it was reasonable to expect 70 wins out of this team. A 12-14 month is right in line with a team that is going to end up in the 70-74 win range. Unfortuneately, the horrible first two months have probably doomed this team to fighting not to lose 100 games - KC would have to go 44-43 to reach 70 wins this year - but finishing out the season on a pace like that they established in June would put the Royals on a solid foundation to start the 2006 season. In other words, after spending the first two months wandering in the wastelands, the Royals are now on the right path - hopefully to stay.

The Infield - Into the Future

2005-06-30T07:21:00.000-07:00

Over the past week, we have speculated on the evolution of the Royals' outfield and the starting rotation as we move towards the widely held goal that Kansas City will be a contender in 2007. Today, I am going to take a look at the infield and for talking purposes we will include designated hitter in with this group, too.

Infield - The Present
3b - Mark Teahen - defensively very good, showing some signs of improvement at the plate
ss - Angel Berroa - continuing to test everyone's patience
2b - Ruben Gotay - seems to be getting better each day
1b - Tony Graffanino/Matt Stairs
dh - Mike Sweeney - curious to see, given a spate of minor injuries, if he stays at DH predominately the rest of the season
utility - Joe McEwing - by all accounts, a helluva guy

As a unit, this group was not very good at the start of the season, gradually improved in May and was really pretty decent for most of June. The red flags right now are both Teahen's and Gotay's inability to do much of anything against lefthanded pitching, but they are young.

Infield - The Very Near Future (Aug 1)
3B - Mark Teahen - you would like to see .285 and 20 doubles over the 2nd half (wait, did I just describe Ken Harvey?)
SS - Angel Berroa - conspiracy theory aside, Angel will continue to play everyday
2B - Ruben Gotay - looking for a big second half
1B - Mike Sweeney - okay, I know I just contradicted myself, but see the DH spot
DH - Justin Huber - more below
Utility - Joe McEwing - still, by all accounts, a helluva guy

Depsite Allard Baird's insistence that the Royals are not actively looking to make trades, I have a hard time believing that both Tony Graffanino and Matt Stairs are on this team on August 1 (not to mention Terrance Long). My gut feeling is Graff is the one moved and Stairs stays, although both leaving is a possiblity also. Either way, after getting a very brief taste of the majors, I believe Huber comes back and plays (or at least hits) everyday for the last couple of months. That would be a perfect setup for him to have a big year in 2006 (which we desperately will need).

Infield - Near Future (2006)
3B - Mark Teahen - no, fans, Alex Gordon will not be ready
SS - Angel Berroa - this will be his last chance
2B - Ruben Gotay - is an OPS of .800 too much to ask?
1B - Justin Huber - should be primed and ready to hit for the next five years
DH - Mike Sweeney - I don't think he'll be traded and will still be the best hitter we have
Utility - Donnie Murphy and/or Justin Gemoll and/or Mike Aviles - see below

No matter how poorly Teahen plays in 2005 (and I have a hunch he will be okay) he will still have 2006 to prove himself. First, because it will be just his second season. Second, because the Royals have invested too much in him to give up that quick and third, because Alex Gordon will not be ready at the beginning of 2006 - although he may be close.
Now, again going into conspiracy theory mode, I think Murphy is playing shortstop in Wichita with an eye toward REPLACING Berroa, not becoming a utility player. If that is truly the case, I would expect Donnie to play short in Omaha in 2006 with Gemoll and/or Aviles as the utility guys. Aviles is an overachiever with some pop, who recently moved from short to third - not exactly a great move in a organization with Teahen and Gordon already there - so I think KC is looking for him to replace Graffanino next year. If Aviles is not ready, or they want him to still play everyday, then look for Gemoll and maybe a veteran utility guy (there are about 27 currently playing in Omaha) to fill the backup roles early in 2006.

Infield - Dawn of 2007
3B - Mark Teahen - hah! you thought you would find Alex Gordon here didn't you?
SS - Donnie Murphy - just a conspiracy theory, but it is MY conspiracy theory
2B - Ruben Gotay - he could be the third best 2b in Royals history (after White and Rojas)
1B - Justin Huber - .300/.400/.500/.900? I guy can dream
DH - Mike Sweeney - if Huber does the above, how would Sweeney and Huber look back to back in the batting order?
Utility - Mike Aviles and Andres Blanco?

Threw Blanco in there only because the organization does like him and he is a great defender, whereas Aviles will be more a good bat and average defender. They would make a good backup combination with a lot of flexibility.
Okay, now, Murphy at shortstop. Listen, if I have lost patience with Berroa (yes, I have a Berroa jersey) than others are sure to follow. You have to wonder how long Buddy Bell and even unabashed Berroa supporter Allard Baird are going to be able to watch Angel lunge at pitch after pitch out of the strike zone. Yes, his defense can be truly great and this year has generally been pretty consistent, but even saying that, Berroa has still directly lost us two games with errors in the ninth inning. I could see a trade as early as mid-2006 or during the offseason leading up to 2007 if Berroa continues to play as he is AND Murphy hits and can field the position in the minors. Berroa's contract never reaches serious money and hence may actually be a marketing plus, not a minus (remember as late as this February we could have traded Berroa for Jose Guillen).
And what about Alex Gordon? As I speculated in the outfield review, I am banking on Teahen hitting enough to hold his position and allowing the Royals to move Gordon to the outfield. If Teahen labors through 2006 at a .260 clip, then you can pretty much assume Gordon will be your opening day 2007 third sacker.

If you're keeping track, that gives us this lineup in 2007:
LF - Billy Butler
CF - David DeJesus
RF - Mitch Maier
3B - Mark Teahen
SS - Donnie Murphy
2B - Ruben Gotay
1B - Justin Huber
DH - Mike Sweeney
Reserve OF - Shane Costa
Reserve IF - Mike Aviles
C - John Buck
SP - Zack Greinke, Runelvys Hernandez, Denny Bautista, J.P. Howell, Andrew Sisco
Star in Waiting - Alex Gordon

Potential always makes everyone look good and that is basically all Royal fans have to bank on right now, but this looks like a solid group. Particularly when you remember that the Twins and White Sox will have several key players from this year's teams either over the hill or with other teams by then. At least, there is hope.

You Have to Find Out

2005-06-29T06:00:00.000-07:00

In 2,783 career major league at-bats, Terrance Long has compiled a career line of 269/318/410/728. He has never had an on-base percentage over .336, nor has he ever had an OPS that topped .800.
In 3,673 career major league at-bats, Matt Stairs has put up a respectable line of 265/361/493/854. At thirty-seven, his best years are clearly behind him and over the last three seasons he has been a classic platoon hitter, with an .881 OPS versus righties and just a .659 OPS against the southpaws.
In nine major league season, Tony Graffanino has amassed a modest 1,886 at-bats and a line of 264/334/388/722. Graf has never had more than 289 at-bats in any one season, and that was way back in 1999 with Atlanta.

Basically, we pretty much know what the above three players are going to give us. They will have hot streaks and push their numbers above their career lines, but honestly do you think any of them are going to suddenly become everyday stars at this point? Or, in the case of Stairs, do you suddenly think he is going to be 29 again? On a contending team, these guys are valuable role players. On a rebuilding team, they can be a veteran precense and used wisely a valuable asset. However.....

Shane Costa has 44 major league at-bats against right handed pitching...AND FOUR against left handed pitching. Can he hit left handers? I do not know.
Justin Huber has 10 major league at-bats against left handed pitching...AND TWO against right handers. Can he hit right handers, or left handers, for that matter? I do not know.

There is really just one way to find out the answers to my questions: play them. Costa has a quick bat, and Royal fans are about evenly divided between Shane having a chance to be really good and him being just a reserve-type outfielder. I am in the former, but AGAIN I DO NOT KNOW. Why continue to keep Terrance Long in the lineup on a virtually everyday basis and play Costa sparingly? Sure, Long's peformance might suffer in a part-time role, but does anyone care? DeJesus is a fixture, Emil Brown is all of a sudden really good and T-Long is not going to be on your team in four months anyway.
Justin Huber simply tore up the Texas League and by all accounts will be the first baseman or DH opening day of 2006. Okay, I can live with him getting a taste of the bigs for the 15 days Sweeney is on the disabled list and then going back to the minors. For an organization that is almost frantic to get its young players into the majors, this is actually a sensible course of action. What does not make sense is giving him just 12 at-bats and virtually no exposure to right handed major league arms. He is here for 15 days, play him in 12 or 13 games and find out what he can do and what he needs to work on! Matt Stairs will swing hard, get walks, hit some jacks in July whether you got him at-bats for two weeks in late June or not.

This, I guess, is my first real criticism of Buddy Bell. This tendency to play young guys in platoon roles. I do not think that helps their develop at all. Yes, maybe you do not play left handed Shaned Costa against Randy Johnson in his first game, but you have to find out if guys are everyday players BEFORE you make them platoon players. That logic extends to Ruben Gotay and Mark Teahen. Right now, Gotay is horrendous against left handers, but he does have just 40 at-bats this season against them and Teahen is noticeably weaker versus lefties too, but they also need not 100 but a couple hundred at-bats against the southpaws to really find out. Again, against the tougher, veteran lefties I have not problem with Graf or even McEwing getting a game or two, but lately Bell has drifted periously close to benching both the youngsters most of the teim against left handed starters. What's the worst that can happen? Lose eight games in a row?

The Good Ole Days**#!

2005-06-28T06:12:00.000-07:00

Last night was as close to a vintage Zack Greinke performance (can you say vintage when a guy is just 21?) as we have been in well over a month. Six innings, four hits, two runs, two walks and a strikeout, while not dominating, is a heck of a long ways from 11 runs in Arizona. Unfortunately, in typical 'vintage Greinke' fashion, the Royals provided him just a single run in support.

Thankfully, gone is the pitcher who would not throw a fastball over 89 miles per hour and whose delivery was so messed up that he really had two seperate deliveries: one for his fastball and one for the offspeed pitches. Greinke's pitching motion (to this uneducated eye, anyway) is now consistent pitch for pitch. Yes, his control is still as not razor sharp as it has been in the past, due to an almost complete rethinking of how to pitch and also, I think, to a somewhat inconsistent release point.

Those issues aside, I like how Greinke is approaching the hitters now. Last night, Zack consistently was firing fastballs anywhere between 88 and 94 mph and relying on them heavily. Keeping in mind that I was watching the game on the Royals Network (where we sometimes are so wrapped up in being cute that we occasionally miss a pitch here and there) here is an inning by inning tracking of Greinke's pitches:

First Inning - 9 of 11 pitches fastballs, two at 94 mph

Second Inning - 20 of 29 pitches fastballs, one at 94 mph the rest in the low 90's high 80's

Third Inning - 5 of 12 pitches fastballs, one at 92 - one at 94, the others in the high 80's. Greinke was heading through the order for the second time here and fed the Twins a lot of breaking stuff.

Fourth Inning - 13 of 18 pitches fastballs, one at 92. The RSTN radar gun was not displayed for a portion of this inning. I am pretty sure two fastballs up were into the 90's. Interesting that Zack goes back to a fastball diet after teasing the Twins with alot of off-speed in the third inning.

Fifth Inning - 10 of 17 pitches fastballs, one at 93 - everything else below 90. Again, working through the order for the second and third times, Greinke changed speeds on the fastball. Cool - if it works, which it did.

Sixth Inning - 4 of 9 pitches fastballs, 91-93 mph range. More reliance here on the slider and slow curve. Tiring, I wonder?

Bottom line, of 96 pitches thrown sixty-five percent were fastballs. Even more importantly, fully two-thirds of those fastballs were thrown at 89mph+. I thought Greinke did a very good job of mixing his pitches and changing speeds, without getting 'too cute' as has sometimes been the case. The 29 pitch second inning, combined with some occasionally spotty control, led to the fairly high pitch count over six innings, but all in all a performance to be happy with.

Two things to watch with Greinke, now. It appeared to me (again I am not claiming to be Guy Hansen, but I do have about the same number of opinions) that as Zack got into higher pitch counts, it was not so much the velocity of his fastball that was affected, but the control of the harder fastballs that went away. From about the fourth inning on, anytime Zack pushed it up around 93-94, he had a tendency to lose the ball up and out of the strike zone. Secondly, and in a similar vein, I am beginning to question the stamina of Greinke. Sure, every pitcher is likely to tire and be less effective at pitch 90 than at pitch 20, but Zack particularly seems to get 'ragged' as the pitch count approaches and surpasses 90.

A person may wonder about his conditioning, but you could probably also attribute that to simply not being physically mature yet (were you at 21?). With Greinke pitching better now, it will interesting to see how he develops his game for runs into the later innings and if Buddy Bell (unlike Tony Pena) will allow Zack to just that.

OP-ED Note: Not suprisingly we have some opinions on the Royals offense, or lack thereof, but decided they were just coming off as bitter this morning and decided to hold back. Seven runs tonight would make the sun certainly shine brighter here in the Heartland.

You Don't Really Want to Talk About The Weekend, Do You?

2005-06-27T06:56:00.000-07:00

As you can see by Sunday's post (below), I just cannot bring myself to say much about the sweep of the Royals at the hands of the Rockies. Other than to simply say this: Colorado is a LOT better at home than on the road, Royal pitchers (particularly the starters) were completely pysched out by Coors Field and the hitters hit like...well, like a bunch of rookies and journeymen veterans. We just have to put the 23 walks issued and the pathetic 8 runs in 3 games scored behind us and move on. Nothing an 'old' Zack Greinke performance wouldn't cure tonight.

Anyway, today let's take a look at The Present, The Near Future and The Future - Outfield, much as we did last week with the starting pitching.

Current Outfield
LF Terrance Long - he is what he is and always has been
CF David DeJesus - just a flat out good ballplayer
RF Emil Brown - has gone from the brink of being sent down to the second best hitter on the team
Reserves - Shane Costa, Matt Stairs

Okay, Stairs is not really a reserve as he spends a lot time at DH or first base. Odd are that Terrance Long will not be Royal much longer. Teams are always looking for a left handed bat and the Royals will not ask much for Long in return. Besides, playing Long is pretty much just holding space. He is never going to hit about .280 and he is not going to suddenly go from 15 homers a year to 30. The opposite side of the coin is Emil Brown, who may just do that very thing. He has certainly played well enough the last two months to earn everyday play for the rest of the season.

Very Near Future (August 1)
LF Shane Costa - I like his quick bat, others see no potential
CF David DeJesus - He will be hitting .290 by then
RF Emil Brown - see above

It is theoretically possible that I could be wrong about Costa (it has happened on rare occasions before), but I see a guy who won't strike out and will hit line drives into the gaps. Is he a long term answer in left? Maybe not, but I would dearly love to see him get a couple months worth of at-bats. Assuming Long does get traded, I would think Aaron Guiel would also get his last shot with KC.

Near Future - Dawn of 2006
LF Shane Costa - hanging on, but for how long?
CF David DeJesus - never great, always good
RF Emil Brown - he might be better than Raul Ibanez
Reserves - Matt Stairs, Cory Aldridge

Okay, now it gets kind of problematical. I just have a hunch that the Royals would like to keep Stairs around one more year for a vetaran precense (especially if Long, Graffanino, Lima and Anderson are all gone). His role would be reduced, or should be anyway, to about 200 at-bats, but he can still be a valuable guy. Aldridge is a complete flyer, but I can't believe Guiel will hang around another year and I am betting that Butler and Maier will not QUITE be ready by 2006 and they sure won't sit on the bench.

I am also taking a leap of faith that Emil Brown will continue his May/June 2005 performance through 2006, but I have slowly come around to Allard Baird's thinking on this guy: 'he just looks like he will hit'. Mitch Maier will definitely be playing in Omaha, probably with Butler, with both knocking on the door to the bigs. Should either Costa or Brown struggle, an early season callup of one or both of the young guns would not be suprising in the least.

Time to Contend - 2007
LF Billy Butler - It is hard to envision him not hitting .300+
CF David DeJesus - 290/370/470 every year
RF Mitch Maier - Defensively, not much will fall in the right-center gap
Reserves - Shane Costa, X

Short of Emil Brown hitting 350 with 40 homers, his time will be 2005/2006 and then he will be gone - either by the Royals' doing or his own (ala Raul Ibanez). By then, the young guns will be pushing too hard and with so much more long term potential that Brown will have to be moved. Costa would be a very solid number four outfielder and by then a veteran guy to lean on, too. The other reserve, I will wager right now, is someone not in the organization - probably the 2007 version of a Matt Stairs/Aaron Guiel cross.
The big variable here is this year's number one pick, Alex Gordon. With the Royals planning on putting Gordon in AA Wichtia immediately (assuming he signs in the next few weeks), that means a position change is not in the immediate future. Should Gordon excel and Teahen not improve offensively, the best bet is that Gordon may be manning third base by now. If Gordon does move to the outfield, then I think mid-2007 is the very earliest he would be in the bigs.
Gordon or no Gordon, how would you like your first five hitters to be: Maier, DeJesus, Butler, Sweeney, Huber? I like it just fine.

Is the Clock Ticking for Angel Berroa?

2005-06-26T10:05:00.000-07:00

Donnie Murphy, recently returned from injury, has started the last two games for the Wichita Wranglers at SHORTSTOP. According to the Royals, 'this is insurance against an injury to Angel Berroa'. As conspiracy makes for easy writing, I will tell you what I think might be happening in just a moment. First, though, let's take a look at the company line.

They have moved Andres Blanco from short to second base (where he promptly got hurt again). Although many Royal fans have clamored for Blanco at short in the bigs, I think the days of being able to carry a great defensive shortstop with no bat are long gone. Blanco, despite hitting .317 last year in limited big league duty, will never be a good major league hitter over the long term. He was hitting below .200 at AAA Omaha prior to his first injury and subsequent move to second base at A High Desert. So, no Blanco is not the answer. I also agree with the Royals that if an injury befell Berroa, you do not want to go everyday with Joe McEwing, Denny Hocking, Luis Ugeuto, insert your journeyman utility infielder here, at shortstop. Moving Murphy to short in Wichita pushed Mike Aviles to third base, also indicating the Royals do not feel Aviles is an answer at shortstop. Aviles does have execellent hitting numbers in Wichita this year (299/340/481, 20 doubles and 9 home runs), but my guess is that the 17 errors at shortstop may indicate Aviles is a 2nd/3rd sacker in the majors. Which all brings us back to Donald Murphy and the company line. Given the rather large paragraph above, it is possible that he is working at short as insurance against injury to Angel, but....

Angel Berroa is headed to repeating his 2004 season instead of his very good 2003 rookie of the year season. Despite the perception that he is hitting better in the leadoff spot, the numbers month to month really don't reflect that:
April - 247/293/355/648
May - 252/286/374/660
June - 244/292/333/625
Now, I own a Berroa jersey and like most of us, got caught up in that second half of 2003 when he was as good offensively AND defensively as anybody in the league. He could be on the Rafeal Furcal model of a great rookie season, two off seasons, then another very good season or he could simply be a 260 hitting wild swinger who had three good months.

Murphy, who owns career minor league stats (prior to 2005) of 281/355/407/762, is by all accounts a very good defensive second baseman and had it not been for his injury earlier this year, might have supplanted Ruben Gotay in early May in the KC lineup. After a great 2003 in Low-A Burlington (313/397/425/822), Murphy struggled at the plate in his 2004 Wilmington campaign (255/325/403/728) . It should be noted that Wilmington played in a notorious pitchers' league. This year in AA Wichita, Donnie has smacked the ball around pretty good: 295/350/434 with 3 homers and 7 doubles in just 129 at-bats.

However, unlike the situation in late April, Ruben Gotay appears to be entrenching himself at second base. Take a look at Ruben's month by month numbers:
April - 208/241/319/560
May - 279/362/410/772
June - 279/366/508/874
If Gotay continues to build on a decent May and an even better June, there is no reason to move him from second base. Assuming Gotay does continue to improve (if he ever figured out how to hit a baseball from the right side, he could really be dangerous), then once could reason that Murphy is destined to be a utility player, hence the need to learn shortstop.

My conspiracy theory is simply that the emergence of Gotay at second and the continued sporadic, borderline maddening, play of Berroa is making the Royals think about a Murphy-Gotay double play tandem somewhere in the future. I do not believe that move will come this year. I do not think it will even come at the start of 2006, but should Berroa be hitting 250 with a 290 on-base percentage come June 2006 AND Gotay is swinging it at second AND Murphy is in Omaha by then, still hitting and fielding the position at short, I believe it is quite likely we could see Murphy everyday at short for Kansas City.

The Present, Near Future and Future - Starters

2005-06-24T06:56:00.000-07:00

Before I get started, be sure to check out The Daily Lancer for a nifty post on the young Royal position players. I am not as down on Teahen and Buck as the Lancer, but good points are made. Also check out Warning Track Power for a very good review of the Royal starting rotation this season, which gloves nicely with what I am going to do this morning.

Periodically over the next few weeks, I thought I might take a stab at where the Royals are, will be shortly and want to be in 2007 with regard to various positions on the team. I picked 2007 as everyone generally believes that the Royals are intending to be contenders during that season. Today, the starting rotation.

Current Starting Rotation
Jose Lima - an absolute disaster
Runelvys Hernandez - getting better, will never be great
Zack Greinke - still the ace of the future?!*?
D.J. Carrasco - how long can he continue his Tom Glavine impression?
J.P. Howell - there's a pitcher under all that youth

Okay, as mentioned above, Warning Track Power will tell you all you need to know about what our rotation has done this year. Statistically, they have been something of a debacle. In reality, they have done a decent job of keeping the Royals in the games (Lima excluded). I do not think anyone, anywhere really believes Lima is going to get 'it' back during the season and frankly, I doubt many people really believe Carrasco can continue to be as good as he has been.
Where does that leave KC? Well, they are about to have three starting pitchers ready to go by late July (Bautista, Anderson and Snyder) and all of sudden they have major decisions to make (even Peter Gammons admitted the Royals had 'a glug' of arms).

Very Near Future Rotation (August 1)
Runelvys Hernandez - He will get you 6 or 7 innings
Zack Greinke - It will be a rocky road through the end of the season
D.J. Carrasco - His ERA will not be under 3.00 by the end of August, but he is still okay
Kyle Snyder - He will be in KC as soon as he throws 75 pitches in an Omaha start
J.P. Howell - Maybe he needs more seasoning, maybe not

The above assumes something is done with Jose Lima. I am not sure what that something would be (would you trade for him?), but an outright release may be in the cards. I am skeptical that Brian Anderson will make his return as scheduled on July 20th, and if he does I think he will be traded shortly thereafter. Bautista is the wild card, but the Royals will be cautious with him. Yes, they are being cautious with Snyder, too, but Kyle is two more weeks farther down the cautionary trail than Denny right now.
By September, you can certainly expect that Bautista will be back in the rotation somewhere - they may even revert to the six man by then as virtually everyone will be pushing career highs in innings pitched by then.

Near Future - Dawn of 2006
Runevlys Hernandez - He is the innings eater Allard Baird has always craved
Zack Greinke - I believe he will be back on track by then - poised for a great season
Kyle Snyder - He may never stay healthy, but if he does....
Denny Bautista - Probably the best pure stuff in the system
J.P. Howell - Something about this kid's approach just makes me think he's in the rotation to stay.

The above is probably unfair to D.J. Carrasco, but I have a hard time believing he can remain anywhere near as good as he is now. I do like him a lot, as I think he has become a thinking man's pitcher. With him and Mike Wood playing swing roles in the bullpen, you have some veteran (sort of) stability and the arms to compensate for an injury (particularly to Snyder).
One could make a case for acquiring a vetaran arm to stablize this young rotation, but that has not exactly worked out lately has it? Lima, Anderson, Darrel May...not exactly positive impacts. I would opt for letting these five mature together, especially given that Hernandez and Greinke will be embarking on their third full seasons by then.

Time to Contend - 2007
Zack Greinke - He just might be Greg Maddux by then (only with a fastball - remember the fastball Zack, please!)
Denny Bautista - He might still be maddenly inconsistent by then, but he will also be giving us some dominating performances by then.
Runelvys Hernandez - After carrying the rotation for two season, Runelvys can settle into his rightful role: a solid third starter.
J.P. Howell - Could he be the best fourth starter in the league - anyone thinking Jon Garland?
Andrew Sisco - Frankly, I don't believe Kyle Snyder will be healthy two years in a row, and even if he is, I think Sisco may be better by then.

Not a lot of teams are able to throw the same five starters two years in a row, but good teams do have a lot of consistency in their rotations and it is not out of the question that Snyder could be in the rotation in 2007. Young arms get hurt and some just fizzle out, but Kansas City appears in decent shape to compensate for this - as long as Greinke AND Bautista both don't fizzle.
You could still have a Carrasco in the mix (and Chris George will no doubt still be pitching in Omaha) and maybe Wood, maybe even Affeldt for godssake. However, I think Wood IS a reliever and I think Affeldt will be gone. With any luck Matt Campbell, Billy Buckner and Luis Cota should be working towards the top of the farm system by 2007 also, and we have not even mentioned anyone pitching in Wichita or Omaha right now (not that there is a whole lot to be excited about).

All of the above is conjecture and based mostly on projections not past performance, but there is a reason to hope and a reason to be very excited about the possibilities of having a very, very good starting group in the very near future.

Random Thoughts

2005-06-23T06:49:00.000-07:00

As I made a rare evening post last night, just a few off-day thoughts for this morning.

First off, you will note links to the two rookie teams: Idaho Falls and Arizona Royals. Royals Corner had a nice update on the signings and assignments of this year's draft picks. Here's hoping that KC can get first rounder Alex Gordon and third rounder Chris Nicoll signed and into the system yet this month.
Players of note to keep an eye on in the Rookie Leagues are Round 2 and 4 picks Jeffrey Bianchi and Joseph Dickerson in Arizona and Round 5 and 6 picks Shawn Hayes and Ryan Dipietro in Idaho Falls. Both Bianchi and Dickerson were viewed as 'signability picks' by the bulk of the baseball world, so it will be interesting to see how they perform.
Only one other pick of note remains unsigned, Round 22 pick Justin Bristow. I wish, but have no real hope, that the Royals would go big and offer this kid first round money. If they did, he would be an absolute steal and probably immediately become one of Kansas City's top 10 prospects.

Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark both have some snipets about trade rumblings today on ESPN.com that concern the Royals. Gammons reports (or may have just dreamed stuff up in his head) that Kansas City has not talked to Anaheim about Mike Sweeney. Additionally, he also reports that the San Diego Padres are looking for a veteran infielder and may be eyeing Tony Graffanino. Jayson Stark speculates that the most tradeable Royal right now is, as OP-Ed page sincerely hoped, Jeremy Affeldt. A general manager is quoted as saying 'they would love to have him' and also that the injuries Affeldt has/had were not a big detriment to his value as none of them have related to his arm.

Finally, Billy Butler has performed flawlessly in his first two games in left field for High Desert. Of course, he has not yet had an official chance in left field either, but let's all try to be positive.

Royals Swept...

2005-06-22T18:43:00.000-07:00

Well, at least it has been a while since we had to say that. I was going to rail on the Royals' second day of being tentative at the plate, and tentative they were, but truthfully the real culprit of today's loss and probably yesterday's against Jon Garland, last Saturday against Roy Oswalt and last Friday versus a guy named Roger Clemens lies in a very simple fact: The Royals are really young, and are simply not ready to go out and knock around good pitchers who are pitching well.

Today's lineup featured THREE hitters with more than 1000 major league appearances: Terrance Long (2766), Tony Graffanino (1878) and Joe McEwing (1652). That's two career utility infielders and an outfielder who has fallen out of favor with two different teams. That's not exactly Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, Mike Sweeney and Jermaine Dye (although THAT lineup did not win much either). Simply put, the Royals are not going to beat good pitchers very often. Sure, they may catch a Randy Johnson not pitching his best and there will be nights that they will get some blops and big home run against good, maybe even great, hurlers, but generally this group will continue to struggle against the best pitching - frankly, who doesn't?

In case you were wondering, David Dejesus (622) and Emil Brown (608) were the next most experienced hitters in the lineup. As a disclaimer, please note that I have no problem with playing the young guys - you don't learn to hit Mark Buerhle sitting on the bench - I am just pointing out that four of the last five Royal losses have come to four of the best pitchers in baseball (currently).

Now, about being tentative at the plate, part of which can also probably be attributed to young hitters facing good pitching. The Royals swung at just 9 first pitches in 31 plate appearances today (29%) and took 11 first strikes looking in the remaining at-bats (50%). Both numbers better than Tuesday's game, but not quite the numbers they generally post when hitting the ball well (typically 33% first pitch swinging and low forties in first strikes taken). HOWEVER, in the first six innings of today's game, the Royals only swung at 4 first pitches and not until Joe McEwing's fly out in the sixth inning did they put a first pitch actually in play - a span of 21 plate appearances. That is a very unaggressive 19% of first pitch swinging, against a pitcher in Buerhle who is always around the plate. All things being equal, the Royals need to swing at good pitches earlier in the counts EARLY in the game - like they have been doing for the past month.

As a parting evening shot, with the off day tomorrow (Thursday) is anyone else thinking that we could skip Lima for the Sunday start in Colorado? Yes, I know that means Greinke, who may not have any better luck than Jose in keeping balls in the park, but I would certainly be entertaining the idea. Unfortuneately, I doubt the Royals are thinking along the same lines.

Tentative Royals Fumble to Loss

2005-06-22T06:59:00.000-07:00

Last night on the south side of Chicago the Royals looked, for the first time in a while, like a last place team.

A bright spot in my mind was Zack Greinke, whose line ended up far worse than he pitched. Greinke hefted the fastball up there at 94 mph several times and did a very good job of mixing in a variety of off-speed pitches instead of relying almost solely on the 65 mph curve. When Zack is throwing 92-94 with the fastball and coming back with a low 80's slider and mid 70's curve and change up and he can be very effective.
Yes, he still threw too many pitches (94 in 5 1/3 innings) and his control is not back to what it has been in the past, but it was a major improvement over his last two starts. Particularly, Greinke's arm speed and delivery pace was virtually identical pitch to pitch (after Op-Ed's well documented theory of the disaster in Arizona). What last night showed is that maybe Greinke has decided to be Zack Greinke instead of trying to be Greg Maddux.
One warning sign that I saw was that from the fifth inning on, Greinke topped 90 mph only once, after routinely doing so in the first four innings. Was this an attempt to vary the pace the third time through the order? Or does Greinke have something of a stamina problem? Time will answer that question.

Although charged with 5 earned runs, Greinke probably did not deserve to be charged with any. In the fifth inning, one out and runners on first and third, Greinke induced a ground ball to Matt Stairs at first. Turning a 3-6-3 double play is never easy, but this had a very definite chance at being just that. Instead, Stairs muffed the ball and got only the out at first, leading the way to a two run inning. Then, in the sixth inning after a tiring Greinke loaded the bases with one out, Andrew Sisco induced a sharp grounder to Teahen at third. This was, without a doubt, an inning ending double play ball, but Teahen muffed this one and got only the out at third, opening the door for the Sox' other three runs. Now, the Royals were inept offensively last night, but by not converting two potential double plays, they essentially allowed the opportunisitc Sox to score ALL of their runs.

How about that ineptness? Well, first off Jon Garland is all of sudden really good (and by the way, the poster child for being patient with a young pitcher), but Kansas City was also very tentative at the plate. Off the 33 Royal plate appearances last night, our hitters swung at the first pitch only 9 times (27%), and three of those nine were in the top of the ninth inning. Worse, they took called first pitch strikes on 14 of the remaining 24 appearances (58%). Those are Tony Pena era 'work the count' numbers.
Continuing on, if you exclude balls in play and foul balls after two strikes, Garland and Marte threw 41 strikes. Of those 41, the Royals took 28 of them looking (68.3%).

Regular readers will remember that I tracked the Royals first pitch swinging, first pitch strike looking numbers for a few weeks after Pena resigned and Kansas City immediately started hitting. What we found back in May was that aggressive hitting did not mean measurably more first pitch swinging, but instead led to swinging at first pitch strikes more. During that study (if you can call it that), the Royals swung at the first pitch somewhere in the 31-34% range and took strike one looking in the remaining at-bats at a rate in the low 40 percentile. What happened last night was a reversion to early season form: swinging less, taking more, resulting in less (or no) offense. Let's hope it was just a good pitcher throwing on one of our off nights.

One final parting shot, and I hate to be bitter but this has rankled me all season: Mark Teahen, with two strikes and the Royals trailing - swing the freaking bat! (Editors Note: Mr. Teahen took two (the only two) called third strikes last night)

Mystery Man

2005-06-21T11:02:00.000-07:00

From KC Royals.com:
Baird wouldn't identify who will replace Burgos in the bullpen, except to say that he has not yet pitched in the Majors this season.

Who will be this mysterious 25th member of the Royals' roster? And why, exactly the mystery? There are several options in answer to the first question. The answer to question number two is either: Baird has not yet decided, but has narrowed it down to two or three pitchers OR he is just trying to be cute (Allard every once in a while strays into 'silly territory').

Okay, realistically who could it be? Much to the chagrin of many Royal fans, it will not be a starter to replace Lima. Several reasons, foremost being that Snyder, Bautista and Anderson are all in the process of coming back through the pipeline and I doubt the Royals will shake up the rotation now, knowing that they will have to again within a month. Secondly, if KC just cannot take Lima starting another game, they already have Jensen and Gobble up with team and no real good option after them to be a starter. DISCLAIMER: The Op-Ed page makes no representation that we advocate that Ryan Jensen or Jim Gobble or Jose Lima should ever start another major league game, we are simply relaying what appears to be a frighteningly factual scenario.

One then, might logically look to your AAA affiliate to find a bullpen sacrifical lamb to eat innings in Denver this weekend. The options currently there appear to be:
Justin Huismann - 48 IP, 54H, 23BB, 30K, 3.91 ERA
Wes Wilkerson - 45IP, 51H, 6BB, 23K, 4.57 ERA
Santiago Ramirez - 37IP, 58H, 13BB, 30K, 6.87 ERA

Huismann has never shown much in brief stints in the bigs, but at least has some experience. Ramirez is one of Allard's 'finds' who got lit up pretty good early in Omaha but has improved lately. Wilkerson obviously has the best control of the trio, but control and 'Mile High' do not go together particulary well.

Of course, we all know that Omaha is the backwater of the Royals' system and that if you really want to get to the majors, you need to be playing in Wichita (sarcasm intended). Last week, I mentioned both of these guys as possible callups should injury strike and my hunch is that our mystery man is one of these two:
Jonah Bayliss - 47IP, 46H, 22BB, 33K, 2.66 ERA
Shawn Sonnier - 33IP, 26H, 12BB, 46K, 2.18 ERA

Bayliss is a PROSPECT, Sonnier used to be one and is trying to get back to that status. Both have impressive numbers in Wichita, but keeping in mind their age and where they are going to have to pitch this weekend, our prediction is that Shawn Sonnier will get the call. His strikeouts to innings pitched and his strikeout to walk ratio both point towards getting the nod. Additionally, with Wichita off for their all-star break, he will be rested.

All is Not Lost

2005-06-21T06:35:00.000-07:00

This does not feel like a team that has dropped three of their last four games. This team is still playing hard and, generally, still playing well. Sure, the offense managed 2 runs total against Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt, but those guys do that to everyone. Even in those loses, the Royals had a combined 22 baserunners: they were inefficient, but not inept. And last night, despite throwing maybe the worst possible combination of pitching against the best team in baseball (maybe), Kansas City stood in toe to toe with the White Sox before falling 11-8.

Since Zack Greinke's implosion in Phoenix take a look at the what the starting pitchers have done for Kansas City:
Ariz - 5 IP 1 ER (Howell debut)
Ariz - 6 IP 1 ER (Carrasco)
LAD - 6 IP 2 ER (Hernandez)
LAD - 8 IP 1 ER (Lima, miracles do happen)
LAD - 5 IP 3 ER (Greinke, he cut his runs allowed by a whopping 75% from his previous start)
Hou - 6 IP 4 ER (Howell allowed 3 runs in the first, was solid after that)
Hou - 7 IP 3 ER (Carrasco)
Hou - 7 IP 1 ER (Hernandez)

That's eight sometimes great, often good, always acceptable starts in a row...until last night, when Lima returned to form and allowed 7 runs in just 4 innings of work. Sure, he had his share of bad luck, particularly when Emil Brown lost a ball in the lights and allowed 2 runs to score, but Lima was getting hitting all over the park. Enter Ryan Jensen, who since pitching a solid 5 innings against St. Louis has now allowed 15 runs in 12.2 innings. Then Leo Nunez, who gave up two soft singles, had some control issues and generally pitched like Leo Nunez pitches. Sadly, Jimmy Gobble...yes Jimmy Gobble, was the most effective of the Royal pitchers last night: allowing one hit and no runs in one inning. All in all, not exactly a fiercesome foursome we threw at the Sox last night.

Speaking of Gobble, I wonder if he may be something of a Mike Wood type, who could be above average in a middle relief role. He was throwing as hard as 92 mph last night and with that cutter, could be effective one time through the order.

One day after I speculated that Jeremy Affeldt was the most likely Royal to be traded and the Royal who should be traded, he lands once more on the disabled list. Short of Jeremy returning in early July and pitching 10 dominating innings, this injury probably makes him virtually untradeable at this point.

The injuries to Affeldt and Burgos may force the Royals to once more lean heavily on Andrew Sisco. The organization, no stranger to ruining young arms, had become concerned over how many appearances that Sisco was on a pace to make this season and had made a determination to use him in less games for more innings. Sisco has appeared in only 5 games in June, after 13 in May and 11 in April. However, he and Mike Wood now stand as the only viable bridges to MacDougal. With Burgos and Affeldt supposedly due for just short stints on the DL, I see no harm in using Sisco regularly through the end of the month. Overall, however, I agree with the thought process that we should be careful with young Andrew. Plus, his future may lie in the rotation, which also points to using him for 3 and 4 inning stints once or twice a week from July through the end of the year.

Of course, the big news is that Justin Huber has been called up to take Mike Sweeney's spot on the roster. Bell is quoted today as saying Huber will 'play some' and 'probably go back down when Sweeney returns', but it will give us at least a taste of what to expect from Justin. I would obviously not be heartbroken if Huber hits so well that KC HAS to keep him with the big club, but we shall see.

Finally, Kyle Snyder pitched last week in Omaha (2 2/3 scoreless innings on a strict 45 pitch count) and Denny Bautista is due to start the same process shortly. The Royals' intent is to add 10 pitches per start for each of them, and not ponder a call up to KC until they are up around 70-75 pitches. Bottom line, neither will be ready much before late July (supposedly about the same time Brian Anderson is scheduled to return) - which means, quite frankly, that you have another month of Lima time to endure.

Should the Royals Play Let's Make a Deal?

2005-06-19T19:25:00.000-07:00

As June begins to wind down, the talk of trades will become more and more prevalent. The Royals, viewed by everyone as sellers in this year's market, will no doubt come up in conversations over the coming weeks. That brings up a number of questions: who should the Royals trade? who should they keep? what can they get in return? how will it help/hurt the team in the long run?

A person could spin any number of scenarios and plug in any number of names on both sides of any transaction, but for now, let's take a look at some Royals that could be/should be on the block. I am going to put them in order of those most likely to be traded (not who should or who I want to be traded).

1. Jeremy Affeldt - If his last two appearances are any indication, Affeldt is about as enthused with KC as we are with him. From a personal perspective, I have long thought he had kind of a me first attitude and also something of a what is going to go wrong next thought process. Affeldt has been injury prone and inconsistent in every role in which the Royals have placed him. Yes, at times he was a very good starter, but not for very long. Yes, there were moments last year when he looked like a dominant closer, but not for long stretches. Jeremy appears to be a guy in need of a fresh start and, luckily for the Royals, he is the kind of guy teams are willing to take a gamble on. Just 26 and left handed, with a tantalizing stuff and a contract under $1 million (with little hope of winning any arbitration award) will at least warrant a phone call from a number of teams.
What can the Royals expect in return? Probably not as much as they once would have wanted, but you could see the sense in an Affeldt for Kearnes trade (similar ages/salaries/situations) or something similar. Something of a younger, lower cost Terrance Long for Darrel May deal. While a trade to a contender is a possibility, Affeldt is probably too inconsistent and unproven for a team trying to win now to gamble on. I think it is more likely that a trade between teams building for next year would come to fruition.

2. Matt Stairs - An experienced left handed power hitter, who you can plug into any clubhouse, is a valuable commodity - perhaps more in the National League than American, but Stairs has value in both leagues. Did you see who the Dodgers were playing in the outfield?
One of the things we as fans forget sometimes, is the need to have veterans on a team. I often fall prey to the lure of 'potential and upside' and forget that you need crusty old guys who play fundamental baseball - even if they are not great or even good players. I think Stairs is a good influence on this team and part of the reason the Royals have gone from laughingstocks to a downright solid baseball team the five weeks. I hope KC hangs onto him and for that matter, if the money was not obtrusive, I would sign him for 2006 too.
However, you have to refer to my opening comment on Stairs, and understand that he is a player contending teams will want. What could the Royals reasonably expect in return? Probably not anyone you have heard of, unless KC could manage to spark a bidding contest between two teams. Still, personality and clubhouse influence aside, would you take a chance on a A or AA mid-level prospect in exchange for a 37 year old platoon player whose contract ends after this season? Maybe.

3. Terrance Long - There are two reasons Stairs is ahead of Long on this list: contract and attitude. Long costs more and has a little bit of a reputation as a head case, although he has been fine in KC in my opinion. Long's recent offensive surge has moved him from the 'dump salary' mode to the 'maybe we CAN get something' mode. Terrance is still just 29, can play all three outfield positions and last year was a very effective pinch hitter.
The play of Emil Brown and the promise of young outfielders in the system make both Stairs and Long expendable sooner rather than later, so trading one does not mean the Royals would not trade the other, too.
It is quite possible that, while easier to market Stairs, the Royals could expect to get more in return for Long. Again, the buyer would be a contender looking for some left handed punch, looking somewhat desparately I might add, and the return would probably not be anyone above AA, but there will certainly be inquiries. All things being equal, I advocate a trade of Long and keeping Stairs, both for monetary and attitude reasons.

4. Brian Anderson - This will not be a July trade, as I don't think teams will gamble on Anderson's health that soon. However, it is not unreasonable to think that Anderson could make it through waivers and be dealt in mid-August. Watch for pitching thin teams who either suffer an injury in the rotation or begin to struggle in the late summer heat of a pennant race. The league does not believe Anderson was as bad as he was last year and know that he's a solid veteran and clubhouse guy who won't cause any problems.
What can you get for an average left-handed starter? Well, if someone is desparate enough, more than you can get for two left-handed hitting outfielders.

5. Tony Graffanino - Big problem: everyone knows that Tony will not hit .321 playing everyday. Hell, everyone knows he won't hit .321 playing twice a week. He is a veteran guy, hard-nosed, can sort of play everywhere. Is there a market this kind of player? Maybe, particularly if a contender loses a middle infielder for six weeks and knows they don't have to count on Tony to be their everyday guy in the post-season.
What do you get for a vetaran utility player? Not very bloody much. Still, worth exploring and taking a chance on a prospect some other organization has given up on. The Royals have a wealth of utility guys in the making in their system (not to mention three ex-major league utility guys in Omaha), so shipping Graff for a flyer might make some sense.

6. Mike Sweeney - Everyday he doesn't play makes it less likely a team would give the Royals want they want for the Captain (Beltran like return). Plus, I think KC had come around to the OP-ED theory that it would be better to ADD bats around Sweeney rather than get a bat to REPLACE him. Sure, his contract is huge, but it also runs out after the 2007 season, about the time the Royals will have to start spending real money to keep their younger guys.
Why not keep a guy, who injury prone or not, is going to hit 290 with power? A veteran guy who can bat between DeJesus and Brown or Costa and Huber or after Maier, DeJesus and Huber or whomever?
Whether the league did it or the Royals did it, the conclusion is Mike Sweeney should stay in KC, at least for now.

Names you'd think might be here, but aren't:
Jose Lima - would you give up your worst A ball reliever for him? I wouldn't.
Joe McEwing - the market for Graffanino is slim, what do you think the backup to your utility infielder would bring?
Mike MacDougal - there was interest from Texas early in the year, but the Royals think he is their closer again.
Ken Harvey - if you read this all the way through, then you deserved a laugh.

Greinke Revisited and a Sweep

2005-06-17T05:54:00.000-07:00

Zack Greinke - The Good
First and foremost, the difference in pace in Zack's delivery between fastball and breaking ball that was so noticeable (in my tortured mind anyway) in Arizona was not noticeable tonight. At times, especially as he got up there in pitch count, I thought I could pick up some minor differences, but not on a consistent basis.
Fastballs...and more fastballs. Greinke relied heavily on his fastball last night, and not the lazy one either. He was hefting the rock up there in the 92-94 mph range consistently all night. Additionally, at least 70% of his pitches had to be fastballs. As I have often criticized Greinke for being 'too cute', that was also good to see. A lot of 92 mph heat all of sudden makes that 76 mph change and the 66 mph curve all the more effective.

Zack Greinke - The Bad
While he was not tipping his pitches and throwing more hard fastballs, Greinke was far from dominating. He walked two batters, hit two more and allowed 8 hits. To his credit at least three of those hits were not stroked very solidly, particularly the two to open the game. It also took Greinke 111 pitches to labor through just five innings. Now, the Royals did not have their best night defensively behind him and bottom line, Greinke made it through five and kept us in the game, but we all set the standards a little higher with Zack. As mentioned in the KC Star this morning, 'Zack is a work in progress right now'.

The Sweep - The Good
What's not good about sweeping the Dodgers? I really do not think Kansas City played all that well last night and still won...easily. When a team is on a roll, all the little things break your way: double play balls turn into errors or just a force out, your errors never come back to bite you, all the shots down the line are doubles instead of 5-3 groundouts,...basically you are just on a roll, enjoy it.
The Royals did pound out 15 hits last night, once again got some nice two out hitting and ran the bases aggressively but not stupidly (okay, Castillo got thrown out at home late in the game on a fly ball that Willie Wilson could not have scored on, but I think he just wanted to get it over with by then). Interesting little stat here: the Royals struck out twice and walked three times. When was the last time THAT happened?

The Sweep - The Bad
The defense, although charged with just one error, was not up to its recent standards. Teahen did not have a good night, which we can excuse as he has all of 40 games experience, and the ball just kept seeming to find him (we've all been there haven't we?). Still, the Royals gave up three, maybe as many as five outs. Let's hope it was just one of those nights and we get back to the borderline great defense that has been played for the last couple of weeks.
Home plate umpire Joe Brinkman had a ridiculously inconsistent strike zone last night, so we can blame him for some of this (before walking Kent in the first inning, Greinke threw at least two pitches that were strikes, but called balls), but the pitching was truthfully not great. Greinke's issues are dealt with above, but Mike Wood, although getting the job done, pretty much slopped his way through two innings. Jeremy Affeldt was worse. Although betrayed by Gotay leaving second early on a force out (it was not as bad on replay as it looked live, but live I could see why the umpire made the call), Affeldt took 27 pitches to give up 3 runs and make the game interesting enough that Buddy Bell had to get MacDougal up in the bullpen. I have watched Affeldt his entire career and have no idea why batters can hit him, but they do. He is rapidly on his way to becoming the Op-Ed whipping boy.

And Finally
RSTN had Brian Anderson miked in the dugout last night and brought him in during the game four times for commentary. You can tell Anderson knows the game and he speaks well, but I generally dislike that sort of crap during the game. The most interesting quote was with Burgos pitching, when Anderson commented that everyone wished he would just throw his fastball more: "When you come in throwing 97 or 98, that's a devastating weapon to have." I was never a pitcher, and it is obvious most of them don't think like the rest of us, because if I could throw 98 (Burgos) or even 94 (Greinke), you would have to beat me to get me to throw something else.

Tonight, rookie J.P. Howell goes against Roger Clemens. My expectations are low, as...well...it is Clemens and J.P. is a rookie, but we will definitely get a glimpse as to the mental makeup of young Mr. Howell.

For those of you with split screen capability or just really fast clicking fingers, Alex Gordon and the Nebraska Cornhuskers play in the College World Series at 6:00 CDT on ESPN2. I will be on the golf course with one VCR set to RSTN and the other to the CWS. You have to love this time of year.

Greinke Pitches Tonight - Hold Your Breath

2005-06-16T06:20:00.000-07:00

Not very long ago, Royals fans looked forward to Zack Greinke's turn in the rotation. This is one we can win, was the conventional thinking. Tonight, however, does not feel 'like one we can win' - other than this team all of sudden seems to win all the time - and that feeling is simply one of watching everyone hit the absolute crap out of most everything Zack has offered up in the last month.

I speculated last week on Greinke tipping his pitches and I will be very interested to see if I can see the same delivery differences (fastball v. breaking ball) that were evident in the Arizona game, however there is another factor that is definitely in play: Zack Greinke is a YOUNG pitcher.

Right now, Greinke has 37 major league starts under his belt, totalling 215 innings and a yielding a 4.64 career earned run average. Here are some similar numbers for a few guys you may have heard of:

Greg Maddux - In his first 36 games (32 starts), Maddux had logged 187 innings and sported an ERA of 5.59. All he did the next season (1987) was throw 249 innings and compile a 3.18 ERA. Now, Maddux IS A FREAK, and he had the benefit of 6 games in 1985, a full season in 1986 and an off-season to get his head together, but the numbers do show that he was not very good early on.

Tom Glavine - Like Maddux, Glavine pitched a little in 1987 (9 games) and then had a full season of 34 starts in 1988. Over those 43 starts, spanning 246 innings, Tom had an ERA of 4.76. He followed up in 198 with 186 innings and a 3.68 ERA. Again, he had the benefit of an off-season, but he too was not setting the world on fire early in his career.

Brad Radke - The Twins number two guy (remember when he was their ace?) came up in 1995 and started 28 games with a 5.32 ERA (181 innings). He came back in 1996 and had an ERA 4.46 over 232 innings and then in 1997 went 239 more innings with a 3.87 ERA.

Tim Hudson - This comparision is interesting because Hudson had success, like Zack, his first season. In 1999, Tim started 21 games, pitched 136 innings and had an ERA of 3.24 - better than Greinke's 2004 but similar. He followed up with 32 starts in 2000 spanning 202 innings with an ERA of 4.14. In that season, Hudson surrendered 24 home runs. He rebounded in 2001 to post an ERA of 3.37 in 235 innings and pretty much has been one of the ten best pitchers in baseball since. Keeping in mind that Zack just got pounded for 11 runs in 5 innings, which did a number on his ERA, he is not far off where Hudson was in season two.

Jake Peavy - One last look, this time at the Padre ace. In 2002, Peavy started 17 games (98 innings) and compiled a 4.52 ERA. He started 32 games in 2003, pitched 195 innings and allowed 33 homers on his way to 4.12 ERA. Peavy then blossomed in 2004, with a 2.27 ERA over 166 innings.

Now, earned run average is not the be all and end all of pitching statistics. In fact, you could make a case that it is considerably down the list of important numbers, but it is useful to illustrate my point that Zack Greinke is a very young pitcher, very early in his career and that there is a precedence that a two year development curve is quite common. Sure, there are also a similar number of great pitchers who were good as rookies and got better immediately (Mark Mulder comes to mind), but given Zack's age and relative lack of minor league experience it would be logical to think he would develop at the slower pace.

You worry about Greinke's disdain for instruction from Guy Hansen, his flaky demeanor (George Brett has been quoted as saying 'The works Zack sees is not the same one you and I see'), his almost disinterest in the game at times...basically you worry that Greinke may be one gigantic head case. You worry about his inability to retire left handed hitters (currently hitting 336/387/572/959 against him - righties are just hitting 255 with a 719 OPS). There is plenty of variables to consider with a young pitcher like Greinke, but the truth is we really won't know if this kid is the ace of our staff, a solid upper middle part of the rotation, or an end of the rotation guy (or worse) until late 2006.

Here's hoping that we see signs of improvement, and occasional moments of brilliance, through the rest of 2005.

Runelvys Hernandez Packs a Lunch

2005-06-15T06:45:00.000-07:00

Last night was what is becoming typical Hernandez: 6 IP, 8 hits, 2 runs. The only thing atypical was zero walks as opposed to 7 over his previous two starts. Runelvys is quite simply the workhorse of a very inconsistent rotation (albeit getting help from suprising D.J. Carrasco).

In fourteen starts, Hernandez has gone 5 innings or more thirteen times and only twice has allowed more than 4 earned runs. Since allowing 7 runs in 5 innings in Anaheim, Hernandez has allowed just 4 runs over 18 innings in the three starts since then. His 84.2 innings easily leads the staff, followed by Greinke at 70.1 innings and Lima at 64 innings (how, by the way, has Jose managed to stay in for that many innings?). Despite the additional innings pitched, Hernandez has allowed only two more hits than Greinke and 7 more than Lima. Sure, I am not comparing him to Clemens and Mussina, but still not bad numbers at all.

Sure, Runelvys walks too many hitters. Yes, he will worry about the shape of the mound, the wind, the cold (pretty soon it will be too hot, I'm sure), the strike zone...you name it, but Hernandez will stick in there and battle. Like Carrasco, Runelvys appears to be settling into a nice comfort zone and providing this team exactly what it needs: steady pitching for six innings every fifth day. With four power arms in the back of the bullpen, the Royals do not need anything more out of their starters.

Other Musings....
Would you trade for Austin Kearns now? Each year we get farther and farther away from that 315/407/500 rookie season and the string of injuries gets longer and longer. Still, Kearnes is just 25 years old and makes under $1 million per year. A month ago, I would have traded Affeldt for Kearns in a heartbeat, now I think the Royals would have to get more. Further, do we even NEED to trade for Kearns (or anyone else?). With DeJesus a fixture in center and Emil Brown appearing to be a quite capable stopgap through this season and maybe next are we not better off seeing what Shane Costa and/or Matt Diaz can do while we wait for Butler/Maier/Gordon et.al. to be ready?

How about this, would you trade for Jason Schmidt? There are rumors circulating that the Giants have had enough of their ace, particularly with a $10 million option for 2006 coming up. Schmidt, who has been one of the better pitchers in the league the last three years, currently sports a Lima-like 6.12 ERA. At thirty-two it is possible that he is on the backside of the mountain, but someone with his past success is always interesting to look at. He is really not a viable option for the Royals - I'd rather pay Sweeney $11 mil than a pitcher $10mil - and I don't think they need to take a salary gamble on a pitcher having a off year, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

And finally, Billy Butler is set to come back from his bruised hand this week and will most likely make his debut as a leftfielder. Assuming he is adequate there, I will be interested to see just how long the Royals allow him to beat up on High-A ball pitching. Going a step further, if Butler is moved up to Wichita, will the Royals make some move with Huber and/or Maier? I would think that the organization might want to stagger the debuts of all three players first for salary clock reasons and second so as to not be relying on three rookies when they think they can contend (2007). Huber is surely a lock for the 2006 roster, with Maier starting in Omaha and perhaps Butler (and Alex Gordon) in Wichita. That sort of stagger envisions Maier getting a half season in or so with KC in 2006 and Butler opening with the big club in 2007. I would not be suprised if Butler still ends up at DH by then, not so much because of his defense, but because I have a hunch that Shane Costa may be too good not to leave in left for the next five or six years.

Anybody else having fun being a Royals fan right now?!

Odd and Ends

2005-06-14T07:07:00.000-07:00

Check out Warning Track Power today for a more in-depth review of how the Royals' offense has come alive, not just in June but since the resignation of Tony Pena.

Word is that Kyle Snyder will begin a rehab assignment in Omaha shortly. He will be limited to 45 pitches in his first START. Yes, Snyder is in the process of shifting back to starter. I think this is the correct move, even if the results are not seen in the majors until 2006. Given Kyle's injury history, expect the Royals to move very slowly through this transition.

Brian Anderson is on pace to return sometime after the All-Star Break (another reason the Royals won't rush Snyder), hopefully in time to make two good starts and get traded for something worthwhile. I do think Anderson is a standup guy and probably a far better pitcher than he was last season, but there is no reason to keep him with this team for the remainder of the year. If he can be packaged with another player or players in a meaningful trade, fine, but otherwise trade him for a mid-level prospect and take your chances.

From the land of journeymen minor leaguers (i.e. Omaha) Justin Gemoll, a second/third basemen is hitting 316/386/451 with five home runs. At 27 years of age, Gemoll finds himself stuck behind Teahen and Gotay, with Murphy and many others pushing from below. The prospect of him getting a call to KC are remote, but Justin is fashioning himself a solid AAA season.
Ken Harvey is slugging away at 346/373/490 in Omaha. His rehab assignment has to be close to expiring and my assumption would be that the Royals will keep him in Omaha (I believe he still has an option left). In the alternative, given the outstanding play of late of both Terrance Long and Emil Brown, they may elect to activate Harvey and send Shane Costa back to the minors so he can play regularly. There is no point in having a prospect like Costa sitting on the bench.

As usual, the Omaha roster has very little to peak anyone's interest - such is the life of a AAA player. However, Wichita sports several players who may yet make the big club this summer.
First and foremost is of course, Justin Huber, still hacking away at 332/425/527 with 16 doubles and 9 home runs. After some rocky defensive outings, Huber has just 1 error in the last three weeks.
Josh Pressley, after serving a substance abuse suspension, picked up where he left off and sports nubmers of 301/409/477. His biggest problem is that he, too, is a first base/DH type (one of 48 in the Royals' system).
Mike Aviles, despite 15 errors at shortstop, still looks like a prospect to us. Hitting 293/336/478 with 8 home runs, it is not hard to see him in a utility role in the future. Should Berroa get dinged, I would also expect that Aviles would likely get the emergency call now that Andres Blanco is working out at second in High Desert.
Should the Royals encounter bullpen trouble, they would likely also look to Wichita and two pitchers: journeyman Shawn Sonnier or prospect Jonah Bayliss. Sonnier has struck out 44 in 31 innings with just 11 walks on his way to 2.32 earned run average. Bayliss, a 2002 7th round draftee, has struck out 48 in 42 innings and issued 21 walks. Given the rather crowded situation in the pen and the rumblings that Scott Sullivan may be eyeing a return in July, it is unlikely that either Sonnier or Bayliss will get a call, but they are positioning themselves to join the fray in spring 2006.

The Boys of June

2005-06-13T07:51:00.000-07:00

Remember April? When we could not score any runs, when the Royals wasted excellent pitching performances day after day? Well, those days are gone. Sure, June is not even half over, but right now your Kansas City Royals lead the American League in runs scored in the month of June (67).

Check out the team average, OBP, Slugging and OPS by month:

KC Apr: 238/298/368/666
KC May: 256/313/403/716
KC Jne: 313/374/469/844

By the way, for the month of June, Kansas City ranks first in the American League in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS and second in slugging percentage. The Royals are not going to hit 313 the rest of the way, but they have shown the ability to get better. Luckily, they have shown that ability at a time when the pitching has been inconsistent.

One of the primary reasons the Royals have hit so much better has to be the play of Emil Brown, check out RoyalsCorner from this weekend for a nice blurb on Emil, but to summarize here are Brown's numbers by month:

Brown Apr: 161/254/339/593
Brown May: 313/389/506/895
Brown Jne: 385/432/615/1047

Again, Emil Brown is not going to hit 385 the rest of the season. He's not even going to hit 313 the rest of the season, but I am now convinced he will hit. If Brown continues to hit anywhere near his recent numbers through the All-Star break, I firmly believe the Royals should lock him into a contract (moderately priced) for the 2006 season. I have no doubts that a guy who has never once had a secure job in baseball would jump at say a million guaranteed for next season.

Brown's increased production (and hopefully a contract for next year) allows the Royals to be patient with Mitch Maier, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. We no longer have to rush to get their bats in the lineup, thus allowing them to develop skills in AA & AAA as opposed to struggling in the majors.

Plus, should the Royals keep Sweeney (which I hope they do), you now have DeJesus, Sweeney and Brown to build around. Add another bat, via an Affeldt/Long trade for example, and you have four productive hitters, up and comers in Teahen & Gotay, power from your catcher, a young DH in Huber, and Berroa (who, like it or not, IS your shortstop). With a young staff that will only get better, in my opinion, that is the foundation for a competitive 2006 team and you can look forward to three serious hitting prospects pushing for time in the minors in late 2006 and early 2007.

A lot can change between now and 2007. Emil Brown could go 3-55 the rest of the month. Young pitchers get arm trouble and sometimes just don't develop (anyone heard what the deal is with Bautista by the way?). The signs that Gotay and Teahen will be good major league hitters may disappear as quickly as they appeared. All of that could happen, but right now, after enduring a horrific early season, it feels like the Royals are heading in the right direction. And heading there at a high speed.

Is Zack Greinke Tipping His Pitches?

2005-06-11T06:13:00.000-07:00

Last night was both a debacle, a triumph and a disappointment for the Royals. You have to be pleased that they continued to battle and fought their way back to an improbable 11-11 tie and extra innings. Although he did the same thing against the Angels in extra frames (the game where WE gave up the big lead), I would have thrown MacDougal out there too. However, sitting here watching the game on the Royals Network, I have one question to ask: Is Greinke tipping his pitches?

Okay, no one - not even once - has asked me to be their pitching coach. It has been 21 years since I put the finishing touches on a Legion baseball career that had an average much closer to Mendoza than Jeter. Additionally, I watched this game from the standard centerfield camera view, which no doubt is a different look than you get standing at the plate (I would wager almost the exact opposite view as I think about it), but still.....

After the first inning, when EVERY breaking pitch Greinke threw was crushed, I began guessing as he went into his windup if the pitch would be a fastball or off-speed pitch. Over the next two innings (until the family came home and made it difficult to concentrate) I maybe missed two pitches total, I think both changeups. What I was seeing (or thinking I was seeing) is that Greinke's windup, from taking the ball from the glove to release, is considerably quicker when he is throwing a fastball. Now, I am certain that all pitchers have some pace differential when throwing the fastball, but Russ Ortiz (no Hall of Famer) had nothing I could pick up with any degree of certainty. Greinke, however, WAS NOTICEABLY quicker - at least when viewed from centerfield.

Even with a pitcher who throws pitches as high as 93/94 and as low as 60, and pretty much every mile marker in between, it would be a great advantage to the hitter to at least know that it was going to be on the high end of the scale or the low end. Even if that knowledge came just a second before the pitch was released. My questions are simple:
a) Am I really seeing this?
b) Can the hitters see this from homeplate?
c) I readily admit Guy Hansen is smarter than me, does he see this?
d) Do any of you see this?

A couple of innings in one start may not be enough of a test, and all of us probably could have hit some of those middle of the plate, not so breaking breaking balls Zack served up last night, but it might be something to watch in his coming starts. Quite probably it is just something I imagined more than anything else, as I am sure Zack's starts are filmed from enough angles and analyzed by smarter baseball men than me that this flaw would have been revealed much earlier. However, it sure looked real to this blogger. And the 11 runs surrendered sure as hell were real.

Said Greinke, in response to what he was doing wrong, "A lot of things, I guess. If you ask my pitching coach, he'd say I'm leaving the ball up. If you ask guys on the team, they'll say I'm not throwing my best pitches. If you ask me, I'd say it's been both of it a little bit." (Courtesy KCRoyals.com)

Tell Me Why

2005-06-10T06:44:00.000-07:00

A person should not be greedy, and honestly if you had told me four days ago we were going to win two of three against the Giants, I would have been delighted. Still, you hate to waste a 7 run performance on a loss.

There are a lot of places to look, but (sadly) you cannot hang this one on Jose Lima. Although far from stellar, Lima's velocity was up around 90mph on the fastball and his control was better (no walks and no home runs allowed). Sure, it took him 79 pitches to get through 5 innings and he was tagged for four runs, three of them earned, but Jose did strike out four. Additionally, Lima was the victim of some bad luck, particularly the ball popping out of DeJesus' glove on a great effort in the fifth inning, and some shaky defense (something we had not seen in the first two games of the series).

So, tell me why....DeJesus, Diaz and Berroa cannot seem to communicate. This is the same trio that were involved in the pop fly Angel dropped early in Sunday's game against Texas. For all of Angel's faults, that was not his ball. Yesterday, the ball that dropped in the midst of them would not have been an easy play for any of them, but Diaz clearly pulled up and reading his lips after the play, he said to DeJesus 'I thought you called it'. The one criticism I have of DeJesus right now is that he seems a touch tenatitive in the field when it comes to taking charge. He is the centerfielder and he needs to make the call, one way or the other. A similar play occurred later between DeJesus and Brown. Again, a difficult play for either player, but it once more appeared like they both peeled off the ball at the last moment.

Tell me why....Thursday was Leo Nunez education day. There is debate as to whether Nunez was left in too long. One side saying we need to play to win a close game, the other saying that the youngster has to go through these things to develop. Would I have pulled him after three hitters? No. Would I have left him in to face 10 hitters? NO. Would I have at least had someone warming up in the pen PRIOR to hitter number 10 coming up? YES. The time to take Nunez out was either after the Feliz double to score the second and third runs of the inning or after the subsequent walk to Tucker. Part of learning in the majors is having a bad day and getting taken out in the middle of it, then coming back the next day. I don't think you learn anything knowing you're getting a full inning no matter how bad it gets (that's what the minors are for). I like Nunez, and I think he will be a very good pitcher, but yesterday was the first Buddy Bell era managerial move that really got under my skin. This was not an inning that got ugly in a hurry, it was a 10 hitter, 25 pitch, no home run death march during which no one was ever throwing in the pen. By the way, why not Sisco throwing in the pen to face the lefty Michael Tucker? Anyway, I hope Leo took copious notes.

Tell me why...as the Royals fought back valiantly in the top of the seventh both Mark Teahen and John Buck took called strike threes to end the rally. I mean, down the middle of the plate called strike threes (speaking of which, did anyone else think home plate was really hard to see on TV this series?). Yes, they were probably both looking for a pitch different from what they got, but you're down with runners on base - you have to expand the zone and be aggressive.

Tell me why...I can never be happy. Shane Costa and Matt Stairs both struck out swinging in the ninth on pitches well out of the zone. Maybe they should have been more patient, you have to be in that situation (just being sarcastic here). I think Costa has the curse of the quick bat, knowing that he can get contact on most anything inside, he went and missed for a pitch that had a chance of hitting him on the inside of his back ankle.

All in all, though, a very good road series for our Royals. Even yesterday, in a game where they frankly did not have a great 'team' day, they hung in and had a chance to win. Tonight will be a very telling night with regard to Zack Greinke. Will we see that 92-93 fastball with regularity? One can only hope.

This LOOKS Like a Real Baseball Team

2005-06-09T07:59:00.000-07:00

The Royals are getting good pitching, playing good defense (maybe even great) and getting timely hitting: Let's face it, other than a dismal weekend against Texas, this team is playing really good baseball right now.

Last night, they turned three pretty difficult double plays in three consecutive innings that kept the Giants from mounting a serious threat. Affeldt looked 'okay' and MacDougal really looked comfortable in the ninth. Lineup wise, and the Royals are hindered by no designated hitter, but I would like to see Shane Costa get some more at-bats. However, I have to be honest, you can't sit down Emil Brown and all Terrance Long does is getting multiple hits in every game AND I want to play Diaz too AND Graffanino is all of a sudden a dangerous hitter. It may all have to wait until we are back under American League rules, but I like Costa's approach at the plate and his quick bat. Additionally, there is no point in having him up here sitting on the bench: either play him five times a week or send him to Omaha to get more at-bats.

Now, how about Runelvys Hernandez? He may never get efficient enough with his pitches to consistently go deep into games, but his is averaging just over 6 innings per start and Runelvys appears to be finding his groove. Last night was a tough night to pitch and a tight strike zone to throw into, but Hernandez's control continues to be an issue (39 BB in 78.2 innings). Prior to surgery in 2003 Hernandez had issued 37 walks in 91.2 innings. Still, I see improvement mentally and his control has been off for one batter at a time as opposed to an entire inning as it had been earlier. I predict at some point this year, Runelvys will have a string of three or four 'lights-out' starts and a whole bunch more of 'decent' 6 inning stints. He is not an ace, probably not even a number 2 guy, but he is solid in our rotation.

If you want a little more on the 2005 draft, check the KCRoyals site for some organizational snippets on each pick. Also, check out RoyalsCorner for an interesting look at Justin Bristow - not your ordinary 22nd round pick. Here's hoping the Royals really commit to being better and pony up the money to bring in this 'bonus first rounder'.

Andres Blanco is playing second base at High Desert. Baird's explanation is that Berroa is our shortstop for the foreseeable future, hence Blanco was blocked. My concern is that Blanco, an outstanding defensive player, will never hit enough to justify the second base position. His .317 average last year in KC was mostly a mirage and he has consistently had the bat knocked out of his hands at virtually every level of minor league ball. Wouldn't it make more sense to have Blanco display his defensive skills at AAA Omaha at shortstop in an effort to market him as part of a trade package?

Billy Butler has a bruised hand (thanks, Rush for the info on that) and the organization has now broken down and admitted they are going to work him out in left field. That does open a spot later this year in High Desert for a third baseman - say a first round draft pick? Not sure if we will start Gordon that high, but I would be tempted.

It's Lima Time this afternoon.....well, two out of three on the road isn't bad.

Carrasco, the Draft and More

2005-06-08T15:30:00.000-07:00

D.J. Carrasco continues to shine in the starting rotation. Besides some nasty stuff, I really like his approach on the mound. He does not panic or get frustrated when falling behind in the count, plus you can see he has a plan. I particularly like that as he gets into the order for the third time, D.J. occasionally drops down to a sidearm delivery. Entering the game last night with 7 walks and 7 strikeouts, Carrasco walked none and struck out three. If D.J. can continue to master his control, he could be a very effective number three starter. Carrasco started ahead in the count (i.e. threw a first pitch strike) to 19 of the 32 batters he faced Tuesday night, about the right mix in my book. Too many first pitch strikes and you're Zack Greinke last Sunday, not enough and you're Kirk Reuter last night.

Speaking of Kirk Reuter, the Royals did a masterful job of excercising patience against him, swining at just 12 of 42 first pitches. At times this blog has railed against being too patient, but last night that patience paid off.

Hey, somebody actually wanted Eli Marrero! And just when you thought the Orioles had it all figured out. In exchange for the right handed hitter of no one, KC received Pete Maestrales, who was assigned to Class A Burlington. Maestrales played college ball at Delaware University, then in the Giants organization, then two years in the Atlantic League. This year, he had played pretty much every position. If there is such a thing as kharma, this guy turns into Frank Mennechino, or for us older guys, Bill Pecota (see I don't ask for much, just little).

The second day fo the 2005 Draft is winding down, but at this point the Royals have drafted FOUR MORE CATCHERS (did I miss the memo that we have 5 rookie league teams this year or something?), and, of course, a slew of pitchers. Notables from day two so far are:

Kevin Bulger, P, College of Charleston - 6'4", 195 lbs, with a heavy sinking fastball and a slurve

Nikolas Lowe, CF, Enterprise H.S. Alabama - The ball is said to 'jump' off his bat and he consistently makes hard contact. When scouts say the ball jumps off your bat, it is never a bad thing.

Nicholas Romero, SS, Eastlake H.S., California - A switch-hitting shortstop with strong arms. Sounds like a guy who could turn into a power hitting second basemen.

Justin Bristow, SS, Miles Goding H.S. Virginia - Another big shortstop (6'4, 220) who bats right handed with raw pull power and a quick bat. Also noted was good plate discipline (for a high schooler) and his ability to drive the ball to all fields. Anyone else picturing a right handed power hitting corner outfielder?

Finally, loyal readers to this blog will note that the only two games the Royals have lost since Buddy Bell took over are the two that I physically attended. As a true Royals fan and humanitarian in general, I pledge not to watch all the games on TV until at least mid-July.

Draft 2005 - Day One

2005-06-07T21:11:00.000-07:00

Kansas City did not go cheap with the second overall pick, nor did they go for the 'toolsy' high school phenom. Instead, the Royals took exactly who they should in Nebraska third baseman Alex Gordon. Here's a quick rundown of the day one picks (and I apologize for the incomplete research - I'm on jury duty this week, so I am slacking off a little):

First - Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
There is an excellent summary of Gordon over at Royals Corner and a less comprehensive one back on few days on this blog. Bottom line, this kid can hit and then he'll hit some more. He is better defensively than he was his first two years here at Nebraska, but he still may project out at first base in the long run. The Royals think Gordon can make the big time in 'one and a half to two years'. Bank on him for April 2007.

Second - Jeffrey Bianchi, SS, Lampeter HS PA
Ranked as the 126th best prospect by Baseball America (BA for short) and described as very athletic and agile by MLB.com. He was the best prep talent in Pennsylvania and Bianchi's high school coach is the brother of KC Minor League instructor Jeff Garber. He could very well be a good player down the road (say about 2009 when Berroa's contract is running down), but I wonder if maybe the Royals opted for signability with this pick.

Third - Chris Nicoll, RHP, UC-Irvine
Although picked 32 spots lower than Bianchi at number 82, Nicoll was actually rated slightly higher by Baseball America (121). Here's some numbers you will like: 111 innings pitched, 113 strikouts and just 24 walks. Here's a comment you many not via BA: 'saavy pitcher makes hitters swing and miss with average stuff'. Baird refers to him as a strike thrower who could move through the system quickly. You would maybe like someone with a more electric arm this high, but if he truly is 'saavy' and not a 'nibbler', Nicoll could be a major leaguer at some point.

Fourth - Joseph Dickerson, OF, Esperanza High CA
At 6'1", 190 you have to like the frame on this high schooler. A left handed hitter who played centerfield, probably projects in left in the majors.

Fifth - Shawn Hayes, SS, Franklin Pierce College
This left hander stands 6'4" and weighs 220 lbs, making one think he may not end up at shortstop when he starts playing for money. He is an athlete who projects with gap power and then some. You have to question his exposure to upper level talent at a small college, but you have to like the potential.

Sixth - Ryan DiPietro, LHP, Eastern Connecticut State
Skinny, or 'narrow' according to MLB.com, at 6'0" 170 lbs. Something of a finesse pitcher, again it all comes back to is he nibbling or working the plate? Basically, does he think like Darrel May or more like Jamie Moyer.

Seventh - Brent Fisher, LHP, Tolleson Union High AZ

Eighth - Nicholas Doscher, C, Moore Catholic High NY
The first of three pitchers taken in a row to 'fill an organizational need'. I'm not so sure picking catchers is a more inexact science than pitchers. At any rate, the Royals have a bunch to pick from now.

Ninth - Kiel Thibault, C, Gonzaga University
6'0" 200 lbs sound like a catcher to me. Has quick defensive skills and a good arm, with solid leadership skills. That's pretty much the description for 97% of all the catchers in America.

Tenth - Jeffery Howell, C, Florida Southern
Same size as Thibault, line drive hitter, good hands. I don't think John Buck needs to be looking over his shoulder at any of these guys...maybe Adam Donachie should be, but not Buck.

Eleventh - Michael Penn, RHP, Michigan
Big kid, 6-4 200 lbs, from a major college program. You have to have guys on the mound in Rookie ball and I always favor the big guys from the big schools, if only because they have faced other big guys from big schools.

Twelfth - James Harkcom, RHP New Mexico JC
Fastball/slider pitcher who sounds good on paper. A fast worker, which I always thinks indicates a pitcher instead of a thrower. Of the pitchers drafted to this point, this guy could be a suprise once they start playing. I guess I am annointing James as the Royals Op-Ed draft sleeper.

Thirteenth - Andrew Larsen, OF, NYU-Stonybrook
Hard nosed player, agressive in the field and at the plate with a quick bat. Again, the talent level question comes up, but this guys does not sound like someone who will give up easily.

Fourteenth - Antonio Sabatini, OF, Erskine College SC
With that name you ought to able to play.

Fifteenth - Brady Everett, C, Washington State
Because you need four catchers.

Sixteenth - Mario Santiago, RHP, Baton Rouge CC

Seventeenth - Miguel Vasquez, SS, DeWitt Clinton High Bronx NY
Supposedly has great range in the field and is a solid character guy. It's touch and go down in this part of the draft, but that does not mean we will never hear of these guys again. We didn't hear much about Ruben Gotay when he was drafted in the 31st round and I like guys that can play defense, so maybe Vasquez is another sleeper.

Eighteenth - Paul Ragilone, RHP, Grant High OR

Draft Day

2005-06-07T05:18:00.000-07:00

Good morning and welcome to draft day! I wonder if fans of teams with records over .500 are as interested as we are about their team's picks? In case you missed it, I did review the top picks from both the 2003 and 2004 drafts a few weeks ago. Today, I thought we would take a look at the Royals' past drafts as a whole. To clarify a couple of headings used below: 'On the Verge' is a player who could get the call to the majors at any moment based on ability, not injuries. 'Major Prospects' are players who I believe have a very good chance of being starters in the majors at some point in the future. 'Have a Chance' are players who I think will get a taste of the majors and could be solid contributors, but maybe not everyday players.

2004 - This is obviously incomplete with these guys just having a year under their belts.
In the Majors - None
On the Verge - J.P. Howell
Major Prospects - Billy Butler, Bill Buckner, Matt Campbell
Have a Chance - Too many too note
Overview - Way too early to tell, but you have to like this crop of players so far, especially Howell.

2003
In the Majors - Shane Costa
On the Verge - None
Major Prospects - Mitch Maier, Luis Cota
Have a Chance - Chris Lubanski, Robert McFall, Mike Aviles
Overview - Costa probably doesn't get the early callup on a good team, but he has potential. Maier is moving fast through the system and Cota looks like a steal, although he's a year away at best. By 2007, this draft could be providing the Royals with everyday left and right fielders, a starting pitcher and two quality reserves.

2002
In the Majors - Zack Greinke
On the Verge - Donnie Murphy
Major Prospects - Jonah Bayliss, Micah Kaaihue, Jason Kaanoi
Have a Chance - Matt Tupman, Adam Keim
Overview - Greinke, current problems aside, makes any draft look good. Murphy could develope into an above average second basemen, either with KC or somewhere else, and is almost ready. The rest are a ways away yet, but there is potential...and more young arms.

2001
In the Majors - None
On the Verge - Danny Tamayo (it's a reach but he IS in Omaha)
Major Prospects - None
Have a Chance - Colt Griffin, Mel Stocker, Devon Lowery
Overview - Ughhh, best describes this draft. Tamayo is nothing to get too excited about, Griffin still can't throw strikes, Lowery melted down and Stocker is serviceable. You can blame this draft for the reason we experimented with Eli Marrero, Jose Lima and Terrance Long.

2000
In the Majors - David DeJesus, Ruben Gotay
On the Verge - None
Major Prospects - Brian Bass
Have a Chance - Michael Stodolka, Darren Fenster, Justin Gemoll
Overview - Gotay was picked in the 31st round and DeJesus will play centerfield for KC until we decide we can't pay him anymore. Bass has been slow in coming but could be helpful. Fenster and Gemoll probably won't ever be regulars but they could be McEwing and Graffanino only ten years younger (and thus, less annoying). Ryan Bukvick and Mike Tonis were part of this draft.

1999
In the Majors - Kyle Snyder, Mike MacDougal, Ken Harvey
On the Verge - Jimmy Gobble
Major Prospects - None
Have a Chance - Kyle Middleton (49th round pick), Ryan Baerlocher
Overview - Really a pretty decent draft, especially if you remember that Mark Ellis and Wes Obermueller were also part of this crop.

1998
In the Majors - None (with the Royals)
On the Verge - None
Major Prospects - None
Have a Chance - Paul Phillips, Chris George (stop laughing)
Overview - Not very good, and the best of the bunch we traded (Shawn Sedlacek).

1997
In the Majors - Jeremy Affeldt
On the Verge - None
Major Prospects - None
Have a Chance - None
Overview - That's right, after Affeldt (unless you want to count Kris Wilson) there is nothing left from 1997.

In looking at 1997 and 1998 you can see why the Royals' system was so down and 2001 did not help either. Although such a quick review is skewed toward making the more recent years look better (as there is still time to hope), it does appear that KC has done a better job of drafting recently. Here's hoping that trend continues today.

Minors and Drafts and Moves - Oh My

2005-06-06T07:33:00.000-07:00

With an off-day to catch our breath and regroup and collect ourselves over the outrage of Franciso Cordero disprecting the Royals (sarcasm intended), I have some random thoughts on tomorrow's draft and some minor league notes.

First the draft, where everyone seems to think that Kansas City should take Alex Gordon out of Nebraska. I agree, this kid can hit and could be in the majors as early as spring 2007. He could play third base adequately if Teahen does not work out by then, but I think his future is at first. There is also talk that he is athletic enough to move to the outfield, but who knows. The Huskers won their regional yesterday and play Miami here in Lincoln in the Super Regional. So there's a good chance you may be able to catch him on ESPN this weekend.

If the Royals do not take Gordon, for whatever reason, I would lobby for taking Troy Tulowitzki. He is a shortstop out of Long Beach State and was rated as 'the most major league ready player in the draft'. In my mind, Gordon & Tulowitzki are the only two legitimate choices if the Royals are looking for someone to help them early.

With their second round pick, my hope is KC goes for another position player. With Howell (see more about him below), Campbell, Buckner and Cota all in the organization, the Royals really have no need to go get another young pitcher with this high a pick. Here are some names lingering at the bottom of the first round that could fall to us:
Cliff Pennington, SS - Texas A&M
Taylor Teagarden, C - Texas
Brandon Snyder, C-SS - High School (you have to like the athleticism of a guy who can catch AND play short)
Colby Rasmus, OF - High School

Onto the Minors. I mentioned yesterday that there were rumors that J.P. Howell would be the pitcher called up to start this Saturday versus Arizona. That rumor gains strength in my mind as Howell has been moved to Omaha and will start tonight - putting him on schedule to make the Saturday start. Last year at this time, Howell was getting ready to pitch in the College World Series. By the way, all he did in three Wichita starts was go 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA with 23 striketouts and ONE WALK.

Speaking of players on the move, Mitch Maier has been sent up to Wichita and is off to a 4 for 13 start. I am already thinking about an outfield of Costa, DeJesus and Maier on opening day NEXT year.

Justin Huber, everybody's favorite bat, has cooled some in Wichita but still sports a line of 321/421/514/935 with 16 doubles and 7 home runs. He does have seven errors at first base, but most of those occurred earlier in the year. Barring a trade of Sweeney (which I hope does not happen) I am beginning to think we won't see Justin in KC until September.

Billy Butler is currently sporting numbers of 355/440/650/1090 in High Desert with 15 homer runs and 18 errors. There is talk of him working out in left field, a move long overdue in my book. Butler has not played the last five games for High Desert, but I cannot ascertain if he is hurt or just being held out (maybe working on playing the outfield?).

Speakin of High Desert, Kila Kaaihue is hitting 357/445/552/997. He has 8 errors at FIRST BASE, so he fits right into the Kansas City mode of first basemen. Given that he is looking up at Sweeney, Harvey, Huber, Pickering (just threw that in for laughs), Pressley, Santos, maybe Butler, maybe Gordon, we may never see Kila in the bigs for KC, but if he keeps hitting he could be attractive trade bait down the road.

Everyone think Alex Gordon today. Perhaps all the mental energy will make it to Allard Baird.

Dismal Weekend Recap

2005-06-05T19:52:00.000-07:00

A dismal weekend performance by the Royals - bordering on dreadful.

Saturday
Lima is typical Lima and surrenders a four run lead in about the time it took me to pay the beer man. Leaving after 3 2/3 innings to some boos, Lima responded by clapping toward the crowd. Save the act for then your ERA gets below 7.00, Jose. I just don't see him getting better as he was changing speeds but fooling no one.

The bullpen was due for a bad day and that's exactly what ensued. The sad thing was if we could have just stopped the bleeding we could have stayed in this game. Stemle & Wood were just horrible, but that is going to happen and both had been superb prior to this game. Affeldt looked a little rusty, but his stuff was there: 94/95 mph fastball and some nasty curves.

One downside on the offense's nine runs - we ended the 6th, 7th AND 8th innings with runners on base and the batter TAKING called third strikes. I would rather we strike out swinging at borderline pitches than leaving it in the hands of the umpire.

Sunday
Greinke decided to throw 88 mph fastballs instead of 92/93 and was just pretty much lit up. I think Zack overthinks pitching sometimes and tries to be too cute - that's what happened today against a good hitting team.

The offense was flat, at best - I didn't see any of the guys out on the town Saturday night at the Plaza, but they sure looked like they had been. By the way, can we end the Tony Graffanino batting fifth/playing first base experiment? This team had a load of guys who can play first, we don't need another one.

By the way, I don't think I wrote it here, but I did post on the KC Star discussion board that there was a chance that Jensen would get the axe once Affeldt came back. See - sometimes I do know what I am talking about - sometimes. Not sure I like the move that much, especially with Lima getting lit up again, but I do understand it given that we do not need a fifth starter the next round through the rotation.

Rumor had it that J.P. Howell could get the call to make a start on Saturday (the next time the fifth slot comes up). While that is probably the wrong move, it will make the game exciting. Of course, we can all hold out hope it will be Chris George.......

Ready for the Weekend

2005-06-03T20:52:00.000-07:00

A quick post as we prepare for the run to KC tomorrow for two Royals games, dinner and drinks down on the plaza and a fair share of adult beverages.

Here is hoping that either Lima (okay, stop laughing) or Greinke can give us a solid 7+ innings this weekend. As well as our starters have done during this four game winning streak, we have asked our bullpen to provide 14 pressure innings over the last four days. That is a pretty heavy load.

Now, neither Sisco nor MacDougal threw an outlandish number of pitches tonight, and with Wood and Stemle good to go for a couple of innings a piece behind Lima (I'm afraid we'll need at least four before we get to the back of the bullpen guys) we are not in horrible shape. However, from a mental standpoint, if not physical a well pitched game where the starter goes deep in addition to the off-day on Monday would be a much welcome respite.

Count me as officially on the MacDougal bandwagon. He has not been perfect, but he has been uncharacteristically resilient - not to mention that filthy third strike to Soriano tonight. Plus, it looks like Andrew Sisco has made his adjustments to the league and is once more an effective late inning setup guy. Whether in the pen or the rotation, the ceiling on Sisco is somewhere beyond my line of sight.

In two games, Shane Costa has yet to do anything that would make me want to take him out of the lineup. I really like his approach at the plate and can really see him being a solid everyday player once he gets some at-bats under his belt.

We'll be in Section 103 tomorrow and up in the Club Level 207 on Sunday. I will probably be in the only one in a Harvey jersey (hey, it's the only Royal white jersey I have and it is going to be hot) and my wife will be in a Randa jersey. We were going to wear a Beltran Mets jersey and a Randa Reds jersey, but decided that would just be too bitter.

I have every intention of not wanting to and not being able to type tomorrow night, so look for something more relevant and informative (hey, it could happen) on Monday morning. Let's make it six in a row by then!

Draft Update

2005-06-03T08:54:00.000-07:00

Just a quick alert to a nice article about Alex Gordon (not so nice about the Royals, but that's life) on CBSsportsline.com.

Nebraska plays at 1:00 today in the first game of the regional they are hosting. Should they win this region, they will also host the Super Regional next week, by which time us Royal fans will hopefully be cheering for our newest number one draft pick.

Will KC Ever Lose Again?

2005-06-03T06:04:00.000-07:00

Well, yeah.

As a quasi-pessimist it is likely to be this weekend when my wife and I make the first of three pilgrimages to Kansas City to take in the weekend games. As an aside, I cannot say that I will miss Bob Davis' play by play on the Royals Television Network. I like Splitorff, but Davis is just pretty awful.

With regard to the sweep of the Yankees, I am not going to overanalyze any of it because it just feels good to feel like we have an ACTUAL BASEBALL TEAM for once. The Royals were not perfect by any means, but they strung together three very solid all around games. Assuming that MacDougal was unavailable last night, I can't really disagree with any of the pitching moves made. All that happened in the ninth reinforced what I have said for a month: Burgos is going to be a great relief pitcher....someday. For now, he needs to go down to Omaha for more seasoning. Right now, he is mostly a thrower (albeit throwing nasty, nasty stuff) and not much of a pitcher.

No great secret here, but the Royals have become a dramatically better offensive team as of late. Some of the credit has to go to Bob Schaefer for simply freeing the guys from the overbearing idea that they had to work the count, but a lot goes simply to younger guys getting their feet under them. If you simply compare April stats versus May stats you will find that every 'regular' player has improved across the board except for DeJesus, Stairs and Long. In the case of DeJesus, he had an outstanding April (302/375/453/828), had some nagging injuries and a couple of dry spells - I have no worries about him. The kid is going to hit 280-310 for the next 10 years. Stairs is roughly equal, his average and on-base percentage are higher in May, but his slugging (and hence OPS) are lower. Still, Matt had an OPS in April of .897 and in May of .857, not bad at all. With Terrance Long...well, who cares?

Now for the improvers. First you have Sweeney, who went from good numbers in April (.760 OPS) to 'remember-Mike-Sweeney-the-All-Star?' numbers in May (337/370/651/1021). He just looks like a guy who, for the first time in two years, not only feels healthy but actually believes he is healthy. Angel Berroa's improved production has been well documented since Schaefer moved him to the lead-off spot, but his overall May numbers are just a smidge better than his April numbers. Angel is Angel: he will never be as good as we think he should be and he will never be as bad as we think he is.

All of the above, FINALLY gets me to the point (yes, I ramble at times). The four young guys, and I'm lumping Emil Brown in here as he is 'unproven' if not 'young', all of whom struggled mightily in April have all shown improvement in May. Just take a look at the monthly splits:

Emil Brown April - 161/254/339/593
Emil Brown May - 313/389/506/895
Emil may not be '.895' good, but damn those are serious right handed power hitting corner outfielder numbers in May. Funny what happens when you let a guy settle in and play everyday.

Mark Teahen April - 200/294/333/627
Mark Teahen May - 250/286/388/673
Teahen was not healthy in April and his May numbers are not anything to be excited about, EXCEPT if he could make a similar jump by say July, you are looking at 290/320/430/725 and all of sudden you might start thinking 'well, where ARE we going to play Billy Butler and Alex Gordon?'. I also think Teahen is really, really good defensively - coincidence that Angel (save 2 horrible errors in Anaheim) has been much steadier in the field with Teahen playing well beside him?

John Buck April - 190/250/270/520
John Buck May - 222/265/429/693
As with Teahen, neither month is going to have you punching an All-Star ballot, but it is significant improvement. You really have to like the power numbers getting into a decent range. Buck is never going to hit .300, he might never get over .250, but if he can get close to the mid .200s with some power that will justify his position in the lineup.

Ruben Gotay April - 208/241/319/560
Ruben Gotay May - 279/362/410/772
I will take those May numbers for the next ten years out our second basemen. We might have put a little too much on Gotay's shoulders by hitting him second early in the year and then Pena jerked him around after that. Like Brown, playing everyday does wonders. I have not seen anything particularly horrendous defensively either (Graffanino has been worse). Ruben will never win a gold glove, he has neither the range nor the hands for it, but he is average at worst in the field. He may yet lose his job to Donnie Murphy (currently hurt in Wichita but playing well before that), but if you're getting an OPS of .772 out of your number nine hitter, you're not horrible.

Finally, speaking of young guys, I like the bat speed I saw out of Shane Costa last night. Check a previous post here with regard to his career to date and his ability to avoid the strikeout. He will walk some, but he is not going to pile up huge base on balls numbers. Costa is just a kid who can get the bat on the ball almost at will. He's a number two type hitter in my book - could DeJesus develop into a number three guy? Of course, I am a little ahead of the curve here, given Costa has all of one game under his belt, but I saw enough to AT MINIMUM platoon him with Diaz in left.

Everybody Works Hard for a New Boss

2005-06-02T07:25:00.000-07:00

You would like to say that Buddy Bell had instilled a new focus, a new work ethic and just better ball playing in the 48 hours he has been manager of the Royals and hence that is why KC has taken two straight from the Yankees. All of us know that is probably not true. Like any business that gets a new boss or new supervisor, there is a short period of time where everyone has renewed focus and concentration. A time when all the internal disputes and supposed wrongs are forgotten. Basically, a time when everyone tries to impress the new guy.

Sadly, professional baseball players should have this focus and effort almost all of the time and these two games, more than anything else, show how little of those two key elements the Royals put forth on a regular basis. Hopefully, Bell will find a way to keep the concentration and effort at a high level as we have seen a glimmer over the last two days of what this team can do.

To be honest, the Royals have had their share of bloop hits and lucky bounces the last two days. However, give credit to Angel Berroa for being well around first base before either of his bloop doubles last night hit the ground. Berroa, along with DeJesus and Sweeney (yes Mike Sweeney) have been truly outstanding in the field over these two games. Two wins over the Yankees is two wins, I am not going to analyze them too much and lose the buzz. (Okay, just one criticism - do you think we might recognize that with a runner on 2nd and ball hit into the hole that Derek Jeter will ALWAYS throw to third base? KC has managed to get a runner thrown out on that play in both games, actually three runners but one was a force play).

I have stated before that I thought D.J. Carrasco's future was in the bullpen, and it may very well be, but after last night I am having a change of heart. In the first inning he threw pitches ranging from 75 mph to 93 mph and I do not think D.J. could throw something straight if his life depended on it (and I mean that in a good way). Yes, he struggles with his control, walking as many as he strikeouts. Carrasco ususally misses down in the zone and often not by much which has me thinking that as he piles up innings and experience his control problems will be a nuisance instead of a problem. With Brian Anderson out until after the All-Star Break (July 20th is his scheduled return date now), Carrasco will have a decent amount of time to solidfy his position in the back of the rotation. Remember, D.J. is still just 28 and could be a very good number 4 starter for the next two to three years while we let our younger starters (Howell, Campbell, Cota) develop in the minors unhurried.

Couple of other notes....
Bell was quoted as saying they were toying with putting Kyle Snyder into the rotation once he returns from the DL (Snyder is throwing batting practice next week, so I assume he is getting close to ready). With Stemle and Wood pitching well out of the pen, Sisco seeming to be getting back to his early season effectiveness and Affeldt nearing a return shortly, I am in favor of this move. I mean, how often to you REALLY want to see Ryan Jensen pitch? (that ought to ensure he pitches well tonight).
Even if you only allow Snyder to throw 60 or 65 pitches a start, he could fill that role until Bautista comes back, go to Omaha and increase his arm strength and be ready to go for full starter duty in 2006.

Aaron Guiel (see the KC Star article) is content to wait it out in Omaha for now. As you probably remember, he had the option to become a free agent June 1st if the Royals had not called him up to KC yet. Guiel reports that Baird told him to be patient and wait for 'some things to resolve themselves' with the big club. Not sure what that means (moving Terrance Long?). With Emil Brown pretty much nailing down every day duty in right and Costa getting the callup from AA (he did not get called up to sit - nor did Matt Diaz), it is hard to see where another outfielder (left handed hitting to boot) fits into the picture.

I am still waiting for a 'Buddy Bell' lineup. I am certain Bob Schaefer is still doing the bulk of the managing - who else would bat Graffaniono fifth? I expect, given logic and the comments from Bell, that he really won't start making changes until after the one on one player meetings that are supposedly taking place today. I was however, encouraged to learn that before Wednesday's game, Bell had the team out early working on fundamentals. If nothing else, this 2-0 start proves that Bell has some good kharma.

Costa Gets the Call

2005-06-01T08:55:00.000-07:00

Shane Costa jumped from AA Wichita to the big leagues yesterday, replacing Eli Marrero on the roster (thank God, by the way). Anyone else think that escaping from Omaha might be roughly akin to escaping from Alcatraz? Anyway, last week in discussing the 2003 Draft (see post somewhere below this one) I talked briefly about Costa and projected that he could be competing for a job sometime in 2006. Well, the time is apparently now.

There are three things that probably pushed Costa to the big leagues:
1) He played three years at Cal-State Fullerton (big time college baseball), so he came to the organization with some maturity
2) Unless you're calling up Aaron Guiel, there is no one in Omaha worth giving a shot.
3) Shane does not strike out, almost never - a unique trait for Royal hitters - i.e. he has the plate discipline that Baird craves.

Here are Costa's numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS):
01 - Cal St. Ful - 380/452/504/956 - 12 strikeouts in 149 plate appearances
02 - Cal St. Ful - 365/462/567/1029 - 18 strikeouts in 279 plate appearances
03 - Cal St. Ful - 374/442/556/998 - 26 strikeouts in 311 plate appearances
03 - Rookie AZ - 386/444/580/1024 - 7 strikeouts in 95 plate appearances
04 - Wilmington - 307/364/418/782 - 43 strikeouts in 492 plate appearances
05 - Wichita - 272/337/432/769 - 9 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances

Although he won't strike out, Costa had not yet shown that he is going to accumlate walks to huge degree either. At Cal-State Fullerton he walked 38 times in three years and was hit by a pitch 57 times. Shane's is more a doubles/triples hitter as opposed to a true power hitter and he has some speed (9 steals at Wilmington last year). I envision kind of a DeJesus like hitter, maybe a touch more power.

His exposure to major league pitching is a grand total of 4 at-bats in spring training, so there is going to be a pretty extensive transition period here. However, with Maier and Butler pushing from High A, I think the Royals have decided to find out about Costa here and now. Given that he is not strike out guy and is 23 already, I think this is a good gamble. I also wonder if perhaps Bell has seen or knows something about Costa given the timing of the callup. Of course, Buddy may simply have despised Marrero as much as the rest of us.

Money Trades and the Results

2005-05-31T12:05:00.000-07:00

A common lament among Royal fans is that any young players we develop never stay around. By and large, that is true and an unfortuneate part of modern day baseball. As a result, the Royals have often found themselves in the position of having to move a productive ballplayer for something before losing that player for nothing on the free agent market.

In that respect, the Royals have done a reasonable job at least making some type of trade, good or bad. Only Paul Byrd and Raul Ibanez come to mind as players the Royals did not trade AND wanted to resign, but subsequently wound up not signing. We can debate players they let go on their own accord (i.e. Joe Randa, Michael Tucker, et.al.) another time. For now, let's take a look at the trades made for or because of money.

You can make a case to go back farther than 1999, which is where we are starting, specifically back to the 1995 David Cone trade. However, the Royals were still making ACTUAL BASEBALL TRADES after 1995, acquiring the likes of Bip Roberts, Jeff King, Jay Bell, Dean Palmer and others in the mid to late nineties. As the 1999 season dawned, however, the Royals had become sellers at the trading deadline because of economics, hence that is where we'll start.

July 31, 1999 - Kevin Appier traded to Oakland for Blake Stein, Brad Rigby and Jeff D'Amico
Appier was coming off surgery during 1998 and sported just a 9-9 record with a 4.87 ERA in 1999 for the Royals, but he was still eating innings and regaining his effectiveness. Appier won 115 games for the Royals prior to the trade and KC definitely got more mileage out of him than the A's, Mets and Angels combined (54-45), but Ape had three good seasons from 2000 to 2002 - seasons the Royals could have used when they were scoring runs by the bushel and giving up runs by the truckload.
In return, the Royals got 92 games and a 5.02 ERA out of Stein before releasing him in late 2002. Brad Rigby appeared in all of 4 games before being shipped to Montreal in early 2000 for Miguel Batista. Batista was young, wild and sometimes effective, and ended up with a 7.74 ERA in 57 innings for the Royals. He was let go at the end of the 2000 season and since then has been an useful, sometimes dominating-sometimes erratic swingman for Arizona and Toronto. Jeff D'Amico would have been a great find, if it was the Jeff D'Amico that came up with Milwaukee - he was not.
Had the Royals held onto Batista, they would have gotten some decent value out of this trade (albeit in a roundabout way). Instead, Kansas City failed to help themselves at all in trading Appier and by September 2002 had nothing to show for the trade.

January 8, 2001 - Johnny Damon & Mark Ellis to Oakland for Roberto Hernandez, A.J. Hinch and Angel Berroa
Damon was coming off his two best seasons in 1999 and 2000 when he posted an OPS of .856 and .877. With five and one-half years with Royals, he was also going to be a free agent at the end of 2001. Damon also had made it quite clear he was unlikely to resign (nor were the Royals likely to pay) with the team and thus a Money Trade was made. Although Damon has hardly dropped off production wise, his OPS in 2004 of .857 was the only season since leaving the Royals in which he topped .800.
Mark Ellis has played second base for Oakland in 289 games (missing all of 2004 with an injury) and hit .260 with 53 doubles and 15 home runs. A solid player, who could have helped Kansas City after the decline of Carlos Febles and not forced Ruben Gotay to be rushed to the majors, Ellis was an unfortuneate add-on to this trade.
Now, keep in mind that the Royals were the second best offensive team in the league in 2000, but had blown 26 (TWENTY-SIX) save opportunities. With that frame of reference, getting an aging yet effective Roberto Hernandez was more a baseball move than a money move. Although never popular in KC and definitely at the end of his run as a closer, Hernandez did save 54 of 67 games for the Royals before being let go at the end of the 2002 season and still performs well in a set-up/middle relief role.
A.J. Hinch was a low average/occasional power catcher at Oakland, he was the same in 117 games over two seasons for the Royals and has not improved since (and struggled to find/keep a job, by the way). I have no idea if this trade would have gone down with KC keeping Ellis and Oakland keeping Hinch, but that sure would have been a better deal.
Angel Berroa...well, we all know Angel. We know he aged two years shortly after the trade, we know he won Rookie of the Year, we know he faltered and we know he can be frustrating/brilliant/horrible/invaluable. We don't know if he will, during the life of his long-term deal with KC, develop into the player many of us think he could be.
As it stands now, this trade boiled down to Damon for Berroa (we'll say Hernandez & Ellis cancel one another out). It could have been worse, it could have been Neifi Perez.

July 25, 2001 - Jermaine Dye leaves KC, Perez joins KC in a three way trade
Ahhh, this is the trade people really, really hate. At the time, Dye was coming of a 2000 season where he hit .321/.390/.561/.951 with 33 homers and 188 rbi. He was even open to the idea of resigning with Kansas City, albeit at a salary number the Royals were unlikely to consider. Dye was the right handed power hitter we have always wanted at a corner outfield spot. However, after hitting a combined .282 with 26 homers and 106 rbi for KC and Oakland in 2001, Dye has never hit over .265 since. His OPS has never topped .800 and his on-base percentage has been .333 or below. Like Damon, his 1999-2000 run remains the most productive point of his career.
Neifi Perez was really never very good outside of Coors Field. He had missed only 3 games in three years (98-00) for Colorado and was a .280 hitter with on-base percentages that in the very low .300's. He had hit some doubles (39 in 2000) and some triples (11 twice) and a little power (31 homers in three seasons) - Neifi, well, was a poor-man's Angel Berroa (YIKES!!!!). Almost instantly hated (with good reason) in Kansas City, Perez played 145 games in 2002 and posted putrid numbers of .236/.260/.303/.563 with an attitude to match. He has since gone on to perform with similar results for San Francisco and the Cubs.
In short, the Royals got nothing from Perez when he was in KC and have nothing to show for Jermaine Dye. Dye, however, has not produced for either Oakland or the White Sox like he did for Kansas City. Although the Royals should have been able to get so much more than Neifi Freaking Perez, they lost little in terms of production from Dye.

July 31, 2001 - Rey Sanchez traded for Brad Voyles and Alejandro Machado
Not going to spend a lot of time here. Sanchez was a steady performer for the Royals at short, but was on the back side of his career at this point (and we had Neifi Perez for godssake!). He has never played regularly since the trade, nor been the .290 hitter that he was for KC.
Brad Voyles bounced between Omaha and KC, was never very effective and I believe ended up in Japan or Korea where I assume he remains erratic at best. Alejandro Machado was traded for Curtis Leskanic on July 2, 2003 as the Royals tried to make a run in the A.L. Central. Leskanic was good in 2003, killed us in early 2004, ended up in Boston and helped them (or at least didn't keep them from winning) a championship. Machado has some promise, but has never risen above AA.
All in all, this was not a horrible as Leskanic was more help in late 2003 than Sanchez would
have been.

2004 - Grimsley & Beltran
It is obviously too early to tell on these two trades that I am assuming we don't have to rehash. With Grimsley out with an injury and probably on the backside of his career, you have to like the potential of Denny Bautista. This trade was something of a head scratcher on the Baltimore side when it went down. Imagine what it could look like if Bautista becomes a front line starter in the coming year.
The one thing you can say about the Beltran trade is that all three guys are playing for the Royals right now. Mike Wood is probably destined to be a middle reliever, but an effective one and a guy the Royals will most likely be able to hold onto as long as they want to. John Buck has been ordained the catcher of the future, has some pop and may yet hit above .250. Mark Teahen is very good defensively, shows signs at the plate and could develop into....well, Joe Randa (only younger).

BOTTOM LINE
Boiling down all of the above, the Royals currently have Angel Berroa, Denny Bautista, John Buck, Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to show for their money trades. The got two decent seasons out of Roberto Hernandez and rented Curtis Leskanic for a half a season and pretty much nothing else from the rest. This is not a condemnation of the organization, as they pretty much had to make these trades or get absolutely nothing in return (possibly excepting Dye and Sanchez). Kansas City does have five young guys who could/should/might get better, while giving up six guys, five of whom are likely to get worse (i.e. older).
Did the Royals do a great job of getting value for their Money Trades? No. Did they get killed? No. Right now, they are somewhere in the middle. Basically, Neifi Perez aside, they could have done worse.

Quick Hits

2005-05-31T07:28:00.000-07:00

I am working on a better post for later this morning, but wanted to get in a few notes before then.

First, if you have not read the KC Star either the traditional way or via the web, you need to do so this morning. A fairly grim article by Bob Dutton on the mental status of the team, particularly with regard to apparent splits in the clubhouse between veterans and young players and also between Latin players and American players. Specific reference is made to the Latin pitchers either segregating themselves from the team or being segregated. Any of you who don't like Matt Stairs, will like him after reading his quotes.

Also, ESPN.com is reporting that Buddy Bell will be the next manager of the Royals. His track record is not very good, although he has never been in charge of teams that had much hope. To be honest, he was far from my first choice (I pretty much wanted the meanest, most abrasive guy we could find), but any change is exciting when you are in the midst of a disaster like this season. Whether Bell is the new manager, or someone else actually is, the first step they need to make is change EVERYTHING in the clubhouse simply for the sake of changing things. It is very apparent to me that this team needs a gigantic kick in the ass.

Finally, Jeff Pentland got the axe this weekend. My guess is that either he was viewed as not buying into Baird's idea of plate discipline or whomever they have lined up as the next manager does not like Pentland to begin with. If I was more ambitious, I would do some research as to who Pentland had worked with in the past that is on our list, but it IS the day after a holiday weekend and I'm not feeling that energetic.

More later.

Scoring Efficiency and other Notes

2005-05-30T09:38:00.000-07:00

There are a myriad of baseball statistics, probably too many (unless you're Billy Beane or Bill James) and number of which you can use to pretty much define any circumstance any way you want to. However, in the end you pretty much just have to score more runs than you give up. Which got me to wondering if the Royals are efficient in their use of baserunners.

To score runs, obviously, you have to get runner on base and in that category we all know that the Royals are dead last in the American League with an on-base percentage of .303. Now, if you are not going to get a bunch of guys on base, then you have to be very efficient at scoring those that you do have. The American League average right now stands at 37.58% of all runners that get on, go ahead and eventually score. The leader percentage wise is the Texas Rangers who score 43.59% of their runners. Oakland is the worst, scoring just 31.58%. The Royals? Well, they are 10th in the league at 36.48%. Here's the complete list:

TEX 43.59%
BAL 40.34%
LAA 39.64%
NYY 39.57%
TOR 38.69%
TAM 37.93%
BOS 37.85%
CHI 37.50%
SEA 36.79%
KCR 36.48%
DET 35.98%
MIN 35.02%
CLE 34.15%
OAK 31.58%

THE GOOD NEWS - For the month of May, Kansas City has scored an even 40% of their baserunners, a very good number.
THE BAD NEWS - Over the last seven days, Kansas City has scored just 30.98% of their baserunners, a very bad number.

Sadly, although the Royals have been an above average offensive team for the majority of May, their good pitching of April has all but evaporated. Given the injuries to the pitching staff, this may be a situation that will not soon be rectified.

RANDOM NOTES
Speaking of injuries, it appears that Brian Anderson will not be back in the rotation until August. This all but eliminates him from being possible trade bait and also will make it even harder for the Royals to cut ties with The Imploder Jose Lima.

Gabe DeHoyos, a former Northern League pitcher for Schaumburg, earned a promotion for Low A Burlington all the way up to AAA Omaha, where he promptly got tagged for 4 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning of work. His number were outstanding in Burlington: 1.52 ERA, 35 strikeouts in almost 30 innings with just 11 walks, so it may have been just one of those nights for DeHoyos. Like Byron Emby (currently on the Omaha DL), DeHoyos has paid his dues. In his last season and a half for Schaumburg and his two half seasons in Burlington, Gabe has never allowed more hits than innings pitched and has averaged just over a strikeout per inning. My take on this huge jump up the ranks is that the Royals may be contemplating going with some veteran journeymen (Stemle, DeHoyos, et.al.) in the pen and give youngsters like Burgos and Nunez time to mature in the minors.

You'll note a link to The Pipeline over on the right. This is a great site for those of you who want some detailed and virtually daily updates up and down the Royals farm system.

One more farm note. J.P. Howell was very good in his second start for Wichita and Kyle Middleton followed up with another good start the next night. These two have been, by far, the best starters in the system this year. Howell is certainly on the fast track, but Middleton is not well into his second AA season. Although generally regarded as a non-prospect and possessing stuff that is at best ordinary, I think it is time to push Middleton to AAA and see if he continues to be effective. Jimmy Gobble's ERA is over 7.00 and Chris George and Dennis Tankersely are still themselves, so what do we have to lose?

Yikes

2005-05-27T13:06:00.000-07:00

Did you know that Angel Berroa and Ruben Gotay are the only middle-infield combination in the majors to have not committed an error in May? Is that really true? Before the season started I did state that all I really wanted out of Berroa was great defense...but wait, that was BEFORE the ninth inning of last night's game. Not one, but two errors by Berroa that quite simply just gave the game away (you didn't really expect MacDougal to pitch well in the 10th did you?).

I have to be honest, I went to bed (yes, I'm getting old) after the Royals scored four in the top of the 9th to go up 8-3. My wife even said "we surely can't give up that big a lead". So luckily, I did not have to witness the debacle live and thus the whole event is somewhat surreal to me and less painful - thank, God.

The real shame is that a great effort by D.J. Carrasco was wasted. Although I think D.J. is better suited for the bullpen, he is showing signs of being a capable back of the rotation guy at least in the short term. Speaking of rotations, anybody else have a curiosity about what would happen if we gave Andy Sisco a start? I mean, exactly what do we have to lose?

For those of you interested, the Royals swung at the first pitch just under 40% of the time - probably a bit high, but they only took a called first strike on 42% of their remaining at-bats - pretty good. Yes, a portion of their 8 runs were a little lucky, but still it pays to start your at-bat ahead in the count.

Matt Stairs was quoted on KCRoyals.com that this team was very close to being very good. I have to admit thinking the same thing, sometimes, but those thoughts are getting farther apart. Much farther apart.

What happened to the Agression?

2005-05-27T07:23:00.000-07:00

-Aggression-
When Bob Schaefer took over as interim manager, he advocated a new 'aggressive approach' at the plate and for the first week and a half it seemed to work. As many of you know, that got me to tracking first pitches and found that in that 11 game stretch where the Royals were hitting the ball quite well they really were NOT swinging at the first pitch any more than under Pena (30 to 32% of the time for both). What had changed was what the Royals did with first pitches they did not swing at (i.e. the other 70%) and there, under Pena, KC took strike one looking on 60%+ of those remaining pitches but under Schaefer they were taking the remaining first pitches for strikes only 45% of the time.

However, this week in Texas, everything went haywire. As reported earlier on Tuesday, Kansas City swung at the first pitch 44.7% of the time, and took 62% of the remaining pitches for strikes. Then on Wednesday and Thursday the Royals all of sudden got tentative:

First pitch swinging:
Wed - 22.9%
Thu - 28.6%

Remaining pitches taken for strikes:
Wed - 55.6%
Thu - 64.0%

All of the above resulted in a major league butt kicking in Arlington, Texas. We will have to see what happens in Anaheim this weekend. Were the first handful of games under Schaefer the rule or the exception? Are the Royals reverting to early season form or just did not have good at-bats in Texas?

-Lima-
Add me to the list of people who never want to see Lima Time again. Here's the runs allowed for all his starts: 5, 7, 5, 4, 1, 5, 5, 5, 7, 2, 8. Of course, prior to his last start, Jimmy Gobble had allowed 19 runs in 18 innings in AAA and Dennis Tankersely is, well, Dennis Tankersely, so making a move with the injuries to Bautista and Anderson is essentially saying we are going with Kyle Middleton straight from Wichita. I'd do it, only because it could not be much worse and then, there is Chris George......

-Rumors-
Buster Olney was on Sportscenter last night (at a sliver in time when they were not talking about the Yankees and Red Sox) and indicated that 'if it was not for the money issue' he thinks a deal moving Sweeney to Anaheim would already be done. Other than saying that the Angels wanted KC to pick up some of Sweeney's salary, he made no mention of players involved, nor could I find any with a quick scan of the morning sites. I am sure more will come up in the coming weeks.

2003 Draft Pick Progress

2005-05-26T19:02:00.000-07:00

With the Royals down 8-1, thanks to yet another Lima implosion, I continue turning my attention to the future. We looked at the top five picks from last year's draft earlier, so let's take a look at the first five from the 2003 draft.

CHRIS LUBANSKI, OF - Although picked number five overall, Lubanski was quite frankly a budget pick and has performed along those lines for much of his young career. At 6'3" and 180 lbs, the 20 year old outfielder was projected as a 'Willie Wilson type'. In his rookie season in Arizona, Chris did hit 326/382/452 - basically playing like a first round pick. Since then, the slow-starting Lubanski has struggled posting these numbers in low A Burlington last year: 273/298/364. While other Royal prospects have prospered this season in High Desert, Lubanski has these paltry hitting numbers to his credit: 213/262/416. Chris does have 8 homers and 4 steals this year in High-A, but it is hard to visualize him as anything more than a journeyman, especially if 2004 first rounder Billy Butler is moved to the outfield (if I say it enough it just might happen).

MITCH MAIER, OF - The 6'2" 195 lb 23 year old was drafted 30th overall out of Toledo and had pretty much peformed like a true first round pick. Taking the move from catcher to third base to the outfiled all in stride, Mitch slugged away in Arizona rookie ball at a 350/403/507 clip. His 2004 season in low-A Burlington was equally successful at 300/354/432 and 34 steals. Getting the call at mid-season to move to high-A Wilmington posed a challenge and Maier's numbers dropped to 259/323/388. However, Mitch has rebounded nicely this year at High Desert (still High-A ball) and is at 345/385/579 currently. Given his half season at High A last year, it might be logical to look for Maier to get a call to Wichita later this year. Like Butler (see 2004 Draft Pick Progress Post), it is likely we'll see Maier by 2007 in a big league uniform.

SHANE COSTA, OF - A second round pick out of Cal State Fullerton, the 6'1" 205 pound lefty hitter stared 2005 in AA Wichita. He lit up the rookie league in 2003, pounding out hitting numbers of 386/444/580 and followed up last year in High A Wilmington with a very good 307/364/418 line with 32 walks and just 43 strikeouts. This year in Wichita, Shane has rebounded from a slow start is is currently at 272/337/432 and just 9 strikeouts in 176 plate appearances. Although overshadowed by Butler, Maier and Lubanski, it is not out of the question that Costa could compete for a job in early 2006, when he will already by 25 years old.

ROBERT MCFALL, OF - Drafted out of junior college, the 6'3" 205 lb 21 year old first base/outfielder has had an up and down career to date. Struggling in his first year in rookie ball to the tune of 220/296/403, McFall then dominated in advanced rookie Idaho Falls posting a line of 359/432/611 with 23 steals and 14 homers. That peformance earned him a late season promotion to Burlington where a disasterous 172/270/219 line came out of 151 at-bats. Understandably, Robert remained in low-A Burlington to start this year and continues to struggle. Currently his line is an unimpressive 218/326/355 with 5 steals.

MIGUEL VEGA, 3B - A fourth round pick in 2003 straight out of high school, the 19 year old checks in at 6'3" 205 and hits from the right side. Year one of Arizona rookie ball ended up at 220/296/403 and brought Vega back for a second year in the same league, where he improved to 275/328/515 with 10 homers. The year in Burlington, Miguel has 28 strikeouts in 93 plate appearances and checks in at 258/295/393. Like McFall, Vega is in danger of being passed up in the system heiarchy by younger and better performing prospects.

Other notables from this draft year are MIKE AVILES, a shortstop out of Concorida College Michigan who was drafte in the 7th round and is already in Wichita, hitting 273/323/448 after a 2004 Wilmington campaign that featured 39 doubles and a 303 batting average. Luis Cota was drafted in the 10th round as a 'draft and follow player', and he struck out 40 in 48 innings last year in Idaho Falls. This year in Burlington, Cota has 1.95 ERA in 50 innings (9 starts) with 58 strikeouts and 25 walks.

Conceivably, you could have two regulars (Maier and Costa), a backup (Aviles) and a starter (Cota) out of this class, with Lubanski being a complete wild card. This, coupled with 2004, is a pretty decent two years worth of drafting. Tomorrow we'll look at the 2002 draft (three guesses as to the who the first pick of the Royals was - and the first two don't count).

2004 Draft Pick Progress

2005-05-26T07:38:00.000-07:00

The Royals drafted 53 players in the 2004 Amateur Draft, most of whom we will never hear of or about. However, with five picks in the first two rounds, 2004 was a critical phase in the continuing development of the farm system. Perhaps more importantly, with an eye towards being contenders in 2007, Kansas City needed to make good choices with those first five picks.

BILLY BUTLER, 3B - Every Royals fan has heard this name, and most cannot wait for him to make his way to Kansas City. Widely regarding as one of the best hitting prospects in all of the minors, the 6'2", 225lb nineteen year old had not disappointed at the plate. Last year at Idaho Falls, Billy dominated: .373/.488/.596, 22 doubles and 10 homers. This year is no different as Butler is hitting .356/.444/.638 with 12 doubles and 12 homers in High Desert. The one concern is where he fits defensively as Butler has 16 errors at third so far this year. However, when you have his kind of bat, teams will find somewhere to put you and I would be suprised if Butler is not in AA sooner rather than later and in Kansas City by late 2006 (if not sooner).

MATT CAMPBELL, LHP - Matt was the first of a trio of college pitchers drafted by KC. At 6'2", 170 lbs, the 23 year old is a left handed starter who is currently trying to find his way in low-A ball at Burlington. Currently Campbell has an 0-5 record with 4.60 ERA. In nine starts covering 47 innings, Matt has walked 28 and struck out 34 while allowing 58 hits. Last year, in 4 Idaho Falls starts, he was symettrical if nothing else: 11 innings, 11 hits, 10 runs, 10 walks, 10 strikeouts. Obviously, control is something of an issue right now, but we are a long way from calling him the next Colt Griffin.

J.P. HOWELL, LHP - A sandwich pick between rounds 1 and 2, Howell is the first of this class to make it to AA. The 6'0" 180 lb, 22 year old earned a promotion to Wichita just last week. Pitching in a 'hitters' league' in High A High Desert, all Howell did in 8 starts was compile a 1.96 ERA in 46 innings. He struck out 48 while walking 24 and allowed just 33 hits. In his first AA start, J.P. went 5 1/3 innings and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits (2 home runs), while striking out 5 and walking 3. Not a bad first start at a higher level. Last year for Idaho Falls, Howell was equally impressive in 26 inning of work, allowing just 16 hits, striking out 38 and walking 12. I do not think it is unreasonable to consider Howell a contender for the 2007 starting rotation.

BILLY BUCKNER, RHP - This second round pick is the biggest of the three pitchers at 6'2", 215 and the youngest (four months younger than Howell). Buckner is currently in Burlington with Matt Campbell. Buckner's forte is control as evidenced by his 2004 Idaho Falls' numbers of just 4 walks and 37 strikeouts in 30 innings of work. This year in Burlington, Buckner has a 4.08 ERA over 46 1/3 innings. Again, 46 strikeouts to just 13 walks, but he has allowed 55 hits. He strikes me as a 'grinder', someone who will work his way up the ladder steadily and would project out as a middle to end rotation guy. Barring something unforeseen, we're at least a two to three years away from seeing Buckner with the big club.

ERIK CORDIER, RHP- The Royals returned to their roots and just HAD to draft a high school pitcher with their second pick in the second round (I think Allard Baird gets a rash if he goes more than a round without drafting a high school arm with 'upside'). Just nineteen years old and staning 6'3" and 195lbs, Cordier pitched in the Arizona rookie league last year and compiled less than resplendent numbers: 35 innings pitched, 38 hits, 22 strikeouts, 21 walks and a 5.19 ERA. Pretty much what you would expect from a high school pitcher. I suspect he will be part of the Idaho Falls team this summer (their season does not begin until June 26th), but the Royals are just starting to announce the roster for this squad so we do not know for sure. FYI: We do know that Enrigue Barrera, the 5th round pick of 2004 and a right handed pitcher will be part of the Idaho Falls staff.

Quite obviously, the jury is still out on the 2004 draft and will be for another five years. It is highly likely that Howell and Butler will be making impacts sooner rather than later and just as likely that someone picked in round 25 will be knocking on the big league door before some of the guys named above. I do not really have a 'feel' for what is reasonable to expect from a draft class, but I would think a regular postion player and a front line starter for your big league club three seasons after you draft is a good start.

Impatient or Too Patient

2005-05-25T05:35:00.000-07:00

Just a quick note today, more later.

Although the Royals did hit the ball pretty well last night, the results were still another one run loss. Kansas City was particularly inept at advancing and scoring the many baserunners they had. In watching the game, I thought our hitters looked somewhat 'out of sync' - which is a little odd considering they rapped out 10 hits, but in checking the numbers, things were different.

In general under Bob Schaefer, the Royals have swung at the first pitch of an at-bat roughly 32-34% of the time. Last night, they swung at 17 out of 38 first pitches, 44.7%. Further, the Royals had been taking a first strike looking on the rest of their at-bats in the low 40% range, compared with around 60% under the Pena/Baird work the count approach to no offense. Last night, the Royals took 13 strikes looking - 62% of the at-bats in which they did not swing early. Bottom line, Kansas City hitters were working behind in the count at much higher rate than usual.

Off-day Rumblings

2005-05-24T07:48:00.000-07:00

The Mike Sweeney trade rumors are beginning to get life again. As many of you know, I have gone from trade him-trade him now-I don't care for who, to don't trade him-we need his offense-we need it next year. I base this on the fact that even at $11 million a year, we can afford to keep Sweeney AND add payroll and more importantly because the Royals would be so much more potent to ADD a corner outfielder than to TRADE Sweeney for one.

However, I have a hunch that the conventional wisdom will take precedent and Sweeney is on the block. The one team I have heard mentioned (most of the buzz is generic 'the Royals will and can move Sweeney' with no options stated) is the Angels of wherever it is they are now saying they play.

So, if the Angels were to be a trading partner, what do they have to offer? They just brought up their prize pitching prospect: Ervin Santana, but I doubt he is available and given the number of young arms the Royals already are cultivating, I do not know that you really want to or need to add another youngster into the mix. Looking at their position players, the one major league player that fits the Royal profile (young, right handed, power hitting corner outfielder) is Juan Rivera, whom the Angels got via Montreal/Washington in the off-season. Rivera is a 6'2", 205 pound, 26 year old who in 391 at-bats with Montreal last year clubbed 12 homers and posted the following batting numbers: .307/.364/.465/.829. I'd take Rivera, but we would have to get more. How desparate are the Angels? Probably not desperate enough to part with Casey Kotchman, their first baseman at AAA Salt Lake City. The Angels have a trio of 26 year old outfielders in AAA, Nick Gorneault among them (.310/.355/.566), but Kotchman is THE prospect. Anyway, it will probably become more apparent as the weeks go by and the Angels level of interest is most likely somewhat dependent on the seriousness or non-seriousness of Vladmir Guerroro's shoulder injury.

Other notes today:

Jeremy Affeldt is set to pitch for Omaha this week. I think the Royals have really ticked Jeremy off by being so cautious with this injury, which is good. Affeldt NEEDS to get ticked off and stay ticked off - every power closer in the world spends most of their days angry (or should anyway). The progression of the current group of youngsters in the bullpen, coupled with Affeldt's performances over the next month, will have a great deal of bearing on Royal trade plans.

An article on one of the minor league sites today regarding two players from Hawaii currently playing for the Royals' High A club at High Desert: Jason Kaanoi and Micah Kaaihue. If you are interested here is the link:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050518&content_id=6947&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

Speaking of our bullpen, now is the time for Andy Sisco to make HIS adjusments and start being effective again. As is often said, baseball is all about adjustments: the league adjusted to Sisco, not it's his turn. I will be curious, now that scouts have had a couple of looks at Leo Nunez, to see if he remains dominant over the next few weeks.

And finally, put me in the camp of Terry Collins as the Royal's next manager, if only because of this quote in the Kansas City Star this morning:

“I care about how the game is played. I want it done correctly. I don't accept stupid plays. And if you do them, you'll hear about it, and then I'll try to teach you what went wrong.”

It's All Mental

2005-05-23T12:31:00.000-07:00

Hitting that is...it has to be mental. You really cannot explain the Royals' newfound ability to score runs any other way. Under Pena this year, the mantra was work the count, sacrifice, manufacture runs and Kansas City struggled mightily. In Pena's last seven games, they scored three runs or less SIX times.

Voila! Bob Schaefer says be aggressive, play for the big inning and in his first 11 games the Royals have failed to score more than three runs only ONCE. Mired well to the bottom of the American League in virtually every category (every good category anyway), Kansas City is slowly creeping upwards. Although still 13th in slugging and average, the Royals are up to 11th in both on-base percentage and OPS. More importantly, they are now 11th in runs scored, but just 4 runs shy of being ninth. The two teams that were run challenged at the same level of despair as the Royals just two weeks ago (Cleveland & Oakland) are now 20+ runs behind Kansas City.

You could say that this is simply a matter of the Royals happening to get hot and that may very well be true. However, as we have examined, Schaefer's new approach at the plate had led to the Royals (despite swinging at first pitches at virtually the same rate as Pena's team) to not taking such a high percentage of first strikes looking. Does just the talk of the Royals being more aggressive lead to opposing pitchers throwing balls out of the zone on the first pitch? Does a more aggressive mindset at the plate actually lead to better strike zone judgment?

I don't really know and truthfully 11 games out of a baseball season is not enough to tell much of anything, but over the last seven days, Kansas City has hit .277 as a team, with an on-base percentage of .341, slugging of .427 and an OPS of .768. A month of that kind of hitting will get this team some wins and these fans some hope.

Missed Opportunities Once More

2005-05-22T08:41:00.000-07:00

Let's not fool ourselves, the Cardinals are a good baseball team, even without Scott Rolen. Still, after two consecutive one run losses (making it 12 so far this year), Royals fans have to be lamenting missed opportunities to have a 2-0 lead in this series.

Friday night was particularly annoying to this writer simply because two veteran players were the culprits. In the bottom of the first, Tony Graffanino hit an odd little backspinning bouncer out towards second that forced Berroa. That was not what drew my ire, it was that Tony apparently stopped to buy a donut on his way to first base. Graff has often been described as a hard-nosed, hustling competitor, but this year (and it may be because his precense in the lineup over younger players with more potential just angers me to begin with) it appears that he will take a play off now and then. Perhaps worse, was Eli Marrero's at-bat to end the first inning (with two on and two out, despite the double play). Eli swung at two pitches that Angel Berroa probably would have laid off of - pretty much as if he had already decided that the twilight and Mark Mulder was just too much.

In the 5th inning on Friday night came the play that everyone was talking about. Bases loaded, no outs, Graffanino on 3rd base and a wild pitch, one that I think he has a 80% chance of scoring on. You know, that is Mark Mulder out there and we are the Royals, you have to take risks. I do NOT think it was a smart baseball play to avoid making the first out at home. Worst case, Graffanino's out, the runners move up and Eli Marrero's subsequent double play ball (another nice at-bat, Eli, thanks) instead is a run scoring groundball, runner on third and just one out.

Bottom line, that's four plays in a one run loss. A different outcome on just one of the four makes this a different game. Plays that continue to add to my theory that the Royals' problem is not being too young, but is instead that our 'veteran players' are not very good.

Moving onto Saturday night, Emil Brown made easily one of the most awkward defensive plays of the last five years in boxing around the ball in the right field corner that led to two runs in the top of the 5th inning. I am not sure Ken Harvey could have been that bad...well, maybe, but you get the point. Brown is not a gifted outfielder, but has at least been hitting some lately and players are not perfect, but all he had to do was not fall on his ass (fielding the ball cleanly would have been nicer, but I don't want to be greedy) and the Cardinals score one less run in that inning. ONE LESS RUN, hmmm, that was the difference in the game come to think of it.

Another missed opportunity game in the bottom of the same inning, after the Royals had scored two runs (okay, so maybe I am greedy), when both Mike Sweeney and Matt Stairs struck out with runners on 1st and 3rd. Now, it is hard to be too mad about those two guys, as they are two veterans how have been performing well for a bad team, but still you would like to think Sweeney gets a ball in the air somewhere to score ONE RUN...argghhh, there's that phrase again - one run.

Today we have Ryan Jensen going - hey, it could be good or horrific. No word on the roster move, I suspect either it will be Harvey to the DL (about two weeks too late), McEwing waived or Matt Diaz shanked around once more and sent to Omaha.

High Minors Update

2005-05-20T06:45:00.000-07:00

Not to be confused with a High Desert update.

When one really starts to analyze the situation, there is no great mystery as to who the Royals will call up to start the game. Here is the starting rotation in Omaha:

Ryan Jensen 4.30 ERA, 46 innings, 28 strikeouts, 16 walks
Chris George 5.31 ERA, 42 innings
Danny Tamayo 4.68 ERA, 42 innings
Jimmy Gobble 8.80 ERA, 29 2/3 innings
Dennis Tankersley 7.52 ERA, 26 1/3 innings

The above explains why Omaha is just 18-24 this year and also why we should expect Ryan Jensen to take the hill for KC on Sunday. Given that there will be a big crowd and the Cardinals can swing it a little, having a guy who has a fair amount of major league experience (and some success actually) is certainly preferable to say...well, Eduardo Villacis.

On the hitting side in Omaha, Aaron Guiel has gotten hot lately and raised his average to .291 with a .383 on base percentage and is slugging at .595 clip. Guiel, who can become a free agent on June 1, has 9 homers and 19 walks. Chad Santos, who was hot early, has gone in the opposite direction and is down to .264/.349/.535, roughly the numbers he compiled in Wichita last year. Big Cal Pickering is playing again and has registered 6 hits in 51 at-bats (2 homers). Pick has walked 12 times and struck out 24 times.

Anybody wonder why Justin Huber is still in Wichita? I sure have, but I am pretty sure the answer may reside in the SEVEN errors he has at first base. The Royals, correctly so, do not want to turn a young player into a designated hitter only this early in his career and my guess is as soon as Huber shows he can be average at this position he will be on the move upwards. Currently hitting .367/.472/.599 with 28 walks, 6 homer runs and three steals, Huber does not have to be great in the field, just better than Calvin Pickering.

Josh Pressley was hitting .325 with a .423 on-base percentage for the Wrangler before being suspended for violating the substance abuse policy. On the positive side, however, Cory Aldridge a left-handed hitting, 25 year old outfielder, has 10 home runs for Wichita while hitting .294. He has 36 strikeouts and 10 walks, which accounts for a very average .331 on-base percentage.

Pitching news of note from down south centers on a 'non-prospect' and two former number one draft picks. Kyle Middleton, despite a bad outing last night, has a 3.16 ERA in 57 innings of work and a good 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio. He has been pretty much off the radar prospect wise, but given the lack of starters above him, that may change if Kyle can keep posting numbers like this. Mike Stodolka is also starting in Wichita and has a 4.23 ERA in 38 innings of work. The former first rounder has just 16 strikeouts and 10 walks. And how about Colt Griffin? Well, decent 3.51 ERA in 16 relief appearances, but....21 walks in 25 innings with 15 strikeouts.

We will take a look at the A-ball teams next week, but for now, outside of an emergency callup for Sunday's start, I do not expect much to happen movement wise in the organization over the next couple of weeks. Donnie Murphy is still hurt for Wichita (hitting .304 before his injury), Huber is not being rushed (if only he was a pitcher - he'd be in KC right now) and my guess is the Royals think they can keep Guiel after June 1.

Wouldn't it be nice for Greinke to shutout the Cardinals tonight?

A Little Criticism Never Hurt

2005-05-19T13:46:00.000-07:00

Less than six hours after I basically trash the Royals bullpen and specifically Mike MacDougal, look what happens. Not only did they hold the lead (special commendation to Bob Schaefer for having the courage to yank Runelvys early - 6 walks, what was that?), but they absolutely dominated a very good offensive baseball team.

5 2/3 innings, 1 hit, no walks AND 7 strikeouts!

Mike MacDougal comes in and strikes out the side on 11 pitches. It may all be a tease, but one can always hope.

I am not sure what to make of Leo Nunez. He may very well just be so new and unknown that other teams do not have any sort of read on him - much like Andy Sisco early in the year, but the kid throws strikes and throws them pretty hard. Time will tell in regard to Nunez, but it is a nice start for the youngster.

The Impossibility of Holding a Lead

2005-05-19T06:32:00.000-07:00

We split the atom, went to the moon and created the internet. Somewhere, there has to be someone who can figure out how to get the Royals to hold a lead. Alas....

Seriously though, I though D.J. Carrasco battled and did about all you can ask of a fill-in for your number five starter: keep you in the game. His future is not as a starter, in my opinion, but he has shown enough in his two starts to give us some confidence that he could be a competent middle reliever for the bullpen.

Ah, the bullpen. I have become someone fixated on it only because I think there is hope to at least making it better. You can't make Jose Lima 25 again, you can't accelerate Denny Bautista two more years into his career, and you can't turn D.J. Carrasco into Brad Radke. What you can do, is assemble a consistent core of relievers to take the pressure off your lesser starters.

Bullpen by committee, closer by committee, by its very nature has a disorganized feel to it and that is not necessarily bad. A little over a week ago, I advocated going to just such an approach, simply to find out who can pitch and who can't. Whether he is finding out for himself or for the next 'real' manager, Schaefer has taken the right approach in putting different guys in different situations. Can you use this approach for an entire season? My answer is no, not unless you suddenly have the reincarnation of Dibble, Myers and Charlton circa 1990.

So, where are we headed? First, Mike Wood has pretty much proven that he can be an above-average middle reliever. He is not a closer, not full time anyway, as he just doesn't have that kind of explosive stuff, but he can pretty much fill any role you want. There has been some talk of moving Wood into the rotation (mostly amongst us fans), but I think that is a mistake. At best, he could be a serviceable back of the rotation guy, while as a reliever he can be really good.

Although the sample size is very small (just 2 starts), I think D.J. Carrasco could fill a similar role as Wood. I think he was starting out of necessity in Omaha and he is certainly starting for KC out of necessity. Again, he could be servicable, but in the bullpen he could be above average.

Andy Sisco is beginning to look less like Mariano Rivera and more like a Rule V guy. He is still okay, but probably needs to be kicked back to his early season role: a long reliever, garbage innings, etc. He has not thrived, actually he's struggled, in pressure situations. He will get a lot of work for the Royals as a long reliever and that is what he needs: simply to pitch and pitch a lot. Like most people, you have to think he is a starter down the road. Hell, I would be tempted to start him Sunday just out of curiosity.

Okay, so in my world and once everyone gets healthy, we have Sisco has the long man with Wood and Carrasco as my middle relievers. That is a decent base. After that we have questions marks.

At least until Affeldt comes back, you have to keep throwing Burgos out there. Perhaps the light will come on and he establishes himself in the next few weeks. If not, once Affeldt is up to speed, you send the kid to Omaha and let him dominate for a few more months. THEN, he may actually be ready. At this point, and it is a stretch, you have to count on Affeldt to come back and be the closer. I do not see any other viable option. Besides you have to a) prove he's healthy, b) find out if he really can be a dominant closer and c) showcase him as trade bait.

That leaves us with a whole bunch of guys with potential and a mountain of questions. You would hope Snyder will get healthy and revert to spring training form. That gives you a third middle reliever and allows you to push Wood into more of a pure setup role. Cerda is not good, but he is also not bad, and at times can get you a couple of really good innings. I would like to see the Royals actually use Cerda as a lefty specialist only as, over the past three years lefthanders have hit just .223 against him, while righties are hitting .266.

I have nothing left to say about Mike MacDougal. He has worn out my patience and hope at least four different times in the last two and half seasons. If he has any value, trade him now and end our misery. I don't know how it is possible that someone with that kind of stuff can be so totally lacking in self-confidence, but I no longer care.

So, that leaves us (again once healthy), with a bullpen of Sisco, Carrasco, Snyder, Cerda, Wood and Affeldt, with Burgos in the wings. I may be optimistic (as I was with the bullpen we started the season with), but I would be willing to slot these six into the roles defined above and run them out there for a couple of months. Frankly, they could not do any worse.

A Quick Post on DeJesus

2005-05-18T10:14:00.000-07:00

Not much talk about the foot bruise that kept David DeJesus out of the lineup last night. A blurb on the Royals site indicated it was something 'he woke up with' and was caused by David compensating for the bruise he suffered in late April.

To me, not knowing anything more than that, it sounds like a trip to the disabled list might be in the works. If one foot is hurt and then the other gets hurt to compensate, I don't know how you get over that problem without simply resting. If that turns out to be the case, there goes our second best player.

My opinion is this would open up a spot for Aaron Guiel, who the Royals have to do something with by June 1st or he can become a free agent. Obviously, I'd rather have a healthy DeJesus, but it would allow us to keep Guiel in the fold - what with Terrance Long hitting all of 215. Just speculating....

Ughh

2005-05-18T06:38:00.000-07:00

Are we sure that's not Chris George in a Jose Lima custume out there? Maybe that's a bit harsh, after all Chris George won 9 games in 2003, mainly because he could usually (barely) protect 6 run leads. I was being patient with Lima, thinking that as we got into the season he would establish some consistency, but at this point I have seen enough. Unfortuneately, with Bautista and Anderson both on the the DL, there is no ability to make a move with regard to Lima. Not that the Royals would make such a drastic move, but they won't even consider it right now.

Speaking of seeing too much, Mike MacDougal has driven me insane for the last time. I do not care how many good outings he strings together, I will not ever once count on him again. I have no burning desire to see much more of Jaime Cerda, either, but somebody had to be in the bullpen. Apparenty, 12-8 losses make me bitter. There are no great solutions to the bullpen other than to reconcile ourselves to the fact that we don't have, nor will we have, a 'shut down' pen. Getting Affeldt and Snyder back will at least provide some more options.

First pitch studies continued:
I went back in time and compiled my first pitch numbers on Tony Pena's last six games (210 batters total). What I found is that under Pena, the Royals swung at the first pitch 31.0% of the time and on the remaining at-bats, looked at strike one 60.7% of the time.

In the first six games under Bob Schaefer (207 batters) and his new 'aggressive' approach at the plate, we find the Royals are swinging at the first pitch slightly more: 32.9% of the time. Here's the big difference, and probably a good reason as to why the Royals have been somewhat more potent at the plate. Of the batters that did not swing at the first pitch, only 43.2% looked at strike one - basically 28 at-bats. In essence, 28 batters who started out behind in the count under Pena are starting out ahead in the count under Schaefer. All that without swinging at the first pitch at an appreciably higher level.

I have had little to quibble about Schaefer's lineups so far, partially because he has had very little wiggle room with all the injuries. I was, however, disappointed that Matt Diaz did not get a start last night. I do not see the point in playing Marrero, Long AND Graffanino, three guys who we know what they are, at the expense of a player like Diaz who we need to find out about.

By the way, Ken Harvey had not played for a WEEK now, what would have been the harm in putting him on the 15 day disabled list and getting Schaefer another stick to play with? Even if he was 'not hurt that bad', we would really only forfeit maybe 6 or 7 days of his availabilty....and it is Ken Harvey after all.

Alex Gordon

2005-05-17T06:55:00.000-07:00

With speculation heating up on the upcoming amateur draft, in which the Royals have the second overall pick, I though I would offer up some information on a player who is easily one of the top five prospects available and who happens to play in my town.

Alex Gordon is a 6'1", 215 pound junior third baseman, born and raised in Lincoln, Nebraska who has started 170 of 174 games since arriving on campus as a freshman. He is a career .342 hitter with a .401 average with runners in scoring position. Here's a quick look at his career stats (Batting Ave/On-base Pct/Slugging Pct):

2003 - 319/425/495 - 7 home runs, 29 walks in 62 games.
2004 - 355/493/754 - 18 home runs, 47 walks, 12 stolen bases in 59 games.
2005 - 388/548/732 - 15 home runs, 52 walks, 20 stolen bases in 53 games (so far).

In 2004, Gordon was the Big 12 player of the year, and appears poised to be only the second position player to earn that award twice. There is really good baseball in the Big 12, so I think this conference gives good players an solid base from which to go into the professional ranks. In Big 12 play, Alex hit .299 in 2003, .297 in 2004 and this year is hitting a whopping .380 in conference games with a .574 on-base percentage and a .684 sluggling percentage. Nearly 40 percent of the runs he has driven in have occurred via two-out hits and he has quite frankly been the best player on three very good baseball teams in his team here at the University of Nebraska.

Gordon also played on TEAM USA last summer and hit .388 with four homers in 24 games. He was named the top offensive player at the FISU World University Baseball Championships where he went 11-21 in 8 contests.

Although he has improved defensively at third base, that is certainly not the strong point of Gordon's game. As a freshman Alex committed 11 errors for a .919 fielding percentage. In both 2004 and 2005 his fielding percentage (take that statistic for what it's worth) has been .935, with 12 errors in 2004 and 11 more in 2005. Gordon played first base for TEAM USA last summer. Gordon is a good athelete with a solid work eithic and could probably make himself into an average defensive major league third basemen.

The question becomes, should the Royals draft Gordon, what position do you put him at? Darrin Erstad was a number one overall pick out of Nebraska in 1995 as a junior, basically at the same developmental level as Gordon, and he played 114 games in A and AAA before reaching the majors (one and one-half seasons). Putting Gordon on a similar track that would put him in Kansas City by NEXT summer or spring of 2007 at the latest. You have Teahen at third, who is showing signs of being absolutely marvelous with the glove and who you hope will be a solid .290 hitter with a load of doubles by next year. We're projecting Huber as our first baseman sooner rather than later and you've got to play Billy Butler by 2007 also (probably at DH).

So...can you play Gordon in the outfield? I have heard nothing on this matter and Nebraska is making a run at the College World Series (they are currently ranked 5th in the country), so they're not about to start shifting guys around just out of curiosity. My guess, given Gordon's athleticism and work ethic is that you could turn him into a left fielder. Purely speculation on my part, but not without some merit.

Now, will the Royals draft him, given that he will probably want a pretty decent signing bonus. My hope is that they will, or at least sign someone who warrants the number 2 pick. There has been speculation that Kansas City will make a 'budget pick' and that is an absolute waste of such a high pick. If you're down below 10th in the draft, then I think signability and money are legitimate factors. When you are this high in the draft, then you have to bite the bullet, draft and pay for the talent.

A good point was made on the KC Star discussion board with regard to the large number of 1st and 2nd round picks the Royals had last year and what they spent (something over $5 million) to sign five players. This year, KC has just one first rounder and one second rounder and logically could afford to pay a big bonus ($4.5 million has been bandied about, I think mostly from the Upton camp, but it has been assumed that Gordon will want the same). If you can draft a guy that could help your offense as early as mid 2006 or 2007, you have to do it. You have to even if you know he has a difficult agent (I have not heard who or if Gordon has an agent yet) and even if you know that after 6 years in the majors you have no chance of keeping him (ala Carlos Beltran). That is the nature of the beast, some guys you can hold onto to, some guys you can't get rid of, and some guys you just have to use and enjoy while you have them.

The Royals made money last year, they will make money this year. Do not be cheap this year, Mr. Glass, open the checkbook and pay the bonus for a legitimate prospect. You might be amazed what happens in the coming years.

A Good Weekend, for a change

2005-05-16T07:00:00.000-07:00

I don't care if it was just Tampa Bay, three out of four is three out of four. Just five games back of the Indians. Hey, you have to start somewhere.

Let's take a quick look at my pet project before I get into our bullpen. Yesterday, in scoring 4 runs, the Royals swung at the first pitch 9 times (29.0%) and of the remaing at-bats took called first strikes 32.3% of the time. Now, four runs is not exactly an offensive explosion, but those numbers continue a mini-trend under Bob Schaefer of swinging at the first pitch less and taking first pitch strikes less.

Now, about the bullpen, that was good, bad, effective and ineffective in this series. I am moderately frightened when Mike MacDougal was the steadiest of performers this weekend, but good for him. I continue to believe that mentally he just does not have 'it' when it comes to closing games, although a couple of more outings like this weekend and he will get another shot.

Statistically, Andy Sisco is still the dominant pitcher in the pen, but he has struggled with control and with the league getting a 'book' on him. Despite recent control problems, Sisco's WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched) is still a decent 1.21. Opponets are batting just .167 against him with a paltry .490 OPS. Five of twelve inherited runners have scored against Sisco, but for a young guy who should be in AA, that's not too bad, either. Probably a shift of roles between Sisco and MacDougal might be in order if Mac continues to pitch well and Sisco does not get back to his early season effectiveness. Starter or reliever, two years from now Andy Sisco will be very, very good.

Mike Wood has sort of stumbled into two saves in two consecutive games, but two saves is still two saves. He's got less talent than anybody on the staff, save Lima probably, but Wood competes and I have always thought he had a decent idea of how to pitch. Early on, Mike has a good 1.20 WHIP and has held opponets to a .208 batting average. At 6.23 strikeouts per 9 innings, he pales in comparison to Sisco (11.69), Burgos (11.42) and MacDougal (9.17) when it comes to 'sizzle factor', but Wood is a good solid guy - probably a middle reliever for the Royals for seasons to come.

MacDougal has actually allowed only 3 of 11 inherited runners to score. Sure opponets have an OPS of .730 and his WHIP is 1.64 and until this weekend, Mike had pretty much disentegrated in every crucial situation he had been placed in, but hope springs eternal for guys who throw 95+ with nasty sliders.

Jaime Cerda had pitched better as of late as well. Opponets are hitting .250 against him with a .748 OPS. His WHIO is 1.70, not good, but Cerda strikes batter out at a rate of 8.03 per 9 innings, not bad. It is pretty much all about control with Cerda as it seems he seldom gets hit hard when he throws strikes. Too often, however, Jaime struggles with his control and then very bad things happen that make me swear at my TV.

Speaking of swearing, Ambiorix Burgos is quite the enigma, isn't he? This guy flat out has some of the nastiest, hardest stuff I have ever seen and he clearly, quite clearly, is NOT ready. Sure, he will strike out 11.42 batters per 9 innings and he has allowed just 1 of 6 inherited runners to score, but his WHIP is 1.73 and opponets have managed to hit .294 against him with an .872 OPS (anybody out there that would not trade for an outfielder who hit .294 with an .872 OPS?). Burgos will be our closer, probably as early as next year, but he really needs more seasoning in the minors (along with about 10 other guys, but that's for another day). At times, he has suffered from bad luck (bloop hits, etc.), but at times he has simply looked like a 21 year old with a great arm and very marginal idea of how to use it.

For now, like Bob Schaefer, I think you grit your teeth and put in whomever might be hot. Perhaps the lack of defined roles will take a little pressure off of everyone and allow them to just pitch. Chances are, in two weeks, we'll be right back to the start of the season plan: MacDougal setting up for Affeldt. If they both perform well in those slots for six weeks, I would trade them both for offense. We have the bullpen of the future in the system (Sisco, Burgos, Nunez) we just should not be thinking the future is now.

First Pitches Continued

2005-05-15T09:30:00.000-07:00

A busy weekend around here with graduations, etc., so just a quick add-on to Friday's unscientific look at what the Royals are doing with the first pitch of each at bat.

To review, in Pena's last two games, the Royals swung at the first pitch 37.4% of the time. When they did not swing, KC looked at strike one 52.4% of the time. In Schaefer's first two games, the Royals swung 30.1% of the time at that first pitch and took strike one on 43.1% of those pitches on which they did not swing.

So, Friday night, in scoring just 2 runs and registering just 4 hits, Kansas City hitters swung at the first pitch at a slightly higher rate of 35.3%. They took strike one looking on 40.9% of those remaining at-bats.

Saturday night, in a nice 6 run output, the Royals swung at the first pitch 30.6% of the time and took strike one looking just 36.0% of the time.

Once again, this is very scientific and the results could be effected by a number of variables. However, over the last six games, when the Royals have kept the first pitch swinging right around 30%, they have scored runs. When that percentage has crept up over 35% (and usually higher), they have scored four runs total in three games. Coincidence? Quite possibly, but something that has me curious enough to keep tracking.

Quick notes:
That is the Runelvys Hernandez we can probably expect: a grinder who will get you innings and keep you in the game, but who will need runs to get wins. He is probably the 'innings eater' that Allard Baird though Jose Lima would be.

How would you like to be Bob Schaefer, knowing that you probably get to manage the Royals for about 10 days, and have virtually no flexibility with the lineup because of nagging injuries? It has given Emil Brown a chance to get his bat started and he all of a sudden looks like a player that can help us score runs.

Sisco and Wood were hardly resplendent last night, but Sisco got credit for a hold and Wood the save. Such is the life of a major league bullpen. One night you are perfect for all but one pitch and lose, the next you pretty much are bad and still save the game.

Here's hoping Matt Diaz gets hot from the first at-bat this time up and takes hold of an everyday spot for a while. If Diaz could hit even 75% of what he was doing in Omaha and Emil Brown continues to heat up, all of a sudden our outfield does not look quite so impotent.

Bob Schaefer - Baseball Genius

2005-05-13T10:24:00.000-07:00

Okay, not really.

We all wish it was that easy: change managers, go from scoring 2 runs in two games to 16 runs in the next two games. Teams would be chaning managers every other week. The number of variables that can cause such a dramatic offensive turnaround/blip/anomaly are almost too numerous to mention. Did the managerial switch just get guys more focused? Is the new batting order the reason? Did Emil Brown just need to play everyday? Is it bad pitching? Is it just one of those 'baseball things'? The list goes on and on, and it frankly may just be a case of the team getting hot, as all teams, good and bad, do.

One thing mentioned is that Schaefer did say he wanted the Royals to be more agressive at the plate. So I did a VERY unscientific review of Tony Pena's last two games and Bob Schaefer's first two games (yes, I know, two games in baseball is pretty much like predicting a presidential election by asking the first three people I see on the street). The focus of my review was what Royal hitters did on the first pitch of each at-bat, because it felt like the Royals were being more agressive the past two games.

In Pena's last two games, KC sent 67 batters to the plate and they swung at the first pitch 25 times (37.3%). Of the remaining 42 batters who did not swing at the first pitch, 22 strikes were taken (52.4%). Overall, the Royals averaged 3.34 pitches per at-bat in this two game sample.

Now, in Schaefer's first two games, the Royals sent 73 batters to the plate and they swung at the first pitch 22 times (30.1%). The remaining 51 batters took 22 first pitch strikes (43.1%). Here, the Royals have averaged 4.51 pitches per at-bat.

So, in the last two games, the Royals have swung at the first pitch less and looked at strikes (i.e. good pitches) less: in effect, been more patient. These numbers are no doubt affected by the less than stellar pitching facing the Royals the last two games, but still it is moderately intriguing.

Did the constant preaching of being patient and working the count under Pena actually lead to the Royals swinging more and taking more good pitches? Does Schaefer's 'aggressive' approach actually lead to a better judging of when to swing and when not to? A four game sample is hardly enough to answer that question and it is just a likely that KC will revert to swinging early and taking strikes, but it will be an interesting stat to watch.

So, You're the Manager of the Royals...Now What?

2005-05-12T12:36:00.000-07:00

Your dream just came true and Allard Baird had tapped you as the captain of this sinking vessel known as the Royals. The GM has even allowed you a say in player personnel moves. So, now what do you do?

First off, there's trade talk about, but let's hold off on that. First, two of the tradeable 'commodities' are hurt, Anderson and Affeldt. Second, the value of your other two realistic tradees, Sweeney & Stairs, will probably go up as teams find themselves in the thick of the fight in mid-July. Besides, you HAVE to score SOME runs in the interim.

Now, what about this crew in the majors? If there is a 'sense of entitlement and comfort' in the clubhouse, as has been reported by some - then you need to identify the group of players who feel this way, pick the one everyone likes the most, and send him down. Okay, you've sent your message, now what?

You've got Sweeney and DeJesus to play everyday and Stairs to play against the righties. The organization is committed to Buck behind the plate and Teahen at third - fine, throw them out there and find out who can play. For now, you're stuck with Berroa and Gotay up the middle (quit this Graffanino/McEwing crap) because both Andres Blanco and Donnie Murphy, the only viable options in the system, are hurt. If it takes Berroa hitting lead-off to stay interesteed, that's fine - DeJesus is a better number two hitter anyway. Let Gotay bat ninth and see if he can figure this out. When Murphy/Blanco get healthy, then you can start thinking about moves there.

Now, though, you've got Harvey and Long and Marrero and Brown and you're stomach is starting to turn because none of these guys is giving you much of a warm fuzzy. Maybe Brown can hit, probably not, but while you're trying to get your feet on the ground you throw him out on the field because you might as well catch that lightning in a bottle that Allard told you about.

Okay, but what is there in the system to help? You've got Matt Diaz hitting 382 in Omaha with a 447 OBP and a salty 724 slugging percentage. Yeah, he was less than impressive earlier in the year in KC, but it was not much of a chance. Aaron Guiel is down there, too, hitting 274 but getting on base at a 365 clip. He's a stopgap at best, too, but maybe you could use those walks and he's been here before. So there's a couple of options in the outfield. What about Chad Santos? Well, he's cooled off to just hitting 255. Big Pick? He's an unenthused 1-21 in Omaha with 10 strikeouts.

So you look to Wichita. Yeah, you wanted to call up Murphy, his gold glove and his 304 batting average, but he's hurt. Aviles, the shortstop, is having a nice run, but he's not ready. Allard told you not to say it, but you do anyway: Justin Huber. Good lord, he's hitting .393 and has 26 freaking walks! No, he still get's confused about which base is first, but can't we teach him that in winter ball? Yes, that's who you want a DH and you want him there now. There are other guys down there, too: Matt Tupman the catcher, Josh Pressley, Shane Costa...maybe next year.

Farther down you go, to High Desert where everyone is hitting the cover off the ball. Billy Butler is hittin .333 with a .421 obp and 12 errors. You can see him in left field....maybe even next year. Mitch Maier (.328/.372) is there so is Lubanski (starting to get hot) and Kaaihue, but you don't even dare mention them to Baird. Although you once more talk about bringing Huber in to KC to DH and let Butler DH in Wichita, just to see what kind of hitter the kid can be.

So, you've pulled Huber in to DH and called up an outfielder/maybe two from Omaha to play. You're not going to become a juggernaut on offense, but maybe you can get some runs for Greinke now and then.

Oh, pitching, what about that pitching? Greinke is good, Hernandez will battle, Bautista will drive you nuts and Lima will scare the hell out of you, but there are worse rotations in the league. Anderson is hurt and Wood is actually somewhat reliable (for this team) out of the pen, so the organization is bringing in D.J. Carrasco to start...interesting. Of course, you don't want Chris George or Ryan Jensen or Dennis Tankersley...maybe Carrasco gives you some decent 5 inning starts and when Anderson comes back you then have another piece of the puzzle in the bullpen.

The bullpen, ugh. Burgos has a golden arm, but he's not ready....not ready to dominate like he will for you in 2006. Put him in Omaha, let him get settled down. Same with Nunez, maybe you put him in Wichita, doesn't matter. They are both up here too soon. Patience you tell yourselft as Burgos hit 100 on the radar gun. You almost have to wait for Affeldt to come back before you can send out Burgos, maybe by then.... You have to keep Sisco up, but he's faltering in a setup role. Mix it up a little...mop up, set up, close...doesn't matter with this team. Wood, Snyder, Sisco, use them interchangeably. Takes the pressure off everyone, just pitch guys - stop thinking so much. Cerda and MacDougal are out there too, and a shiver goes up your spine.

Anything in the minors? Justin Huismann has a 2.33 ERA in Omaha, but 9 walks and 9 strikeouts. Byron Embry was in the Northern League last year, but isn't horrible, especially if you ignore one disasterous outing. Field and Camp....no, don't even say it. Santiago Ramirez had 7 strikeouts and zero walks, but 11 hits in under 7 innings. Steve Stemle is nobody, but he has not given up an earned run in 12 innings. Wichita...no, High Desert...no.

So, you send down Burgos and Nunez and bring up Embry and Stemle. If they don't work, you bring in Ramirez and one of your previous rejects. You hope Affeldt comes back and pitches well and maybe you don't wait all the way to 2006 to bring Burgos back, but you give him a couple of months. You find out what Tony Pena already should have known....ride your starters as long as you can and hope you can pick the hot hand out of the pen when you absolutely have to and not a moment before.

By the way, don't look at the standings for a couple of months, it will be bad for your ego.

Sensory Overload

2005-05-12T07:47:00.000-07:00

A blown lead, a new lineup, a managerial search, Wood staying in the bullpen.....too much for this feeble mind to digest and not enough time for anything reasonable anyway.

One thought for the day, and I'll endeavour to have something better this evening:

What about keeping Schaefer as the interim manager for the rest of the season? My reasoning is that it might be easier to get a top flight manager type if he knows he gets to start fresh - with a full off-season and spring training to get 'his' team ready. Whomever takes over right now is certain to suffer another two months of not very good baseball, before their changes have any real impact, not something a lot of guys would want to take on.

Let's assume this team is going to get better as the season progress (it can't get worse, tell me it can't get worse). Actually it should, being as young as this team is. So, instead of taking over an 8-26 disaster, a new manager could take over a 60-102 team that played better as the season went on - something to build on.

Just a thought.

And I didn't know what to write about today...

2005-05-11T05:24:00.000-07:00

I was at a loss (pun intended). Another well pitched game, another pathetic offensive show, another set up mistakes, another loss for the Royals. I did not feel like, nor did anyone probably feel like reading another rant on how bad this team seems to be. The thought of breaking down some prospects or maybe options for the upcoming amateur draft drifted through my mind, but then Tony Pena actually did something I liked this year: RESIGN.

Listen, by all accounts, Pena is a good guy and someone to be respected, but he was not a good manager...he was not even average. His mistakes, his almost mysterious reasoning for strategic moves, were evident on an almost daily basis. Even in the impressive 2003 season, Pena truthfully cost us games - critical games in late July and August. All fine and good when you're delivering the first winning season since 1994. All horribly annoying when you're losing 104 games. In my opinion Tony is a good 'number two guy': a bench coach or third base coach. A perfect fit to be the buffer between players and manager. The guy the players talk to and complain to - just not the guy who makes the final decisions. The Royals say they will keep Pena in the organization (roving instructor? morale officer?).

So, now we REALLY have something to work on: who will be the manager? It is well known that the last five managers the Royals have hired all were major league novices (Pena, Muser, Boone, McRae & Wathan), who had mixed success at best. Wathan and McRae, for the most part, had winning ballclubs, but could never get over the hump. Boone was too enamored with his own intelligence to ever let the club settle down and play (remember the season that Johnny Damon batted in every slot in the batting order?). Muser never meshed and Pena, well we all know about Pena. That is not to say that a rookie manager is not out of consideration. Certainly Frank White and George Brett will get a lot of discussion thrown their way.

First off, I would be shocked if Brett took the job. I do not think he wants to work that hard or travel that much. I think he enjoys being involved with the organization, working with selected young kids, and still being able to spend time with his family. I have no idea what kind of manager Brett would be, my hunch is pretty good, but I doubt that he has a true desire to take the job.

I like Frank White. Here is a guy who made himself a player. You will remember he came up as a great defender with no bat. By the time Frank was done, he was still a great defender, but had become a dangerous hitter, also. By and large, White also played on winning teams, teams that expected to win and did the little things to make sure they did so. All of those are good signs that he could be a good manager. However, I am not sure that a) Frank has the right personality for this team at this time and b) I wonder if the Royals might be gun shy about hiring a 6th rookie manager. I really think that White would be an ideal fit for a veteran ballclub, given his personality.

The KC Star reported bounced these names out there of 'veteran' available managers: Larry Bowa, Bob Brenly, Buck Martinez and Jimy Williams. Brenly and Martinez have broadcasting gigs, which I think are probably the best and easiest jobs in baseball. I am not sure a sane person gives that up for this team. Exactly how old is Jimy Williams? Aren't he and Bobby Cox both about 124? That said, Williams is a 'baseball guy', who has had his share of success (and failure). If you brought on Williams or a guy like that, could you pair him with a Frank White as a bench coach? The idea being after a couple of years, the older manager would want out anyway and White would be ready to step in. Pure speculation on my part - it all sounds good on paper, but everyone has a personality and an ego.

Larry Bowa, the choice of Kevin Kintzman (sp?) on WHB radio, is either loved or hated. If you want fire, this is your guy. I am not against Bowa, if only because I think there are a lot of guys on this team that need a kick in the lower rear area. Plus a guy with that personality probably would be okay with a young team - a 22 year old takes be yelled out a lot better than a 34 year old whose been in the league for 10 years. That said, some 22 year olds cannot function in that environment and lose their confidence. I am not sure I care if we have young players who cannot take the heat. I know this team is too soft.

Probably the real problem with Bowa, or any other vetaran guy, is simply that they may not want to take over a ballclub that probably will be horrible most of the year. Sure, you can see some light however faint, at the end of the tunnel, but it's hard to lose 6 out of 10 for months on end.

So, where does that leave us, I have absolutely no idea. I am, however, instantly reinvigorated over the idea of having different leadership for this ballclub. Any direction Baird/Glass decide to go, will at least be a different direction that where we were headed. A better direction? Time will answer that question, but for now, different is enough.

Another Game, Another Run

2005-05-10T05:29:00.000-07:00

I don't have the energy to lament the Royal's lack of offense, once again. Or, for that matter, I have nothing to offer on Pena and his incessant babying of starting pitchers. No, this team is wearing me down. Anyway, for today, just some random notes and thoughts.

Two interesting blurbs in the KC Star this morning:
1. The Royals have not won a game all year in which they have scored less than 6 runs. That is a very bad sign for a team pretty much built to play 3-2 games.
2. Donnie Murphy hurt his ankle in Wichita and is expected to be out for 2-3 weeks. The Star reports that the Royals were about to call him up to replacing slumping Ruben Gotay. Now, I am not quite ready to give up on Gotay, but would not have been against such a move as Murphy has been hitting very well in Wichita (304/365) and is a plus defender (see I can talk just like Allard Baird). With McEwing getting the start at second last night in Toronto, it appears that Pena has seen enough of Gotay and he's not going to learn how to hit breaking balls sitting on a big league bench.

The morning show on WHB radio was kicking around the idea of trading for Ryan Howard of the Phillies. I just caugh the end of the discussion, so I have no idea how it started or where it came from, other than ESPN.com's Rumor Mill reported yesterday that the Phillies would look to move Howard before the trading deadline. Howard is a young and hits for power (actually I think the technical term is 'mashes'), but he also plays first base. A trade for him would mean that Sweeney was gone (something I am now against) and that the Royals have officially given up on Harvey and Pickering (well, I pretty much have, haven't you?). Under that scenario, you would have a 1b/DH combo of Howard and Justin Huber. HOWEVER, the Phillies would not do a Sweeney for Howard trade as they have nowhere to play Sweeney - there's a guy named Thome at first for Philadelphia, maybe you heard of him.

I know I have ranted on and on about the need for more offense in KC, but if we were to trade 'value', but not Sweeney, I would rather it be a trade for a guy that play beside Sweeney and Huber not instead of them. Plus, if we did trade Affeldt and Gobble, just names thrown out to make a sentence I have no info that those would be the guys involved, for Ryan Howard, then the rest of baseball would know we intended to move Sweeney and diminish the value we could get for him in return.

All of this conjecture assumes that Justin Huber can and will hit major league pitching - something I am pretty much taking for granted. Maybe we should bring him up and find out sooner rather than later?

2 Out Hitting (or the lack thereof)

2005-05-09T13:59:00.000-07:00

David DeJesus had a two out run scoring single in the Top of the 4th on Sunday in Baltimore. It was the only two out rbi the Royals had in a 10-8 game (albeit the balk was with 2 outs). That lack of 'clutch' hitting is not new for this team.

Including yesterday's game, Kansas City has had 127 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position. To begin with that is tied for 12th in the league with the Angels (four ahead of last place Detroit). Boston leads the league with 156 plate appearances in that situation.

The Royals have driven in 29 runs with those 127 appearances. By contrast the Angels have driven in 41 runs and Detroit, despite 4 less chances, has driven in 38. Boston, with the most opportunities have driven in 41 runs as well.

Here is a look at the batting average and on-base percentage of these four teams in a runners on/two out situation:

Boston - 181/333
Detroit - 315/398
Angels - 273/370
Royals - 231/291

First off, although Boston is hitting an extremely poor average in these pressure situations, they are also amazingly patient, as evidenced by their .333 on-base percentage. The Sox have 1.17 BB to K ratio in this circumstance. What is the Royals BB to K you ask? Try 0.34, dead last in the league and by a large margin. Tampa Bay is next to last at 0.46.

So, the problem is two fold: the Royals are not very good at getting men in scoring position and once, there, not very good at getting them in. That is certainly not news to any Royal fan who has watched Ken Harvey take third strikes and Angel Berroa swing at third strikes (just two of many culprits). Never a good 'on-base pct' team, the Royals regress to futility in pressure situations.

The solutions are many, but can truly be boiled down to either a) getting more runners on or b) getting better at hitting in clutch situations. In fact, if the Royals could become more patient at the plate and then translate that patience into better at-bats in all situations, they would actually solve both a) and b) at once.

The problem as I see it is simply that many on the current unit do not seem to have the apitude or ability to do so. Ken Harvey had turned patience into not swinging (he was struck out looking both Friday & Saturday in critical situations). Angel Berroa will never, not even once, be a patient hitter - he simply is not that kind of player. He may hit .280 with some pop, but he just won't walk.

David DeJesus does show decent plate discipline and works counts pretty well for a young player - particularly the opening at-bats of a game. So, there's hope there. Sweeney has relaxed some (funny what hitting .339 does for a guy!) and probably, along with Stairs, is a guy you don't want to be too patient as SOMEONE has to drive in runs.

Right now, despite generally good pitching, the margin for error is way to fine for the Royals. They must turn the tables some and soon to keep this season from turning from bad into a disaster. Again, you have to look first to the minors for players like Justin Huber, Matt Diaz, Aaron Guiel (he'll take a walk), maybe Pickering a platoon situation, maybe even Chad Santos. The Royals need guys to get on base, to not only take pitches, but take the RIGHT pitches (Berroa's pitches for plate appearance are not all that low, only because he's pretty good at fouling off balls out of the strike zone).

Sunday's ten run outburst was nice, but somewhat flukish, too. Certainly, nothing happened to make me think we are all of a sudden going to start scoring runs in droves. The old addage you can't score if you don't get on is, of course, obvious and true. The Royals need to score more, that's not exactly a revelation, and it starts with getting runners on base.

For the Want of a Run

2005-05-06T05:04:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's giveaway was one of those games Royals fans will not soon forget. Listening to the game on the radio, it reminded me of a slow-pitch softball game when the pitcher simply can't throw strikes...or in this case, a major league game when the pitchers simply can't throw strikes.

Zack Greinke pitched an outstanding game and, quite frankly, had earned the right to decide the game for himself. Sure, he had walked and hit a batter in the 8th and was obviously not as fine as he had been earlier, but with just 84 pitches under his belt he deserved to continue on. Part of developing is learning how to finish - something of a lost art among 21st century starter, I guess, and Pena denied what might be our future ace a valuable learning experience.

Now, I can't fault the Royal manager for bringing in Sisco. I am as much on the Sisco bandwagon as the next guy, although I wonder if maybe we should still protect the Rule Fiver a little by only putting him in games to start an inning, or at least with no one on base. The bottom line is, when you trot three pitchers out who combined aren't old enough to qualify for full social security benefits and you get a 2 run/2 hit performance, that is pretty much all you can ask.

The problem, as stated yesterday and probably 10 times before that, is that this team does not score enough runs. As recently as yesterday, I pretty much advocated staying the course, but now I am wavering. To begin with, just how effective an offensive unit will this be in 2006?

I am in the camp that says keep Sweeney, so we'll start with him at DH or first base (I've given up caring on that one). If you have not noticed, Mike Sweeney can hit the baseball. If you have read this blog much at all, you know that I have complete confidence in David DeJesus (despite his recent slump). So you can plug him in at center and hitting .290-.310 with a good on-base percentage. THEN WHAT?

Buck is a fine defensive catcher and will hit for some power, but he will never be a guy who can carry a team offensively. I am not sure he will ever hit over .260. Frankly, if he progresses from good defensively to very good or great and hits 15 homers, what John hits average wise will be the least of this team's problems. At catcher, the Royals are at best going to hold their own offensively.

Up the middle we have Berroa and Gotay or Blanco and Murphy or some combination thereof. Given the tenuous nature of young players, you really have to assume that the Royals are going to have an offensive liability at one of these positions, quite possibly two. I wish Pena would just play Gotay every day for two months so we could decide if he can hit or not, but that issue aside, at best you will have a .285 hitter with a marginal on-base percentage and some power at one spot and probably something less at the other. Pretty much we have filled out the bottom three spots in the order with Buck, the shortstop (anybody want to go back to last winter and trade Berroa for Jose Guillen?) and the second baseman. NOW, WE REALLY NEED TO FIND SOME OFFENSE.

Let us be optimistic and pencil in Mark Teahen for something above .280 and 40 doubles next year. He just looks like a hitter to me, if for no other reason than he has really sprayed the ball to all fields in his limited time with the Royals. I also think he will, in the future, register a pretty decent on-base percentage. Making that optimistic assumption, we now have Teahen, DeJesus and Sweeney hitting the ball. Where do we go from there?

Did everyone just say Justin Huber? Yes, he's learning to play first base and yes, he's only in AA Wichita - be patient I said yesterday. Screw it, bring him up now. The kid his hitting .378 and will ACTUALLY TAKE A BASE ON BALLS. Plug him into the lineup right now, give him 400 at bats so he is ready to be a middle of the order hitter starting April, 2006. I would be tempted to bat him between DeJesus and Sweeney this year, just because of his ability to walk. By 2006, he would be more of a 3 or 5 hole hitter, but let's get started right now. We might even score enough runs this year to keep our young pitchers from becoming fatalists.

That leaves us to the two corner outfield spots. Yesterday, I advocated Aaron Guiel and he's still a viable option in my book only because he is a) cheap b) knows what a base on balls actually is and looks like and c) is easily disposable once we get/find/develop someone better. After a night of reflection, however, I think we bring Matt Diaz back up and give HIM 350 at-bats this year. If he flops, then we know he is just another AAAA hitter. If he hits, well then maybe we have something. Matt Stairs always has been and always will be Matt Stairs (he still has some trade value too, come stretch run time) and Emil Brown is, well, he's pretty much a poor-man's Aaron Guiel (and no, that's not very good). What have we got to lose with finding out about Diaz? Nothing, we are 7 and freaking 21 - we have lost everything there is to lose.

Contract wise, we are stuck with Long/Marrero platooning in left and now that Marrero has started to hit, that's fine. I like to watch Long play defense, he has saved runs this year on several occasions. These guys are nice placeholders until we make a trade (Affeldt for Kearns anyone?).

Ahh, there's the point of this entire diatribe, we absolutely have to make a trade for offense that DOES NOT TRADE AWAY THE LIMITED OFFENSE WE HAVE NOW (a/k/a Mike Sweeney). Otherwise, the Royals are simply back to square one and headed for yet another inept offensive season next year. One bat will not be enought to solve all our woes. One bat, Justin Huber and someone else (Diaz, Berroa...Butler dare we say?) could put us on the road to respectability.

The time is now, not next season. We have to begin getter better now, before this crop of young players decides that they cannot and will not ever win.

At Least it Was Not Another One Run Loss

2005-05-05T05:25:00.000-07:00

No, it was by two runs last night, although it might as well have been twelve. Despite collecting 9 hits, the Royals seemed light years away from catching the Sox once they tagged Runelvys Hernandez for three runs in the fourth.

For his part, Hernandez did a nice job of staying in the game, especially since I am certain he believes his pitching hand will just fall off from frostbite anytime the temperature is below 50 degrees. After luckily escaping the first three innings giving up just one run (at least 5 White Sox outs were absolute rockets early on) and getting hit hard for the three spot in the fourth, Runelvys settled down and pitched as well as he had all season. Like Brian Anderson the night before, it was not a great pitching performance, but solid - very solid.

The problem is that solid, sometimes even downright good, is not enough given this team's incredible inability to generate runs. Last night the Royals had FIVE players in the starting lineup whose on-base percentage was below .300. Shockingly, that group did place 13 runners on base, only to leave nine of them stranded. Let's face it, with David DeJesus in a minor slump right now, it is pretty much Mike Sweeney and then, well....I guess Matt Stairs is your next best hitter. Yikes.

DeJesus is still showing a good approach at the plate and I am confident this little dip in production will be followed by a nice hot streak. He's not the problem. I also was encouraged by Mark Teahen last night, not just because of the two hits (one to the opposite field, by the way), but also because he certainly looked like someone who had an idea what the strike zone was and what he wanted to do at the plate. It has only been two games, but Teahen looks like an entirely different player than the guy who started the season.

The problem is two-fold. One, we are very young and almost inevitably is seems as though we have Ruben Gotay or John Buck coming to the plate in crucial situations. Buck, to me, looks lost at the plate right now - similar to how he looked when he first came on board last season. He has been behind 0-1 in 30 of his 73 at-bats this season. To be honest, I do not know if that stat means anything, but I have a hunch it is an indication that when you are slumping 'you are taking strikes and swinging at balls'. I am firmly convinced that if you batted Ken Harvey, Angel Berroa and John Buck all in a row and threw ten consecutive pitches in the dirt, you could strike at least one of them out.

So, is there a solution to this mess? You have to play Berroa and Buck - too much invested and too much potential down the road. Same with Teahen and you have to find out about Gotay and now is as good a time as any. Probably you need to find out once and for all about Ken Harvey, too. He did pull a double down the line last night, but otherwise looked horrible at the plate (I could tell he had decided to swing at one two-strike pitch when he was adjusting his batting gloves - it was 18 inches outside and four inches off the ground, strike three swinging). For now, the options are somewhat limited, although I would shuffle that batting order if Teahen continues to look good at the plate (second spot, maybe?).

I keep looking down in Wichita where Justin Huber is hitting .378 with a .500 on-base percentage (22 walks), but you would have to DH him in the majors right now and that will not help him learn how to play first base, so one must be patient here (July maybe?). How about Aaron Guiel? Sure, he is hitting just .245 in AAA Omaha, but his on-base percentage is nearly 100 points higher. He will take a pitch and have professional at-bats and work his butt off, too, something that would not hurt to have on this team right now (see the articles on the Pena blowup last night to check the mental state of this ballclub).

And yes, I can hear you say that Aaron Guiel is not going to make us much better. He might, just might, make us a little better, however. Especially if you put him in right, platoon Marrero and Long in left (don't get cute, Tony, just freaking platoon them) and then platoon Harvey and Stairs at DH. Would that be enough to turn some of these close losses into close wins? Not all the time, no, but forty percent of the time, maybe.

This team is not trying to win 90 games. It doesn't really expect to even finish .500. The Royals just need to win SOME of the time; just enough to keep the young pitchers from being frustrated and just enough to plant the seed for next year's team that yes, we can win games.

The Good and the Bad

2005-05-04T05:36:00.000-07:00

GOOD
Tony Pena handled the pitchers almost exactly as I would have wanted.
BAD
Andy Sisco gave up the lead. You can make a case that the first two hits were a little cheap, but Everett's hit was a jolt and a half. As an aside, did you know that Carl Everett believes the moon landings were a hoax and that dinosaurs never roamed the Earth? Sisco did rally to strike out the last two hitters of the 8th, which I thought showed some mental ability to 'toughen up'. By the way, Sisco had given up 5 hits to the rest of league and 6 to the White Sox.

GOOD
Tony Pena pinch hit for Emil Brown with Terrance Long and for John Buck with Matt Stairs in the top of the 9th.
BAD
Royal pinch hitters are not zero for 15 on the season. Of course, it has to be hard to pitch when the umpire will call any pitch that doesn't physically come in contact with the ground a strike. Exactly what kept Matt Stairs from unloading on the home plate umpire after that called 3rd strike to end the game?

GOOD
Unlike some years, the Royals are competitive with the White Sox, playing three one run games out of four.
BAD
The Royals have lost all three games. Part of that is being a young team, especially one whose veterans have not had a history of winning. At times it has been bad managerial decisions, although last night it was more just a matter of a hot pitcher getting hit. 22 year old Rule V guys are not perfect, ya know.

GOOD
Mike Sweeney is absolutely on fire right now and is Eli Marrero. Sometimes hot hitting is contagious.
BAD
It better be a freaking epidemic. The Royals are last in the AL in on-base percentage, second to last in batting average and although up to 12th in runs scored, there is a 15 run gap to get to 11th. Plus, the more Marrero hits, the more Pena will want to play him against right handers.

Finally, while both Ruben Gotay and David DeJesus are in slumps, I am confident that DeJesus will be fine. However, Gotay's apparent inability to hit a breaking ball is of concern. The league has adjusted to his ability to catch up to and drive fastballs and hence Ruben has not seen many lately (see the KC Star article this morning). While I am not ready to give up on Gotay (especially since I was ready to sign him to a long term contract three weeks ago), it will be very interesting to see what he does over the month of May. Keep in mind, Donnie Murphy is off to a very good start in AA Wichita.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

2005-05-03T07:42:00.000-07:00

The 'highly reliable' ESPN.com Rumor Central today is speculating that the Texas Rangers have an interest in former Indians closer David Riske. Included in that column is that the Rangers also had expressed an interest in, among others, Mike MacDougal.

Now, my first question is have the Rangers gone completely insane? One of the few pitchers I would trust a game to less than MacDougal is Riske. The implosion quotient of both is among the top five in the league!

Sarcasm aside, however, if the Rangers are shopping for former closers perhaps the time is right to offer Jeremy Affeldt. Certainly they would need proof that Affeldt is healthy, but planting the seed now with an eye towards making a deal later would not hurt. There was no mention of what the Rangers would be willing to part with (as they were pursuing Riske and MacDougal, one would think they would be looking for something on the cheap), but Affeldt would certainly command more than either of the aforementioned gas cans.

As I discussed last night, a package deal (Affeldt and Anderson, Affeldt and Gobble, MacDougal and Anderson and Blanco...it goes on and on) might yield another offensive threat without giving up Sweeney. No, I am still not a 'Sweeney guy', but dammit you don't need many fingers to count the .300+ hitters with 25 home run potential in our organization.

After writing my blog last night, I started to think about potential trading partners and one team kept coming up: the Cubs. They are struggling with injuries in the pen, the rotation and in the middle infield...hmmm, Affeldt and Blanco and Anderson? I have read nothing to substantiate this, so take this simply as the rambling of a disturbed Royals fan, but Chicago does have a right handed hitter outfielder names Jason Dubois on their roster. All the twenty-six year old did last season in AAA Iowa was hit .316 with 31 homers, register an on-base pct of .389, slug at .630 clip and post a pretty decent OPS of 1.019. Again, no idea what it would take to pry him away from the Cubs, but a person can muse/dream/hope, can't he?

And Now for Something Entirely Different

2005-05-02T19:31:00.000-07:00

I have, since about June of last year, operated under the assumption that Mike Sweeney would, and should, be traded. After all, the Royals are in a youth movement and Sweeney does consume a big percentage of the payroll. Additionally, he is limited defensively and about to turn thirty-two. All of which has always pointed me in the direction of 'saving money for younger players and getting maybe two decent prospects in the deal'.

Now, before I proceed, let me say that the idea I am about to propose is not my own. A caller to the Soren Petro show on WHB radio today had the following idea: with our young pitchers coming into their own, we should keep all the offense we can and instead of being sellers at the trading deadline be buyers instead.

The caller's logic was based on three past Royal pitchers who all were basically at their best by their third seasons: Steve Busby, Dennis Leonard and Bret Saberhagen. He was using these three as a guide to what we can expect from Greinke, Hernandez and Bautista. Now, I do not believe that Busby and Leonard are good comparisions simply because times, and the way in which young pitchers are handled (babied), have changed since those two came up. Saberhagen probably is a better test case, but I opted to pick 10 very good American League starting pitchers instead. What follows is simply the ERA's of each pitcher for their first four seasons:

Mark Buehrle - 4.21, 3.29, 3.58, 4.14
Tim Hudson - 3.23, 4.14, 3.37, 2.98
Mark Mulder - 5.44, 3.45, 3.47, 3.13
Barry Zito - 2.72, 3.49, 2.75, 3.30
Freddy Garcia - 4.07, 3.91, 3.05, 4.39
Andy Pettitte - 4.17, 3.87, 2.88, 4.24
Brad Radke - 5.32, 4.46, 3.87, 4.30
C.C. Sabathia - 4.39, 4.37, 3.60, 4.12
Roy Halladay - 3.92, 10.64, 3.16, 2.93
Mike Mussina - 2.54, 4.46, 3.06, 3.29

Okay, these are ten very good starting pitchers and it is probably extremely presumptuous to say that Zack Greinke, Runelvys Hernandez and Denny Bautista are all going to end up on a list like this after four seasons. However, what the above list does show is that all ten had reached or were close to reaching a prime level of effectiveness by their third seasons (some by their second and some as rookies - I said these guys were very good).

That said is it too much of a stretch to put Greinke in the class of a Mulder or a Garcia by next season? How about Runelvys, who for all intensive purposes will be in his third year next season? Could he be a Halladay or a Radke? And could Bautista, just in his second season in 2006, be a Buehrle or Zito? Let's pretend for a moment they are, or at least 'poor man's' versions thereof.

One could assume that Justin Huber will be ready by 2006, but Butler, Maier et.al. almost certainly will not be. So we have Huber at first, still leaving room for Sweeney at DH (or vice versa). You have DeJesus, Buck and Berroa up the middle and hopefully Teahen anchoring third base. Decent to below average offensive pop wise. Conventional wisdom says trade Sweeney and the big contract and get something good in return (again Kevin Mench, Austin Kearnes, insert your outfielder here).

Let's expand the horizon a little. Outside of Sweeney, who could be of interest to other teams come the trading deadline? Brian Anderson (everyone loves lefty starters and he's been okay at times in the past), Matt Stairs (stop laughing, some teams will need a veteran left handed hitter with pop), Jeremy Affeldt (if Burgos is our closer and Sisco, Snyder and Wood our setup guys is Affeldt the key piece he once was?) or you could go into the minors for Andres Blanco, Donnie Murphy, Jimmy Gobble, Chris George - okay I threw George in there to make sure you were paying attention, but you get my point.

If you were the GM of a team on the playoff bubble come July, wouldn't you take a look at a left handed possible dominant closer like Affeldt? What if you packaged Affeldt and Anderson for a power hitting outfielder coming up on a big arbitration number? Even keeping Sweeney's salary, the Royals could ante up 7 or 8 million a year for a good player to go with all the promising youngsters and still probably not top out over 50 million in payroll.

Perhaps it is time to turn the tables on the trading deadline. Just because you're not in the playoff hunt THIS year, does not mean you cannot make trades for players that will immediately make you better and set you up to make a run NEXT year. With Aviles and Sanchez behind him in the minors and Berroa entrenched (whether he deserves to be or not), the Royals could move Blanco without sacrificing the future. Plus, with Gotay and Murphy, you could also trade a young promising second basemen - anybody want a double play combination for the next 5 seasons? I am not sure what it will take to pry the type of player or players we are wanting away from a team, but I know people would jump at a shot at Affeldt. Packaged correctly, the Royals would seem to have the ability to swing not one, but two deals for established or near-ready offensive talent.

The bottom line of my musing is simply that maybe we should hang on to Sweeney and build an offense to support a young pitching staff that could be very ready to be dominant as early as 2006.

Arms in the Minors

2005-05-02T07:47:00.000-07:00

It is nice to have two wins in a row. Amazing how it becomes easier to see the future now that it did just a few days ago. I have spent quite a bit of time on the bats in the Royals system and thought this off day would be good to look at some of the arms down on the farm. However, before moving onto the main subject, let me make one note on the weekend.

This column may often rag on Mike Sweeney for his poor defensive fielding (some of you may disagree, I think he's horrendous) and on what I perceive to be inadequate leadership qualities, BUT he sure is nice to have in your batting order. The 8th inning home run yesterday was absolutely huge, not only for the outcome of the game, but for a struggling team trying to learn how to win close games.

Okay, onto the subject line. With Sisco, Wood and Burgos settling down in the bullpen and Lima at least managing to keep us in games for five or six innings, the pressure is off on the farm system to provide help. Basically, with Burgos and Snyder called up, the system already has done its job. Let's take a look at what is going on for future reference.

OMAHA is not exactly boiling over with any exciting pitching at the moment (unless you are ready for another Chris George appearance - he is a fine AAAA pitcher, sarcasm intended). Op-Ed favorite and former Lincoln Saltdog Byron Embry is beginning to struggle, sporting a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings. Byron does have 9 strikeouts versus 3 walks, but I am wondering if will be able to get people out without a consistent second pitch.
D.J. Carrasco, a name from the past, has swung between the bullpen and the rotation for the O Royals and done a nice job: 2.53 ERA in 21.3 innings and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio. If, via injury or trade, Mike Wood moves into the starting rotation one would think that D.J. might be ticketed to take that role in the bullpen for KC.
A guy that came into camp with some publicity was Santiago Ramirez. After starting off the year on the disabled list, Ramirez had come on for Omaha and struck out 5 hitters in 5 innings without issuing a walk.
I could tell you what Nate Field is doing in Omaha, but does anyone really want to know?

Down in WICHITA, Colt Griffin has reverted to form and now has 15 walks in 15 2/3 innings versus 10 strikeouts. I believe that draft pick can officially be labeled a bust. On the plus side, in his second season in the Wichita rotation, Kyle Middleton has fashioned a nifty 2.30 ERA in 31 innings of work spanning 5 starts. He has allowed 26 hits and 8 walks while striking out 14. Although not really labeled a 'prospect', it will be interesting to see if he can jump over veteran free agents like Ryan Jensen, Dennis Tankersley and the always available Chris George and get into the Omaha rotation this season.

Two players really stand out for HIGH DESERT. 2004 first round pick J.P. Howell has a 1.71 ERA after five starts (26 innings). While he has issued 17 base on balls, Howell has also punched out 29 batters. He is joined in the High Desert rotation by John Gragg III, a 9th round pick in the 2003 draft, who has a 2.08 ERA in 26 innings spanning four starts. Gragg has an impressive 21 strikeouts to just 5 walks to start the season. What I really find encouraging about these numbers is that the California League is most definitely a hitters' league.

Although not ready yet, it does appear that the Royals have some promising young starters working their way up the system. With Lima and Anderson almost certain to be gone after this season, that will provide an oppportunity for some of these guys to compete with Kyle Snyder and Jimmy Gobble for those open spots.

Quick Hits

2005-04-30T07:35:00.000-07:00

Statistically, Mike Sweeney and Ken Harvey may be even defensively (see the blurb in the KC Star this morning) and in Tony Pena's mind, I'm sure they are, but please. Nevermind the error by Sweeney in the second last night - on a throw I'm not even sure you try to make, the man is virtually lost out there. Any ball hit in front of first is an absolute mystery to him. Had it not been for the athleticism of Zack Greinke on another play in the second inning, Sweeney would have been left holding the ball 50 feet from homeplate and looking at a bunch of safe baserunners. If he's playing first because we want to increase his trade value, fine. If he's playing first because Mike feels more comfortable playing both ways, then grow up and do what's best for the team, Captain. If he's playing first because Tony Pena really believes 'Mikey's doing a good job out there', then there's one more reason Tony won't survive the season.

Speaking of bad defense, how about that Emil Brown? First he plays tentatively on a ball hit over his head and slows down to watch it go directly over his head and bounce at the BOTTOM of the wall - an easy play, no, catchable, YES. Later Emil uncorks a relay throw to home that ends up being fielded by Grienke behind THIRD base. Hey, anywhere within a 90 foot radius is fine, Emil. And finally, a beautiful let-the-popfly-hit-you-in-the-chest error. Neither Sweeney or Brown's ineptness cost us the game last night (they didn't help), but do we have to look completely horrible when we lose?

Sometimes, I think Greinke is a little 'too cute' with his pitches. According to the RSTN radar, he never topped 91mph last night. I think a little more power and a little less finesse might be in order.

Mark Teahen is hitting well in Omaha on his rehab assignment and played back to back games last night for the first time with no ill effects. Question, who goes down when Teahen is activated? Emil Brown or Joe McEwing?

Speaking of Emil Brown (are you noticing a theme here?), why not Aaron Guiel in the outfield. He is hitting in the .250s in Omaha, but you know he will take some pitches and CATCH FLY BALLS. I was ready to be done with Aaron in spring training, but now, I see a place for him, maybe even batting second. Remember, he had a .345 OBP two years ago. On this club, that is a good number.

The forecast is for rain in Northern Ohio today - that may be the best result we can hope for at this point.

You can't win when...

2005-04-29T07:21:00.000-07:00

Probably no one will be suprised to learn that the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs scored. This team is, and will continue to be, offensively challenged. Overall, the Royals are hitting .240 with a .300 on-base percentage, an anemic .367 slugging percentage and a not very impressive OPS of .667. Again, no suprise to learn that KC is last or next to last in all these categories.

Still, that said, five of the last eight losses have been by one run. Many of these games have been ones that we, as Royals fans, feel the team has 'blown'. Losing by one run makes you look at the pitching staff: focusing on the run you gave up, not the run you scored. Shawn Camp and Nate Field have, and thankfully so, paid the price of this. However, what does happen to the Royal's offense when the game is late?

Overall Hitting: 240/300/367/667
7th Inning & on: 202/276/340/616

In all four categories, the Royals are absolutely last in each and every one from the 7th inning on. If it was not for the Cleveland Indians (speaking of fans who must be less than utopic right now), the Royals would be last by miles in all these categories.

It gets worse if you go to game situations that are 'Late and Close':

Overall Hitting: 240/300/367/667
7th Inning & on: 202/276/340/616
Late & Close: 195/256/322/578

Kansas City has the pitching to stay close in a lot of games this year. We've seen it even through this disasterous start. The bullpen, which was horrendous early, is slowly getting better. I believe the more we put him in situations, the better Sisco will become at keeping inherited runners from scoring (his only real fault so far). Burgos and Snyder just have too good a stuff not to be effective and Cerda and Wood, while not great, are decent. Yet, all that said (and hoped for), you have to score runs....and in close games you have to score runs late. You have to add an insurance run when you're up 3-2 in the 8th, you have to score two in 9th to win - not one to tie.

When you're hitting .240 as a team, you have to be better in crunch time then you are early. The White Sox are, the Twins are, even Cleveland is. Going down to 11 pitchers gives KC more offensive options late (maybe not better, but more anyway) and someday, someday, someone will get a pinch hit (Royal pinch hitters are currently 0-11).

The final piece to this late inning puzzle, in my opinion, is probably moving Emil Brown out in favor of Aaron Guiel, who has a history of being a decent clutch hitter, and probably further movement by mid-season to bring up a solid stick in Justin Huber. Even if we have to DH Huber this season (George Brett commented on WHB that Huber was pretty much lost at first base) we need his bat, because we need runs. Man, do we need runs.

Looking Ahead

2005-04-28T10:04:00.000-07:00

I am tired of this team, right now. Instead of writing about Brian Anderson taking the mound in the 7th or Shawn Camp taking the mound ever (well at least that's over for now) or Mike MacDougal and his incredible lack of intestinal fortitude or another one run loss or...you get the picture. Instead, I decided to take a shot at the KC lineup for opening day 2007. Maybe this will make us feel better.

NOTE: Numbers shown are BA/OBP/SLG for the current year)
NOTE 2: I'll save the 2007 pitching staff for another day when I am depressed.

Catcher
John Buck 196/250/286 (surely he'll get better)
Paul Phillips 257-316-314 in Omaha
Buck is here to stay and will hit for power if not average. Phillips will be a solid backup.

First Base
Justin Huber 369/481/600 in Wichita
You'll note that Mike Sweeney is not on this projection, simply because I think he will be traded this year or in the offseason. Huber does something few in the organization do - get on base. By 2007, he will have at least a season in majors under his belt and be ready to be one of the keys to the offense.

Second Base
Ruben Gotay 259/292/397 (by 2007 will he be one of the top 5 offensive 2b in the A.L.?)
If Gotay hits 259 for the entire year, then it is likely Donnie Murphy will be in this spot. You hope that Ruben hits like we all think he can.

Shortstop
Angel Berroa 220/256/329 (by 2007 MAYBE he'll be back to 2003 form)
I have not given up on Angel yet and I projected before the season started that he may end up with numbers more in the range of 2004 than in 2003, but that he would get back to his ROY form in 2006. If so, he could be a solid bottom of the lineup hitter and hopefully a defensive stabilizer. (Yes, I know that's a little odd sounding, but I really do think he could be great defensively and No, Angel will still not be taking a walk in 2007).

Third Base
Mark Teahen 200/294/333
Probably not an All-Star, but should be a doubles hitting machine by then and hopefully by that point will form a very good defensive left side of the infield with Berroa.

Utility
Donnie Murphy 308/392/415
Mike Aviles 289/316/500
Murphy is a great defensive second bagger who is hitting well early in Wichita. If he suddenly becomes a force offensively, look for Gotay to be moved in a trade.
Aviles is a solid, fiesty player who is also hitting will early in Wichita. A shortstop by trade, he might be a younger (and better) Graffanino by 2007.
I am assuming Andres Blanco will be in another organization, or Angel Berroa will be and Blanco will be at short by 2007.

Left Field
Mitch Maier 342/402/553 at High Desert
He has not stolen bases in High Desert but has in the past. Could be a leadoff type, allowing DeJesus to hit 2nd or 3rd in the order. My guess is he will be a rookie in 2007. Butler probably, too, but a rookie on either side of DeJesus is better than we're throwing out there right now.

Center Field
David DeJesus 315/390/466
Still won't be able to steal a base, but who cares? This guy is a player - I expect a .390 OBP, 40 doubles and 15 homers season after season. As I mentioned above, I think he may develop enough as a hitter to hit 2nd or 3rd in the order.

Right Field
Billy Butler 368/455/671 at High Desert
Yes the California League is pretty much slo-pitch softball, but this guy can absolutely rake. Maybe the DH, but you hate to pencil in a 22 year old at that position and I've put him in right just because you have to him in the lineup. Again, this might be Butler's rookie season, but he sure seems like the kind of guy that is just going to hit and hit and hit some more.

Fourth Outfielder
Chris Lubanski 173-229-333 at High Desert
He started slowly last year, too. May not be an every day guy ever, but he's better than Emil Brown. Shane Costa figures into the mix here, too, and he's also off to a slow start this year. Truthfully, the four and five spots in the outfield would very likely be filled by veterans if, in fact, Butler and Maier are both starting in 2007.

Designated Hitter
Ken Harvey 375/403/569 in Omaha
Yes, I can hear the howls already, but he may yet turn the corner and be serviceable.

All of the above assumes Sweeney is traded at some point, but assumes no starting player in return - which is probably unlikely. A better scenario has a Kevin Mench or (insert your favorite corner outfielder here) in right or left, with Butler sliding to DH or Maier getting another year in the minors - something along those lines.
To be contending with this group, we are banking on DeJesus being very good (highly likely), Huber being very good (pretty likely), Teahen becoming the solid, if unspectacular, hitter and 3b we traded for (likely), Berroa returning to form (somewhat likely), Gotay developing into an offensive force (maybe), and the organization developing not one, but two, good corner outfielders (the track record says unlikely - but Butler and Maier really look like they can play).
Keep in mind, this team will STILL be young in 2007 - no one under 30 is listed above - but it will have some experience by then.
At least, you can see some hope to be a good offensive team by then - something that you can't really hope for this year.

Little Things Once More

2005-04-27T05:04:00.000-07:00

Another one run loss, another string of unfortunate events, another day in the life of the Royals.

Once again, KC was undone by a number of factors. First young Burgos, who quite frankly had the best stuff I have seen in a long, long time, gives up two broken bat singles. His only real mistake was the one out walk. Backing up a step, I probably stick with Sisco in the ninth, only because he has shown that once he gets by one or two hitters, he pretty much becomes unhittable. However, at the time, I had no real problem with the change and really can't fault it even now.

However, in that horrid ninth inning (are there any other kind for the Royals?), another 'little thing' cropped up that is truly the root of the problem for this team. Runners on first and second, one out, a ground ball to McEwing at third. Not a great ball to try to turn a double play on, but Shannon Stewart did have a bad wheel. McEwing makes a good, and smart, play and tags the bag at third to get the lead runner....then he uncorks a bad throw to first. Bad decision? Maybe - probably. Bad throw? Definitely. Wild throw? No.
Marrero, once again playing first base with his boxing gloves on, come well off the bag, positions himself to catch the short hop, and promptly kicks in around long enough for Minnesota to end up with runners on first and THIRD, instead of first and second. Lew Ford, the next batter, as we all know, loops a 107 foot self defense looping girly hit just over Graffanino to score the go ahead run.
Now, McEwing could have held the ball or set himself and made a better throw (I'm not sure we get Stewart no matter how good of a throw he might have made) or Marrero could have stopped the ball (it was not that hard of a play). Any one of those three things, just one, and the runner is at second and probably does not try to score on the Ford single or maybe gets thrown out (Emil Brown fielded the ball about 14 feet from second base, running towards home plate).
My point is, all the bad luck and young pitching in the world, might not have hurt the Royals had two veterans made one out of three good, not great, decisions or plays.

Second 'little thing', and I have to admit that it did not dawn on me until after the play occured, so it is hard to really assess any blame here (but then, I am writing this blog and Tony Pena IS managing the Royals, so maybe I can blame him).
Two outs in the bottom of the 8th, the Twins intentionally walk Sweeney to get to Marrero (who actually had TWO hits by the way). Marrero grounds to the shortstop, kind of a squirrely ground ball that he does not field clearly and throws Sweeney out at second on a very close play. Question: Sweeney is the DH, should Gotay have been running for him? Would Ruben, who has to be two steps quicker than Sweeney, have beaten the throw to second and kept the inning alive? Just a thought and a pretty deep one given that I have almost never seen a manager pinch run for the trailing runner. Well, except for Ron Gardenhire doing exactly that for Shannon Stewart in the next inning.

Five Steps to Fix the Royals

2005-04-26T05:26:00.000-07:00

The title line may be a bit misleading in that nothing is going to turn this 5-14 team into a 91-71 team THIS season, but this is where we could start on the road to being the team we all envision/hope/pray for in 2006/2007.

STEP NUMBER ONE - Fundamental Accountability

I have discovered from watching and talking sports that there are two sects of fans: those who believe the coach has a great deal of effect on the outcome and those who think it is almost all the players who decide the outcome. I like to think of myself as somewhere in between. However, a football team that has a load of penalties, is continually rushing to get a play off and is loathsome on special teams is one I consider poorly coached. Likewise, a baseball team that misses signs, blows routine plays and generally is sloppy in field is also poorly managed.
Yes, the players are the ones that have to execute, but throwing to cutoff men, covering bases on a bunt, running down runners who have been picked off base are things that good teams do. Actually, bad Little League teams do these things most of the time.
If I was in charge (I am in my own mind, but that's another issue), I would sit down with Tony Pena with a simple ultimatum: Two weeks from today, I start keeping score. Every time we blow a sacrifice bunt, miss a hit and run, generally screw up something that is FUNDAMENTALLY basic to the game of baseball, Pena loses a point. I would even be generous and give him one 'free' screw up a game (these are humans, not machines out there). Every time we do something fundamentally correct in the same vein, he gains a point. Under this scoring system, I would think a score of 7 or above was 'good baseball'. At the All-Star Break, we would sit down and evaluate that score - THAT WOULD BE THE SINGLE CRITERIA UNDER WHICH TONY PENA EITHER CONTINUES TO MANAGE THE ROYALS OR IS FIRED.

STEP NUMBER TWO - Feet to the Fire in the Bullpen

I have stated before that many of us, myself included, expect perfection from every relief pitcher every time they come into the game. Obviously, this is not realistic. However, I also think that the Royals have, to some extent, coddled the relief pitchers that they think are really good. Sure, the Baird express between Omaha and KC is always full of relief pitchers, but I am not talking about the Shawn Camps of the world that every team has five of and constantly is shuttling around to find the two that have the hot hand. (Not really intended to insult Camp, here, but he is what he is - an adequate middle relief guy, nothing more)
No, my focus here is Mike MacDougal, Jaime Cerda, Jeremy Affeldt and to some extent Burgos and Sisco. In my opinion, MacDougal is a mental wimp - consistently waiting for something bad to happen. Let's find out right now if this guy 'has it'. Give MacDougal two weeks to pitch in every save situation and every tie or close game (within reason). Simply put, I would say "Mike, you have two weeks to show me you're worth any more time". If he performs great, if not, he's gone. I would do the same for Cerda. Put all the pressure in the world on them and see if they can perform.
Once Affeldt came back and got himself healthy. I would do the same, maybe even worse, as I am tired of hearing and seeing all this potential and not getting any real results out of it. I think Jeremy might just respond to this time of 'tough love' and maybe develop that closer mentality that he needs and is quite frankly currently lacking.

STEP NUMBER THREE - Trade Mike Sweeney
“We don't have a team like the New York Yankees where we just go out there and roll our gloves and bats out and blow people away,” Sweeney said. “We have to do the little things to win games. Getting guys over to second and third with no outs. Getting guys in with one out. Making the plays defensively. Right now we aren't doing any of it.”

This is the type of comment that Sweeney always breaks out that always makes me mad. I don't want my team captain telling me how much better another team is than we are. Besides, have you watched Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez play baseball? They are pretty darn good fundamentally.
Sweeney is an $11 million a year designated hitter. Yes, he is by all accounts a good guy. Yes, he can rake when he's healthy. No, he could not field his way out of wet paper sack. No, he is not a good leader - not for a young team, anyway (we need Brett and McRae scaring the hell out these guys, not some easy-going 'it will all work out' guy).
His contract escalates with a trade, but sometime between now and July, a contending team will need a right handed bat like Mike's. You won't get three everyday players for him as we did with Beltran. You might get a decent corner outfielder (Kevin Mench) and a prospect. You have to be willing to take the NFL approach (best talent available) as opposed to trying to plug a specific hole.
Make the deal, save the money, sign the younger players who have earned it (DeJesus, Greinke, et.al.) and move forward. There are 42 first base/dh types in the farm system, somewhere between Harvey, Santos, Huber, Butler, etc. there is an impact bat to fill this void in the coming years.

STEP NUMBER FOUR - Pick a Lineup, Any Lineup

Eli Marrero was brought in to face left handed pitching. Eventually Eli Marrero will hit lef handed pitching. Eli Marrero has never hit right handed pitching. Eli Marrero will never hit right handed pitching. That is why he is Eli Marrero and not Bobby Abreu.
Define the roles, throw out your lineup and let it play for a couple of months. Managing by 'feel' is not getting it done.
If Long and Marrero are platooning in left, then play it that way. If Gotay is your second basemen, then he plays second all the time. Is he going to bat second? Fine, put him there for two months and find out if he can hit enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. If we don't have the right combinations to keep Matt Stairs off the field when a lefty is throwing, bring up someone who fits into that role.
155 lineups per year did not work for Bob Boone - and it won't work for Tony Pena.

STEP NUMBER FIVE - Reconcile yourself that you are not smarter than everyone else.

David DeJesus is never going to steal bases. He will be an excellent player, maybe a two hitter instead of leadoff. Stop thinking you can make him into one. Long and Marrero are platoon players, you can't make them suddenly stars. Angel Berroa is always going to swing at bad pitches - some guys are like that - Tony Pena was like that. Bat him low in the order, let him be aggressive, because sometimes those bad pitches go over the fence.
Not every pitcher needs to be 'adjusted'. Abraham Nunez will never be a major league player, Emil Brown probably won't either.
Find the talent (Butler, Huber for example), put the talent somewhere where they can comfortably play (not 3rd base for godssake!) and let them be who they are. The Royals have this tendency to believe they can take castoffs and make them good. They constantly believe they have the 'steal' of the amateur draft, when in reality 4 out of 5 'steals' are really just guys that everyone else already decided can't play.
In short, stop this bottom feeder mentality and realize that you are seeing the same things that every other team sees when they look at players. Go get, and keep, players that everyone knows are good. Don't be the guy in the fantasy league that his always scouring the second page of available players for the one guy who will hit two home runs in a game and 1 the rest of the season.

Andres Blanco Update

2005-04-25T05:07:00.000-07:00

Late last week someone on a discussion board wondered about Andres Blanco being moved to second base. I dutifully reviewed the Omaha box scores, found that Blanco had played all of his games at shortstop and dismissed the fan as uninformed.

Low and behold, Allard Baird commented this weekend that Blanco was 'working out' at second base as his way to the majors was blocked by Angel Berroa. To me, this tells me they are thinking of making Blanco a utility infielder. First, Blanco doesn't hit enough to play second base in the majors, he may not even hit enough to play shortstop. Second, Ruben Gotay (despite a 3-20 slump) appears to be locking down the second base job and if he falters, Donnie Murphy is hitting the ball in AA and is a far better defender.

Although he dazzled Royal fans last year with his great defense and suprising .317 average in his short stint in KC, Blanco had committed four errors for Omaha already this year and is currently hitting .196 with a .268 on-base percentage. Blanco has never hit with any sort of 'impressiveness' at any level - not a good fit on a team already struggling to score runs.

Does working out at second make Blanco a more attractive piece of a trade puzzle? Or does it signal his move from 'prospect' to 'utility guy'?